2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by justindew

So if Notonthesamepage or Taqarub wins a one-turn mile by a length, you would take that horse over Old Fashioned?

Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by pick4

Here's the pp's of the the Derby winners from 1992 to 2008.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...rbywinners.pdf

Out of all those Derby winners listed, only two horses ever won 10 or more races in their career.

Silver Charm and Funny Cide.

six horses on that list only started 10 times or less.

[lemoncrush]

well, one thing was evident in this race to me.

Poltergeist ran like.....well, ran like a Texas bred.

I expected more from him, especially with a sharp, recent win going two turns over the track.

[Travis Stone]

The 2009 Southwest has officially become the most over-analyzed race in the Derby Trail Prep History.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

Did the Beyer come back from Old Fashion yet?

93

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard.

The FoY is setting up to be a tricky race imo.

On one hand - it's going to be loaded with horses who are extremely talented sprinter/milers proven capable of running fast for 6-to-7fs ... and if they all run the way they figure to ... the race can absolutely collapse late and make a deep closing winner look a lot better than he is.

On the other hand - let's say the connections of every one of these sharp sprint horses but Notonthesamepage are focusing on avoiding a pace meltdown and commit to extremely patient rate and finish tactics with longer distance races in mind. If that happens - and Notonthesamepage is not pressured and runs back to that insane win on opening day ... it's over. But he's still just not a serious derby horse.

I would think bettors will be skeptical of any winner if the race plays out to either of the extremes...which it might. But I also thought This One's For Phil would be about 20/1 in round #1 of the Derby futures .. and he ended up more than twice that .. so who knows.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The 2009 Southwest has officially become the most over-analyzed race in the Derby Trail Prep History.

I beat the '07 version of the Southwest to death here. The race Hard Spun was hung wide on both turns - rated back against a slow pace over a very pro inside-speed track - and ran a sneaky good 4th behind Tufulesburg.

It was actually a sneaky huge performance .. but it came after a Lecomte win of his on comeback that I thought was much less impressive than looked on paper or tape.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I beat the '07 version of the Southwest to death here. The race Hard Spun was hung wide on both turns - rated back against a slow pace over a very pro inside-speed track - and ran a sneaky good 4th behind Tufulesburg.

It was actually a sneaky huge performance .. but it came after a Lecomte win of his on comeback that I thought was much less impressive than looked on paper or tape.

I think you're well on your way of Rachel Alexandra-ing us all to death too.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

Good post, although I'd be surprised if OF really is a better horse than Hard Spun.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I think you're well on your way of Rachel Alexandra-ing us all to death too.

It's ok.

I just found my ritalin.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I beat the '07 version of the Southwest to death here. The race Hard Spun was hung wide on both turns - rated back against a slow pace over a very pro inside-speed track - and ran a sneaky good 4th behind Tufulesburg.

It was actually a sneaky huge performance .. but it came after a Lecomte win of his on comeback that I thought was much less impressive than looked on paper or tape.

He was the victim of a two very key circumstances:

* Being born the same year as Curlin.

* Street Sense peaking at the right time (Hard Spun ran a huge race in the KY Derby, an effort that wins most Derby's nowadays).

When was the last time we saw a horse capable of winning a G1 sprint and nearly taking down a G1 10f Derby?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

He was the victim of a two very key circumstances:

* Being born the same year as Curlin.

* Street Sense peaking at the right time (Hard Spun ran a huge race in the KY Derby, an effort that wins most Derby's nowadays).

When was the last time we saw a horse capable of winning a G1 sprint and nearly taking down a G1 10f Derby?

2000. More Than Ready.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

He was the victim of a two very key circumstances:

* Being born the same year as Curlin.

* Street Sense peaking at the right time (Hard Spun ran a huge race in the KY Derby, an effort that wins most Derby's nowadays).

When was the last time we saw a horse capable of winning a G1 sprint and nearly taking down a G1 10f Derby?

...or Afleet Alex.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

He was the victim of a two very key circumstances:

* Being born the same year as Curlin.

* Street Sense peaking at the right time (Hard Spun ran a huge race in the KY Derby, an effort that wins most Derby's nowadays).

When was the last time we saw a horse capable of winning a G1 sprint and nearly taking down a G1 10f Derby?

My memory is so bad, I should never delve into these areas, but didn't Black Tie Affair win the BC Classic after the year prior running third in the BC Sprint?

Not the same as your question, but a versitile horse.

[Travis Stone]

The bottom line is Old Fashioned being considered the division leader speaks to where horse racing is today. He's a good horse, don't get me wrong, but none-the-less...

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

...or Afleet Alex.

Ah yes, Afleet Alex. He deserved the Derby that year...

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

2000. More Than Ready.

I was a huge fan of his after seeing his Sanford at Saratoga - it was one of the most exciting stretch kicks I've seen live in person.

But he didn't carry it throughout his 3-year-old season quite like Hard Spun.

Hard Spun had a really good campaign capping it off with a second in the Breeders' Cup Classic. It's funny how things work out... if Street Sense checks in traffic, Hard Spun is a Derby winner and instantly becomes one of the most coveted sires of the past 10-20 years.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Ah yes, Afleet Alex. He deserved the Derby that year...

How's that?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

2000. More Than Ready.

Except that More Than Ready was not close to winning the Derby.

I would have preferred he run third to that ghastly four-horse entry, would have helped my trifecta.

NT