Dubai Carnival Contest II

[viscount26]

1. Warsaw

2. Jonquil Nap

3. Dynamic Style

4. City Style

5. JJ The Jet Plane

6. Rocks Off

7. Kirklees

[brockguy]

Not having a good day so far, summed up by Jet Express but hoping to turn things round down the stretch starting with Balcarce Nov and Jargelle!

[brockguy]

City Style looks like a nice horse -

JJ The Jet Plane should be far too strong for these but at 1-2 and first time on dirt, I have to lay him.. and I took a little bit of Terrific Challenge at 75-1!

[brockguy]

The real JJ didnt show up there, he might need the turf, but that would severly limit his options in the desert.

The big one coming up next - Godolphin hold all the aces here, but have to go with a price so each ways on Redding and Blues and Rock!

[brockguy]

one last chance today - Kirkless/Barbaricus/With Interest/Hello Morning Exacta Box!

[PatCummings]

In case anyone missed it, here's the story about Vineyard Haven's fourth place finish - here is the story with access to the chart.

http://dubairacenight.com/vineyard-h...n-dubai-debut/

[PatCummings]

Hoff - not bad on Mr. Brock - who ran into a ton of trouble at the top of the lane.

[brockguy]

Results after Day 6.

Able to get them up earlier than usual this week - A very good days action but I cant buy a winner at the moment . Anyway enough of me, Ian closes the gap on Jaripeo narrowly, but little change in the order at the top


Position Name This Weeks Score Running Total

1. Jaripeo, -40 +301.59
2. Viscount26 -7.92 +133.33
3. Pat Cummings -60 +5
4. No Chance To Dance -2.5 -72.5
5. Stickhorse, 0 -150
6. My Miss Storm Cat -40 -216.67
7. Linny, 0 -255.91
8. Peetsa -28 -268
9. Hickory Hill Hoff -80 -319.66
10. Brockguy -70 -366.25

[my miss storm cat]

R2... Glow Star (best bet cause Imbongi won't pay enough!) (alt. Stubbs Art)

R3... Honour Devil (alt. Little White Lie)

R4... will edit in or skip (but good luck to Instant Recall who will probably be 2nd).

R5... Team Victory (alt. Clasp)

R6... Eastern Anthem (alt. Weald)

R7... Imbongi (alt. Blue Ksar)

R8... Furnace

R9... Gravitas

Come home safe, everyone.

[NoChanceToDance]

Race 1 - Pointing North (alt, Stubbs Art)
Race 2 - Honour Devil (alt, Dijeerr)
Race 3 - Asset (alt, Buachaill Donna)
Race 4 - Team Victory (alt Moonquake)
Race 5 - Bound By Honour (alt Weald).... Giving him one more chance
Race 6 - Imbongi (alt Gladiatorus)
Race 7 - Rocks Off (NAP) (alt Seihali)...... Really fancy both of these.
Race 8 - Captain Webb (alt Gravitas)

I really struggled to choose between some of these this week. I really really like Gladiatorus, but I know just how hard it is to win from the front here, and Imbongi is the one who should come from off the pace. Two very good horses and not much splitting them for me.

Honour Devil really should win despite giving away weight, it's not a very good race.

I'm giving Pointing North and Better By Honour the benefit of the doubt for their poor previous runs. Their foreign form leaves the others with a lot to find and if they show what they're capable of, they will win, but with both yards out of form it's anyones' guess as to how they will do. Same goes for Team Victory, so I've taken a chance with these, but their previous form is by far the best on show.

Asset was very impressive last time, and the 4lb rise looks pretty lenient, with Warsaw winning well last week (well beaten behind Asset before). He's not always one to trust but he has a lot of class. I also like Instant Recall, but he often finds one too good, and he might not be able to win off his current rating. Buachaill Donna is interesting from this mark after having his pipe opener, could run well at a decent price.

Rocks Off looks a very good bet, after it was obvious he didn't relish the dirt, but even those runs were okay, finishing behind the very good Desert Party on the first start. Back on turf here, and he was a Gr1 winner in South Africa. The grand old performer Seihali could give him the most to do now he's on a very winnable mark, but he's not getting any younger.

[PatCummings]

1 - Pointing North (alt Stubbs Art)
1 - Honour Devil NAP (alt Dijeerr)
3 - Instant Recall (alt Asset)
12 - Trust N Dustan (alt Moonquake)
1 - Eastern Anthem (alt Mr. Brock)
5 - Imbongi (alt Gladiatorus)
9 - Perfect Season (alt Yamal)
9 - Captain Webb (alt Mulaqat)

I agree its a tough night, even with some smaller fields. My full analysis can be found here...

http://dubairacenight.com/dubai-raci...ht-7/#more-616

[NoChanceToDance]

What do you think to Rocks Off, Pat? I rate him as my best bet by far on tomorrows' card, but it's a bit off putting that you haven't even mentioned him I think, back on turf he will be too good for the others.

[brockguy]

Day 7 - Desperately want to have a good day here:

Race 1 - Pointing North alt Stubbs Art
Race 2 - Wingbeat alt Honour Devil
Race 3 - Instant Recall alt Asset
Race 4 - Trust N Dustan alt Moonquake
Race 5 - Sugar Ray alt Eastern Anthem
Race 6 - Summit Surge alt Gladitorus
Race 7 - Leandros NAP NAP NAP alt Yamal
Race 8 - Sanbuch alt Classic Punch

[PatCummings]

NoChance...

Rocks Off was respected last week when coming back in the 2000 Guineas but repeated his lackluster form. I'm reading into him here...so follow me...

He had good form in South Africa, with that G1 on turf for juveniles...but was clearly well-respected by DeKock when he put him in the conditions race on DIRC Night 2 (the same race won previously for the same connections as Asiatic Boy and Honour Devil). My problem is this...if DeKock really liked him (as if he was the same horse he thought he had at the beginning of the Carnival), do you really think he'd bring him back in a lower-level turf race just a week later?

Now, the reverse logic is fair - third off the layoff, dirt to turf, weight break, vulnerable field. I understand it. In my newsletter on DubaiRaceNight.com, I said that I think everyone in the field has a chance save #6 Flying Blue - so to have Rocks Off pop a big one...entirely possible.

It's a gut instinct, but I think his reappearing here is now a "let's see if he's ok and maybe he'll get his groove back (like Stella) on the turf."

I don't want my money to be part of the experiment...so I'll watch this one.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

2nd) Pointing North #1 NAP (alt. 9)
3rd) Honour Devil #1 (alt. 6)
4th) Asset #1 (alt. 3)
5th) Team Victory #6 (alt. 1)
6th) Eastern Anthem #1 (alt. 2)
7th) Gladiatorurus #6 (alt. 5)
8th) Leandros #3 (alt. 4)
9th) Waldvogel #6 (alt. 10)

[jaripeo]

HERE I, VOY:

Pointing Nort (Alt Echoes Rock)

Honour Devil (Alt Jaffal)

Instan Recall (Alt Asset)

Bucintros (Alt Team Victory) Best Bet

New Guinea (Alt Crime Scene)

Gladiatorus (Alt Traffic Guard)

Banknote (Alt Yamal)

Sanbuch (Alt Young Mick)

[peetsa]

2) Stubbs Art

3) Honour Devil

4) Judd Street

5) Grand Hombre

6) Mr Brock NAP

7) Blue Ksar

8) Ragheed

9) Young Mick

[viscount26]

2. Pointing North Nap

3. Honour Devil

4. Asset

5. Irish Mayhem

6. Sugar Ray

7. Gladiatorus

8. Yamal

9. Captain Webb

[PatCummings]

I hope you guys subscribe to the DubaiRaceNight newsletter - free of course...but here is what I said about 23-1 winner Dijeerr...

Make no mistake about the fact that #1 HONOUR DEVIL is a deserving strong favorite. I don't think #6 TIZ NOW TIZ THEN can get close to Honour Devil under most circumstances but am holding out hope that #2 DIJEERR harnesses some magical turn of form to spring the upset or put a decent run in.

His dam, Sharp Minister (by Deputy Minister), was unplaced in two starts, but a year after foaling Dijeerr, she dropped a full brother named Plavius. In four lifetime starts on Dubai dirt, Plavius has two wins and a second before he finished last on February 6th at Nad Al Sheba. You'll notice that Plavius defeated #3 ESTIDHAAF by more than six lengths four starts back, and I think he has board-hitting possibilties today. A half-brother to Dijeerr, Sharp Writer, was second in the Golden Gate Derby (G3) in 2005 before winning some listed stakes races in 2006. Overall, his ability to make some running on the dirt is not out of the question given the breeding.

Apprentice jockey Antioco Murgia has the return call on Dijeerr and has compiled just nine rides in the Emirates since January 22nd. He managed his first local win last week at Jebel Ali for trainer Mubarak bin Shafya, winning by 7.75 lengths in a pace-tracking victory. Interestingly, he rode a son of Danzig that day and had a decent second at a price last week at the Carnival.

Those last two races for Dijeerr were indeed AWFUL, but I am certainly wondering if a change of scene could give him a chance to find himself near the front of the field. I expect the 8-1 morning line to drift up quite a bit as the gate break looms.

Now, granted, I still think Honour Devil was best in that race but Dijeerr offered quite a bit of value and did indeed drift to 23-1. He was only 11-1 on the UK pool.

[NoChanceToDance]

Dijeerr has bee my only winning bet today and that was only a small one because I thought Honour Devil would be too good. It's been awful for me yet again.

What is up with Satish Seemar and Hermon Brown at the moment??? Both trainers are in dreadful form (I don't think Seemar has had a winner at the carnival yet). Pointing North and Better By Honor (both very good horses) have had no shows again. Can a stable be in worse form than these two?? Both horses have the form to win races like this easily and yet run down the field