Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[The Bid]

Willie is the human sail. What an honest horse noble is. He coulda ran 3rd, but that was a monumental effort seeing he doesn't want to run anywhere near that far. I was really impressed w noble and icebox. Lucky also passed a lot of horses late after a terrible first half

After watching the race over and over I have come to the same conclusion I always come to. The majority of problems were caused by Kent dedumbeaux. How he remains a top rider i have no idea. No ride in derby was worse than dedumbeaux. Not only did he cause his horse to lose he also eliminated 3 others from being a factor. It was noberto arroyo-esque

[CSC]

I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

Willie might be bad but the guy won a Grade I stake on the horse. You think any of those people basking in the glow of having a Derby starter had the wherewithal to say, hey, did you know Edgar Prado or Joe Bravo or Cornelio Velasquez are available? I doubt it.

NT

Originally Posted by CSC

I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

They were probably just happy to be there and not suffering from delusions of grandeur.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Willie might be bad but the guy won a Grade I stake on the horse. You think any of those people basking in the glow of having a Derby starter had the wherewithal to say, hey, did you know Edgar Prado or Joe Bravo or Cornelio Velasquez are available? I doubt it.

NT

Yeah, but I would put Martinez just below Thompson as a Jockey. One has to wonder what Dublin could do with a better jock also.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by CSC

Yeah, but I would put Martinez just below Thompson as a Jockey. One has to wonder what Dublin could do with a better jock also.

You could put the Ice Man up on Dublin in the Preakness and he'll still be up the track.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

They were probably just happy to be there and not suffering from delusions of grandeur.

Are you kidding, if I was there I'd want to win the whole thing, the hell with being a niceguy. I'd say to Mcpeek get me Ezpinoza or Cornelio V or you're out, atleast with these 2 you have a shot!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Are you kidding, if I was there I'd want to win the whole thing, the hell with being a niceguy. I'd say to Mcpeek get me Ezpinoza or Cornelio V or your out, atleast with these 2 you have a better shot!

You not the brightest light on the tree but even you shine brightly when it comes to those you are referencing. Do you really think any of the owners or McClueless have any idea what Willie has cost them? This is a joke. The dude cost them the BC and they keep riding him and taking what he tells them as being representative. They deserve everything they got. It's IDIOT comedy.

Originally Posted by CSC

Are you kidding, if I was there I'd want to win the whole thing, the hell with being a niceguy. I'd say to Mcpeek get me Ezpinoza or Cornelio V or you're out, atleast with these 2 you have a shot!

Yeah sure.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You not the brightest light on the tree but even you shine brightly

This coming from you, is almost like a love letter...thanks I guess. Well we agree but don't get any closer to me, I may start feeling uncomfortable around here.

[the_fat_man]

Give me the full quote treatment. No editing.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You could put the Ice Man up on Dublin in the Preakness and he'll still be up the track.

On an off track yes, but he's not that bad if Lukas doesn't end up ruining him. That's 2 weights he has to overcome, Lukas/Thompson. Not sure even Zenyatta could overcome these 2 10lbs weights.

Obcourse she could...But only her

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I have watched the replay and the head on, Willy pushed to make the gap between two tiring horses. Its clear as day he drops his hands back down after he splits them. He saw the upcoming logjam about to happen and avoided it. All in would of been a full hand ride from the 3/8ths on which he didnt do at all. He actually didnt even hit his horse until Super Saver shouldered him. So I think its you who should go watch the replay again.

I watched the replay and it becomes even more clear. He pushes the horse (and this was after he used the horse to get position in the first place). Perhaps you are right that he wasn't "all in" at that point but how many moves was that horse supposed to make? Was he trying to give him a breather and then make another move???? Maybe he wasn't "all in" but if you put 3/4th of your chip stack on the flop, you might as well be. No?

What happens if he doesnt make the move early and sits chilly until the end of the turn? Is it possible that a tiring horse on that sloppy track might not be able to hold the rail? And if thats the case, wouldn't that leave everyone else in the jam considering he still had opportunity for first run? SuperSaver sure doesnt get the same trip.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by CSC

On an off track yes, but he's not that bad if Lukas doesn't end up ruining him. That's 2 weights he has to overcome, Lukas/Thompson. Not sure even Zenyatta could overcome these 2 10lbs weights.

Obcourse she could...But only her

What makes you think he already isn't ruined?

[The Bid]

Dedumbeaux

cornhole

willie the sail matinez

Joe heel clipper bravo


Why don't they just tie 126lb sandbag onto them and pop the gates

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

Yeah, they "got what they deserved." A $63,000 check for fifth place in the Derby with a horse by effing Cuvee. I'd be pretty damn happy with that as my consolation prize since no horse by that sire is ever going to beat 15 horses in the Derby again.

[Crown@club]

I see that KYRIM is alive and well.

[iamthelurker]

This thread is starting to get ridiculous. We are talking about Noble's Promise. This horse, though talented, is not a classic winner nor will he ever be. He's talented enough to be a competitive stakes horse at a mile to a mile and an eighth at the most!

The emphasis on jockeys is also getting dumb too. Most of us sit here and countless times say its more the horse then the jockey, but then when peoples wallets get hurt they need to critique another human, better yet, a professional athlete. Because our picks couldnt of possibly been off right? I mean I really thought that son of Cuvee was for sure gonna relish the mile and a quarter!! No. Theres a reason riders are out there doing this and its not only because they are 115 pounds, its because they know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse then anyone on here ever will. You cant have it both ways guys.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You could put the Ice Man up on Dublin in the Preakness and he'll still be up the track.

George gervin was skinny but still couldnt do 126

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

This thread is starting to get ridiculous. We are talking about Noble's Promise. This horse, though talented, is not a classic winner nor will he ever be. He's talented enough to be a competitive stakes horse at a mile to a mile and an eighth at the most!

The emphasis on jockeys is also getting dumb too. Most of us sit here and countless times say its more the horse then the jockey, but then when peoples wallets get hurt they need to critique another human, better yet, a professional athlete. Because our picks couldnt of possibly been off right? I mean I really thought that son of Cuvee was for sure gonna relish the mile and a quarter!! No. Theres a reason riders are out there doing this and its not only because they are 115 pounds, its because they know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse then anyone on here ever will. You cant have it both ways guys.

I didn't have a dime on Nobles Promise and he didn't cost me anything. The move Willie Martinez made seemed premature and I thought it was enough to make a difference in not only his placing but also the way the race was run.

I don't care who his dad was although I think pointing out that he was sired by Cuvee makes the move all the more questionable. You seemed to have an intelligent argument but then you cop out by giving me the old "riders know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse" line. I get that Willie is probably a lot better jockey than me or anyone else on this board but does that mean his ride in the biggest race in the world isn't up for discussion?

I don't discount the notion that regardless of what Willie had done, Noble's Promise may not have finished any better or even perhaps worse. However, in watching the race, it seemed to me that the race could have ended better for him and worse for the winner if he waits. Regardless of whether you agree or not, an objective analysis would at least leave open the possibility for better results with a different strategy. No?