Is Haskin joking?

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I don't think that Big Brown will be near 2-1 on Derby day. Actually, I have a feeling that people are going to get cold feet about him on that day. Unless there are unusual workouts by him or Colonel John, I don't think that he'll be favored. Colonel John will be favored. And I'm thinking about 5-1 at that, with BB just in behind him.

........ i think he will be one of the biggest favorites we have seen in a while. whatever, if he loses its just another race for me to crumble up my tote. i think its a lock b.b / pyro exacta ( wow, that should pay alot )

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I don't think that Big Brown will be near 2-1 on Derby day. Actually, I have a feeling that people are going to get cold feet about him on that day. Unless there are unusual workouts by him or Colonel John, I don't think that he'll be favored. Colonel John will be favored. And I'm thinking about 5-1 at that, with BB just in behind him.

You are out of your damn mind if you think BB is going to be 5/1. One good work out of him and he is easily 2/1, even with medicore works, he is 3/1

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Are you talking an Arazi-like favorite (.90) or more along the lines of Fusaichi Pegasus (2.30)?

...... i forgot about arazi......... my buddy put 1 dime on him and stormed out of the casino for the rest of the day prob F.P

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Big Brown will be the favorite - of this I have no doubt.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

I can see your point, but in my opinion he is head and shoulders the best horse of the crop based on what he did in the BC Classic. He certainly is the most talented horse of the class while Rags, Street S and AGS have all been retired. He's shown his versatilty by being able to handle most tracks and his durabilty by still racing today.

i disagree. he beat hard spun in the fall by about the same margin as street sense in the spring-the same street sense who finished behind hard spun more than once. they all took turns beating each other (don't forget hard spun was ahead of curlin in the derby) and beating a woefully inadequate group of older horses in the classic.
the only reason anyone would call curlin head and shoulders above the rest is that he remains in training, for the moment.
i'd call last years crop better than average, as there were several who ran top races-but i'd also say they were all pretty even talent-wise. no absolute stand out from last year imo.
also, don't forget this is curlins second year racing, he didn't race at two like some of his peers. also might have to give the nod to street sense really as far as overall talent, as he was the champ at two, and then won the derby.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

look, I feel Curlin is head and shoulders the best of the group.
its just for me I only became totally sure of that later in the year. If you were sure about it early on, good for you because you were right.

i agree with your assessment on him 100%, he was the only one that could win a race that wasn't handed to him.

I think you and I were among the very few on here last year that could see through the Street Sense mystique. why he went off as the favorite in the classic is a mystery to me, off of his loss to Hard Spun and his titanic struggle with Grasshopper.

i don't recall any given saturday handing the tampa bay derby to street sense, or grasshopper later in the summer for that matter. rags didn't get a gift in the belmont either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't recall any given saturday handing the tampa bay derby to street sense, or grasshopper later in the summer for that matter. rags didn't get a gift in the belmont either.

AGS obviously got out-tripped in the Tampa Derby - Grasshopper was lightly raced and was to short on foundation to be expected to hold off a Derby winner at 10f's - even that Derby winner.

Rags didn't have a great trip in the Belmont - but a slow paced 12 furlong dirt race is what she best projected for in my opinion.

[Danzig]

i just think that it was a pretty even crop-they each won a good race, but no one really showed dominance. running at four does not automatically make a horse 'better' than his peers who have retired-as if the horse has control over that.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How many 3yo champions go through a season undefeated?

No one said he wasnt the best horse in the end but he was far from undefeated, especially against the three year olds. He lost the derby, he lost the belmont, he won the Preakness by a nose, he lost the haskell. That is NOT heads and shoulders above anybody. Did he wind up as the best horse? Yes. But to say he was heads and shoulders above the other three year olds is hindsight. He ran in six 3 yo stakes i believe and lost half of them. The win over Lawyer Ron was nice but Lawyer Ron was beaten badly by the other three year olds next out so he is a poor measuring stick. He was very good in the BC and i guess these days thats all that counts. He would be heads and shoulders against this group this year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No one said he wasnt the best horse in the end but he was far from undefeated, especially against the three year olds. He lost the derby, he lost the belmont, he won the Preakness by a nose, he lost the haskell. That is NOT heads and shoulders above anybody.

You act like he wasn't clearly the best horse coming into the Derby - and you act like you didn't even bother to watch any of those four races you speak of - just happened to notice the final results.

He had an impossible trip in the Derby, he was MUCH better than his margin of victory in the Preakness, he was caught inside behind a slow pace in the Belmont and still answered the bell, and he had an impossible task in the Haskell racing wide off of a layoff over a track where the rail was extremely live.

If you want to pretend like that series of four races proved that he wasn't conclusively better than the rest of the 3yo males - go on.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't recall any given saturday handing the tampa bay derby to street sense, or grasshopper later in the summer for that matter. rags didn't get a gift in the belmont either.

If they were all still racing today, Curlin would go off at even money against any of last years group. nostalgically looking back at what happened in the Tampa Bay Derby, Kentucky Derby or Belmont does not do justice to what Curlin evolved into.
but yes kudos to multiple gr1 winner Street Sense for gallantly holding off the first level allowance winner Grasshopper at Saratoga. It was his last victory. Street Sense never beat older horses, but Curlin has done so 4 straight times including the breeders cup and DWC.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You act like he wasn't clearly the best horse coming into the Derby - and you act like you didn't even bother to watch any of those four races you speak of - just happened to notice the final results.

He had an impossible trip in the Derby, he was MUCH better than his margin of victory in the Preakness, he was caught inside behind a slow pace in the Belmont and still answered the bell, and he had an impossible task in the Haskell racing wide off of a layoff over a track where the rail was extremely live.

If you want to pretend like that series of four races proved that he wasn't conclusively better than the rest of the 3yo males - go on.

You are absolutely correct in modern day thinking. It is not what they did, it is what might have happened if everything worked out. You have a huge career in the breeding business (horses)

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If they were all still racing today, Curlin would go off at even money against any of last years group. nostalgically looking back at what happened in the Tampa Bay Derby, Kentucky Derby or Belmont does not do justice to what Curlin evolved into.
but yes kudos to multiple gr1 winner Street Sense for gallantly holding off the first level allowance winner Grasshopper at Saratoga. It was his last victory. Street Sense never beat older horses, but Curlin has done so 4 straight times including the breeders cup and DWC.

i was replying to a comment that said no one but curlin won without a race being handed to them, i disagree with that contention. the season lasts all years, regardless of how each horse started or finished it, you have to consider the entire season.
also, keep in mind that curlin was not the only one to defeat older, hard spun and any given saturday did as well. i think it was a level crop, with curlin only getting a nod now because he is still racing. of course you can only speculate on how good the others would be-but i don't think you can knock them back a few pegs on how they did last year, due to the fact they aren't racing this year.
the breeders cup had the same hard spun, street sense, etc that curlin faced all year. the older horses were laughable last year.
i think curlin is a good horse who is being elevated by many due to having the best of circumstances more so than the best of talent.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i was replying to a comment that said no one but curlin won without a race being handed to them, i disagree with that contention. the season lasts all years, regardless of how each horse started or finished it, you have to consider the entire season.
also, keep in mind that curlin was not the only one to defeat older, hard spun and any given saturday did as well. i think it was a level crop, with curlin only getting a nod now because he is still racing. of course you can only speculate on how good the others would be-but i don't think you can knock them back a few pegs on how they did last year, due to the fact they aren't racing this year.
the breeders cup had the same hard spun, street sense, etc that curlin faced all year. the older horses were laughable last year.
i think curlin is a good horse who is being elevated by many due to having the best of circumstances more so than the best of talent.

First of all I think the 3 yr old crop of 2007 was one of the deepest crops we have seen in awhile, but I am curious do you really believe that Hard Spun's Gr.2 Kentucky Cup Stks win or Any Given Saturday's Gr. 2 Brooklyn Hdcp against older compares to Curlin's Gr.1 wins in the Gr.1 Jockey Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic?

Second point I would like to address, is yes Curlin is still racing. But it is not without risk of tarnishing his reputation. Horses that prematurely retire avoid the risk of exposure. We won't know this about the others, but Street Sense rode a 2 horse losing streak into retirement, Rags to Riches lost in the Gazelle before retiring. Though it can be argued that these horses had already peaked or caught favorable scenarios or not. One thing cannot be argued is Curlin continued to ascend in his performances. Aren't traits in consistency and durabilty in a racehorse a sign of superiority?

Finally we can nitpick over individual races at nauseum, however certain races carry more weight and whether we like it or not, The Breeders Cup Classic is the defining moment when comparing these horses. All of the horses had long campaigns, I'm sure if Street Sense had won the race we would not be arguing who was the best 3 yr old of 2007? Wouldn't we? But the fact is none of the others were in the same league of Curlin that day, objectively to ignore that, I believe one is not truly examining all the factors at work here nor are they are accurately weighing them.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

First of all I think the 3 yr old crop of 2007 was one of the deepest crops we have seen in awhile, but I am curious do you really believe that Hard Spun's Gr.2 Kentucky Cup Stks win or Any Given Saturday's Gr. 2 Brooklyn Hdcp against older compares to Curlin's Gr.1 wins in the Gr.1 Jockey Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic?

Second point I would like to address, is yes Curlin is still racing. But it is not without risk of tarnishing his reputation. Horses that prematurely retire avoid the risk of exposure. We won't know this about the others, but Street Sense rode a 2 horse losing streak into retirement, Rags to Riches lost in the Gazelle before retiring. Though it can be argued that these horses had already peaked or caught favorable scenarios or not. One thing cannot be argued is Curlin continued to ascend in his performances. Aren't traits in consistency and durabilty in a racehorse a sign of superiority?

Finally we can nitpick over individual races at nauseum, however certain races carry more weight and whether we like it or not, The Breeders Cup Classic is the defining moment when comparing these horses. All of the horses had long campaigns, I'm sure if Street Sense had won the race we would not be arguing who was the best 3 yr old of 2007? Wouldn't we? But the fact is none of the others were in the same league of Curlin that day, objectively to ignore that, I believe one is not truly examining all the factors and accurately weighing them.

i agree with you on the depth of the crop. my contention in this discussion is that curlin is not 'head and shoulders' above his peers.
also, the breeders cup is a defining moment, but i would disagree that it is THE defining moment. i would also take a moment to remind everyone that street sense was a top horse two years running, and now curlin has the chance to show the same thing. also a reminder that street sense did something no horse had done before, in winning the bcj and the derby. i would disagree that no horse was in the same league as curlin, with the second place finisher in the derby also the second place finisher in the bcc. discussing weaknesses in a horses rivals does not make a horse look better.
case in point- you mention rags' loss in the gazelle- that being the same rags who beat curlin at belmont. i would say that every horse showed some tenacity, and every horse also showed moments of weakness. i am taking nothing away from curlin by saying he was better-but not head and shoulders better.

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If they were all still racing today, Curlin would go off at even money against any of last years group. nostalgically looking back at what happened in the Tampa Bay Derby, Kentucky Derby or Belmont does not do justice to what Curlin evolved into.
but yes kudos to multiple gr1 winner Street Sense for gallantly holding off the first level allowance winner Grasshopper at Saratoga. It was his last victory. Street Sense never beat older horses, but Curlin has done so 4 straight times including the breeders cup and DWC.

Nafzger never used an illegal edge in his life. His horses were never drugged. However, Assmussen's all are. Thus, I think Street Sense is a significantly better horse and will be a top notch sire. Curlin will be a bust.

Name me one Assmussen runner that went on to be a top notch sire. I can think of at least one Nafzger runner that went on to great things as a sire, Unbridled.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Are you talking an Arazi-like favorite (.90) or more along the lines of Fusaichi Pegasus (2.30)?

When did they eliminate a field bet with 14 entries? I think it was right after FP, give or take a year. The days of a .90 favorite are likely gone with 20 seperate entries. I think BB will go off in the 3-1 range when it's said and done.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You act like he wasn't clearly the best horse coming into the Derby - and you act like you didn't even bother to watch any of those four races you speak of - just happened to notice the final results.

He had an impossible trip in the Derby, he was MUCH better than his margin of victory in the Preakness, he was caught inside behind a slow pace in the Belmont and still answered the bell, and he had an impossible task in the Haskell racing wide off of a layoff over a track where the rail was extremely live.

If you want to pretend like that series of four races proved that he wasn't conclusively better than the rest of the 3yo males - go on.

This is more of what was discussed a few weeks ago whereby any trip cap post mortum allows the annointing of whomever the advocate cares to advance. It's you doing the pretending by being unable to take out of the equation the post-Derby knowledge... Trot out whatever after-the-fact conclusion you want to, but Curlin wasn't "clearly the best horse coming into the Derby."

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am certainly no Assmussen fan, but this post is silly, for many reasons. All of Assmussen's horses are drugged? Come on. I was about as big a Street Sense fan around here, but it's obvious now, that Curlin is a better horse. Question, did Helen Pitts drug Curlin also, because he ran a pretty good race for her?

Not to mention Curlin ran two pretty nice races over in Dubai.

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am certainly no Assmussen fan, but this post is silly, for many reasons. All of Assmussen's horses are drugged? Come on. I was about as big a Street Sense fan around here, but it's obvious now, that Curlin is a better horse. Question, did Helen Pitts drug Curlin also, because he ran a pretty good race for her?

Sorry---when you are caught cheating as many times as Assmussen has been, I choose not to believe a SINGLE accomplishment on its merit.

Not saying Curlin would be a $5k claimer in another barn but I can't dignify his efforts when he is managed by a cheater like Steve A.