The Donn This Saturday

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You may be making a mistake. Don't get me wrong, I think NoBiz will be the better horse in April and better every month from there forward and certainly better as the distances increase, but Scat Daddy is no slouch at a one turn mile and he may well have a tactical pace advantage especially if Gulfstream is as kind to inside speed tomorrow as it has been for going on a week now.

Scat Daddy has more " now " connections while Tagg is not going to be upset at all by a strong second place finish.

oops, i said the same thing. i just took longer to say it. the one turn mile is one of the key elements in SD's favor. NoBiz gets stronger in my view when they get back to real two turn routes.

Scat Daddy has speed that can get the job done on a one turn mile.

[Scav]

The horse I caution people to be careful with is Cursora. Look who she has been facing, Take D' Tour, Ermine, Chic Dancer (was going to be 2nd favorite in the Bev D)

she has been training well and could surprise here

[tycharles01]

Guys what you think about Drums of Thunder tomm?? I think he will love a mile could give SCAT a run???

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm talking about trying to make money playing the horses, and there are times to take a stand and times not to, and if you play multi-race wagers you are foolish to stand alone. Maybe you want to go 60-40 ( though I will split it down the middle ) but you will not make money in this game singling when two gets it done. That I promise you.

sorry i got sucked into the holy bull discussion.

were i playing with money tomorrow, i'd be playing the hell out of invasor and going deeper in the others -- i don't see either losing, but i'd bet my money on invasor and spread in the other legs. i'm not advocating singling twice in this ticket....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

The horse I caution people to be careful with is Cursora. Look who she has been facing, Take D' Tour, Ermine, Chic Dancer (was going to be 2nd favorite in the Bev D)

she has been training well and could surprise here

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

Yeah, her last figure was monsterous. I know you don't subscribe to the bounce theory but for me she is screaming BOUNCE, like I could hear her from the moon.......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

sorry i got sucked into the holy bull discussion.

were i playing with money tomorrow, i'd be playing the hell out of invasor and going deeper in the others -- i don't see either losing, but i'd bet my money on invasor and spread in the other legs. i'm not advocating singling twice in this ticket....

There's also a Pick-4 on the last four races. Torini, who's in the 10th, may have a real future.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Scav

25/1 on that, I am all in....The only horse that scares me in the 7th is this Drums of Thunder, he has improved ten fold going 2 turns, and has had minor trouble in those two impressive wins, against less

The 8/9/10 pick3 might yield value if you think Naissance is vulverable. The last race is a 3 year old non winner of 1 going a mile an eighth. There are a lot of unknowns in this race.

I think Naissance Royale looks like a strong single but the nature of grass racing allows for teh chance of an upset. The finale is much more projection since they are unproven against winners for the most part and the two turns since most are running it for the first time. The M/L favorite Rutledge Cat looks like a very vulnerable 5/2 favorite.

Roman's Run has 2x experience and has been training very well. High Act has shown speed in his first two and is bred to go long. Torini is an Oxley home bred has been working out at a 7-8 clip since December.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, her last figure was monsterous. I know you don't subscribe to the bounce theory but for me she is screaming BOUNCE, like I could hear her from the moon.......

My biggest problem with the supposed BOUNCE theory is I think it is grossly overused and misappropriated as mostly it is a result of ideal conditions in one race and less than ideal ones in another. However, that being said, I do think second off a layoff, after a big return, is the race a horse is most likely to react. But, I also believe good horses don't react, and there is at least a chance Nottawasaga is a genuinely good horse.

You can't argue that if she runs back to last time she is far and away the biggest threat to the favorite. For that reason, if you are taking a shot with Strong Contender in the Pick-3, you should use her somewhere in your play. You will still get value.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Guys what you think about Drums of Thunder tomm?? I think he will love a mile could give SCAT a run???

What I don't like is that his routes seem to lack speed in the early stages of the race, then he closes strongly. That is not the profile I look for at the one turn mile at the Gulf. Better to have speed.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My biggest problem with the supposed BOUNCE theory is I think it is grossly overused and misappropriated as mostly it is a result of ideal conditions in one race and less than ideal ones in another. However, that being said, I do think second off a layoff, after a big return, is the race a horse is most likely to react. But, I also believe good horses don't react, and there is at least a chance Nottawasaga is a genuinely good horse.

You can't argue that if she runs back to last time she is far and away the biggest threat to the favorite. For that reason, if you are taking a shot with Strong Contender in the Pick-3, you should use her somewhere in your play. You will still get value.

I hope this didn't get you all fired up this late.......

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

I hope this didn't get you all fired up this late.......

Not at all. I'm always fired up about the races. That's why I love it.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That is a tricky race as there is a chance Naissance Royale doesn't have that winner's determination but she is most likely the best horse, with a good post, coming off an impossible trip. I don't think it's even close who the second best horse in the race is, in fact it's more likely she's the best horse than the third best horse, and that's Nottawasaga. Her last was super impressive and I expect her to be a force in this division in 2007. I am a little concerned she won't run her best race second off a layoff but I believe she is clearly no worse than the second likeliest winner.

To me most of the others are similar, and too slow, and if I was going to toss in one outlyer it would be La Dolce Vita. You can have the rest ( though I was impressed with J'Ray rallying inside on the Calder turf last out, which is not easy, but she's just too slow ).

Naissance Royal and Nottawasaga are the two that i have marked as standouts from the rest of the field. After them I have about 4-5 in the same ballpark. I had planned to spread a lot in this raise but weighted fairly heavy to the two standouts.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

The 8/9/10 pick3 might yield value if you think Naissance is vulverable. The last race is a 3 year old non winner of 1 going a mile an eighth. There are a lot of unknowns in this race.

I think Naissance Royale looks like a strong single but the nature of grass racing allows for teh chance of an upset. The finale is much more projection since they are unproven against winners for the most part and the two turns since most are running it for the first time. The M/L favorite Rutledge Cat looks like a very vulnerable 5/2 favorite.

Roman's Run has 2x experience and has been training very well. High Act has shown speed in his first two and is bred to go long. Torini is an Oxley home bred has been working out at a 7-8 clip since December.

You might be right 4...I didn't even look at that I might be playing the wrong sequence, instead of playing 2x4x1 15 times, I might play a 4x1x3 10 times and get paid better if I can beat Royale, and I can usually beat ANY HORSE, given optimal FOCUS

[horseofcourse]

What's wrong with a shot with Magna Graduate in the Donn? He ran huge last time at Aqueduct didn't he after a terrible first out after his break...what a 110 Beyer or something?? Hasn't Gulfstream been favoring speed somewhat a bit recently?? It's hard for me to see INvasor as a lock here.

[Scav]

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Naissance Royal and Nottawasaga are the two that i have marked as standouts from the rest of the field. After them I have about 4-5 in the same ballpark. I had planned to spread a lot in this raise but weighted fairly heavy to the two standouts.

I agree.

Maybe I am just not seeing tomorrow's races clearly but I find them very formful looking and lacking in great opportunity.

It feels like a decent day to bet a few bucks in the Pick-6 and hope for the best.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ya see, this is a perfect example, as he isn't going to bounce when he inevitably runs poorly. He won last time cruising on the lead, on the rail, on a super rail/speed biased racetrack. Even the second and third finishers rode the rail the whole way ( and we saw how well Papa Chullo ran last week ). His win was a phony bias aided effort and tomorrow he will have to run like a genuine racehorse.

He won't bounce....he will run to his actual ability.

I am speaking in terms of TG figs, meaning that I think he will digress significantly off his neg 4 last time. Brown does need to get a GOLDEN RAIL symbol......

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Scav

Bounce for me with Magna Graduate....

Wasn't that over two months ago? How do you bounce with two months off? I don't know how good he'll be, just seems interesting to me here and on this track.