Thank You Mine That Bird

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

i doubt anyone even knew he was a gelding. i didn't pay one bit of attention to him going in. did anyone?
maybe people who bet him mistook him for summer bird-it happened last year when people bet big truck instead of big brown.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by CSC

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

Because after Giacomo no longshots seem to go off at their " correct " odds in the win pool. He was closer to his appropriate odds ( 150:1ish ) in the exotic pools.

[CSC]

I didn't even think of this till now, but the RA with all in the derby/oaks double must have been a big payoff. Travis touched on that this week if a longshot came in for the latter part of the double.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by BOMBTHREAT

Mike Smith or MTB?

YES. I was hoping some one would seize the joke. I was setting it up for someone. Bravo.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm not sure whether the beyers failed as poorly as any other method of handicapping but I would like to know why this crop WAS considered eons stronger than last year's before the Derby and after today I read descriptions of "mediocrity" right and left.
Obviously QR And IWR are nice horses so besides them who makes this crop so much stronger than last years crop if the remaining runners in today's race are mediocre?

Which makes the Preakness an even more interesting race IF they run, many answers to questions we(I) need answered.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

YES. I was hoping some one would seize the joke. I was setting it up for someone. Bravo.

the joke has been played for two years, thats why no one really replied.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

the joke has been played for two years, thats why no one really replied.

The poster who ever so cleverly fell for it has, apparently, been busy for the last two years.

Papa Clem really threw in a clunker. Had an absolute dream trip and was bullied out of 2nd and 3rd. I call it the Gary Stute lean.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Papa Clem really threw in a clunker. Had an absolute dream trip and was bullied out of 2nd and 3rd. I call it the Gary Stute lean.

He is an ok horse, the best two horses in socal got hurt, and the third best only won a mdn before getting hurt.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A Speed figure - if accurate - only tells you how fast a horse ran final time wise given the inherent speed of the race track.

IWR and QR ran extremely fast races without smoke and mirorrs. Genuine great performances.

FF had one perfect trip after another. I liked Pioneer of the Nile better than him and picked him above FF. And even though FF's form is overrated he ran way too bad to be believed today. Something happened.

Dunkirk figured to get his education today - and I certainly don't believe he's as much horse as Quaility Road right now. He ran too bad to be true and will bounce back as well.

Dunkirk was my pick and It is likely he has more upside than all but the "other" bird horse but it certainly isn't inconceivable that anyone in today's race could come back in the Preakness and run huge.As a matter of fact it was just a few years ago that a lightly raced horse got an education in the derby and came back to nose out the Derby winner in the Preakness after getting crushed in the Derby.

So with similar reasoning in which many experts used to answer the question "who is the horse that will show improvement going from synthetic to dirt for the first time" and answer "I'm not sure but if you do choose one don't take the short price" then Summer Bird rather than Dunkirk should be the choice over Calvin Borail in the Preakness.
future Preakness result
1-Summer Bird by nose over
2-Mine that Bird by (indeterminate at this time) over
3-POTN (equates to Hard Spun only in finishing position from derby to preakness) (If I remember correctly without looking)

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by CSC

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

Would have thrown in the 2 prep rule but that has long been debunked.

Maybe I missed something in the story along the way, but I don't understand why brisnet.com had Richard Mandella
listed as the trainer of Mine That Bird the day prior to the post position draw.

Here's the link, in case it still works:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf

[PatCummings]

Agree wholeheartedly with Blackthroatedwind. If Mine That Bird DOES NOT win the race, the final time would have been in the 2:03.40 range - awful.

I'm absolutely baffled at how the track remained sloppy the entire day. There was no rain over the eight hour period from opening changes to the Derby...and it still looked like there was standing water on the track. Compared to last year - even though there was sun on Saturday, there was a TON of rain on Friday, and all through the night, and the track was fast by mid-card.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Agree wholeheartedly with Blackthroatedwind. If Mine That Bird DOES NOT win the race, the final time would have been in the 2:03.40 range - awful.

I'm absolutely baffled at how the track remained sloppy the entire day. There was no rain over the eight hour period from opening changes to the Derby...and it still looked like there was standing water on the track. Compared to last year - even though there was sun on Saturday, there was a TON of rain on Friday, and all through the night, and the track was fast by mid-card.

there were very strong winds that year that helped dry the track out. Today there was no sun and no wind

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

Would have thrown in the 2 prep rule but that has long been debunked.

He should've been 500-1. People who bet him to win got jipped majorly.

[letswastemoney]

Mine That Bird beat Advice in Sunland....would anyone have been as shocked if Advice won??? Maybe those Sunland figures really aren't accurate. Good horses run at Sunland almost never, so maybe something just got messed up when calculating those speed figures.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's not about Jon White. He has earned the right to have a strong opinion and he was hardly embarrassed today.

The bottom line is that Hold That Bird saved us from enduring a lot of falsehoods about what would have been a dramatically misunderstood result.

It wouldn't have been misunderstood for long, what with you setting the record straight for us and all.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The ride by Borel was totally epic anyway.

He had him back so far behind the next to last horse early on that even the mud kicked up probably couldn't reach him.

Watching Calvin's interview again and thinking about what he meant reveals a few possible reasons for his gelding's success.

1) The track took the heart out of almost all of them over 10F's except his horse whom he saved til the last quarter as he was so far back after the initial half he was out of the picture but his horse hadn't started the race yet. Classic tortise and hare stuff....

2) The time, though slow, is irrelevant as this Derby was won by racing strategy not speed but stamina over a last 1/4 while MTB must have run ridiculous time for the 1/4, 1/2 and 6f's splits showing how occasionally over rated ES is on tiring tracks and poly quick sand.

3) "Fatigue makes cowards of us all" doesn't just apply to football player's

4) Calvin was right on the money when he said his was the only one running at he end......an obvious strategy the "slow minded" southern connections used to the detriment of faster smarter more expensive colts in the race.

"Intelligence is taking the same information available to everyone else and doing something different with it than most to achieve an outcome nobody else could attain"......

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ELA

He did. I think that the PP's will still show a fast track. It didn't start pouring until after the race, but I think the track was off before and during. After the race, I saw an ark float by.

Eric

I was fortunate enough to watch this race from the winners circle... I was dry until immediately after the race.

[SOREHOOF]

Birdstone is 23% with mud starters. My sister was looking for a longshot, when she mentioned MTB I told her he should be a million to one. I should have kept my mouth shut.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He should've been 500-1. People who bet him to win got jipped majorly.

I think the Giacomo syndrome is still hanging around. And next year will be no different after this result.