Final Verdict ... Fog Is A Fraud

[Buffymommy]

You all can bash this horse all ya want. He was and is good for racing. He has a big following and brought many to racing. So whether he is the best sprinter ever or not, does not matter to me in the least. He was good for racing!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

You all can bash this horse all ya want. He was and is good for racing. He has a big following and brought many to racing. So whether he is the best sprinter ever or not, does not matter to me in the least. He was good for racing!

How " many " do you think he " brought " to racing?

What do you think his impact has been on handle in 2006?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Hmmm ... yes, I said "hmmm" ... then ...

... then how come 90% of all the high-priced yearlings that these "astute" horsemen recommend ... turn out to be garbage?

Once again ... I say, "hmmmm .... "

You can argue with me all you want to on this subject, but you are dead wrong. I know from personal experience that you are dead wrong, and there are many horseman that consistently pick out moderately priced two year olds in training and turn almost every one of them into winners. Don't get in an arguement about a subject that you know nothing about. You have obviously never worked around horses and wouldn't know from experience.

Because the horsemen who have filthy rich clients that buy the ridiculously high-priced horses aren't the great horsemen I am talking about. They are usually not as hard pressed to find good horses because there is so much money to piss away that they can just go buy another one anytime they want to. I would have never paid the amount for some of the high priced horses that some of these people have paid even if I had an endless money pit. Take Chekov for example...I never liked that horse. Just like a good bettor, a good horseman looks for value. I'm talking about the horsemen who can find quality in the cheaper animals. Most of the time, it is the Darley, Godolphin, and Coolmore stables pissing away money anyway...like the Green Monkey. While he is a nice colt, he will get beaten on the track. I've seen some others this year that I like a lot better than him.

Why did you think that I said that Orientate was going to be the one of the new top sires? Because I have seen his two year old trainees. He already is ranked 7th in the overall national standings for first crop with only 11 starters. His foals will only get better as they mature.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How " many " do you think he " brought " to racing?

What do you think his impact has been on handle in 2006?

He made my mother start following racing again besides just the TC preps, TC races, and BC.

[alysheba4]

man, i would consider becoming a ridgling to own that horse ......... he just didnt fire, he is still a great horse.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

You can argue with me all you want to on this subject, but you are dead wrong. I know from personal experience that you are dead wrong, and there are many horseman that consistently pick out moderately priced two year olds in training and turn almost every one of them into winners. Don't get in an arguement about a subject that you know nothing about. You have obviously never worked around horses and wouldn't know from experience.

Because the horsemen who have filthy rich clients that buy the ridiculously high-priced horses aren't the great horsemen I am talking about. They are usually not as hard pressed to find good horses because there is so much money to piss away that they can just go buy another one anytime they want to. I would have never paid the amount for some of the high priced horses that some of these people have paid even if I had an endless money pit. Take Chekov for example...I never liked that horse. Just like a good bettor, a good horseman looks for value. I'm talking about the horsemen who can find quality in the cheaper animals. Most of the time, it is the Darley, Godolphin, and Coolmore stables pissing away money anyway...like the Green Monkey. While he is a nice colt, he will get beaten on the track. I've seen some others this year that I like a lot better than him.

Why did you think that I said that Orientate was going to be the one of the new top sires? Because I have seen his two year old trainees. He already is ranked 7th in the overall national standings for first crop with only 11 starters. His foals will only get better as they mature.

OK ... let's accept everything you said ... I have no reason to doubt your veracity ... but ...

... what does any of that have to do with wheher or not Lost In The Fog is capable of winning in open G1/G2 company?

Are you saying that you noticed that Lost In The Fog's stride was different throughout the races that he lost ... from the races that he won? Please make a relevant connection to your (and Rupert's) contentions that you're both experts on a horse's stride ... to Lost In The Fog's consistent losses to good horses.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

You all can bash this horse all ya want. He was and is good for racing. He has a big following and brought many to racing. So whether he is the best sprinter ever or not, does not matter to me in the least. He was good for racing!

I think even the people like myself who are claming that LITF is not a real solid G1 sprinter, would still rank him as a solid G2 or G3 horse. In my opinion he is better than 99.999% of all sprinters running. Why you would characterize that as bashing is beyond my comprehension. These are suttle distinctions being discussed, nothing extreme like is he great or garbage.
Is he good for racing? Yes, but so is Nightmare Affair the solid sprinter that beat him on Saturday.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

He made my mother start following racing again besides just the TC preps, TC races, and BC.

Just curious, what's her daily handle?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

OK ... let's accept everything you said ... I have no reason to doubt your veracity ... but ...

... what does any of that have to do with wheher or not Lost In The Fog is capable of winning in open G1/G2 company?

Are you saying that you noticed that Lost In The Fog's stride was different throughout the races that he lost ... from the races that he won? Please make a relevant connection to your (and Rupert's) contentions that you're both experts on a horse's stride ... to Lost In The Fog's consistent losses to good horses.

I am not going to get into the arguement about LITF. I haven't read this entire thread and I was just replying back to the questions you asked. All I can say is that LITF is a lot better horse than he showed this past weekend and something is definitely wrong with him. He is nowhere near the horse he was last year. While he isn't a great horse, he is a really good one, and I just think he isn't a fraud, and is a classy animal. A horse loses a couple of races after he had won 10+ races in a row and he is considered a fraud...Well I guess Secretariat and Spectacular Bid were frauds too. Horses are always called frauds after having huge win streaks and then losing. People's emotions take the best of them because they have such high expectations for the horse and are extremely disappointed when the animal actually does lose so they start bad-mouthing the horse. LITF has something wrong with him...that is why they are considering retiring him. He was never into the race this past weekend and he was never himself. LITF beat Kelly's Landing in the Aristrides and KL is quite a good sprinter. And yes he was never fully extended in the races in which he lost. He just didn't try. In the BC, I think that he was weary from a tiresome campaign, and this weekend, I think that he has physical ailments combined with the fact that he didn't take to the track.

It is the same with Lawyer Ron. LR won all of his starts on dirt except for the toughest race in his career, the KD, and in doing so had to go into surgery immediately after the Derby to remove a chip. He hasn't worked since. Yet people still seem to say he was overrated and overhyped. Same with Afleet Alex when he had a lung infection in the Rebel. Everyone said that he was overrated and overhyped too....well he showed everyone who said that a thing or two.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I am not going to get into the arguement about LITF. I haven't read this entire thread and I was just replying back to the questions you asked. All I can say is that LITF is a lot better horse than he showed this past weekend and something is definitely wrong with him. He is nowhere near the horse he was last year. While he isn't a great horse, he is a really good one, and I just think he isn't a fraud, and is a classy animal. A horse loses a couple of races after he had won 10+ races in a row and he is considered a fraud...Well I guess Secretariat and Spectacular Bid were frauds too. Horses are always called frauds after having huge win streaks and then losing. People's emotions take the best of them because they have such high expectations for the horse and are extremely disappointed when the animal actually does lose so they start bad-mouthing the horse. LITF has something wrong with him...that is why they are considering retiring him. He was never into the race this past weekend and he was never himself. LITF beat Kelly's Landing in the Aristrides and KL is quite a good sprinter. And yes he was never fully extended in the races in which he lost. He just didn't try.

It is the same with Lawyer Ron. LR won all of his starts on dirt except for the toughest race in his career, the KD, and in doing so had to go into surgery immediately after the Derby to remove a chip. He hasn't worked since. Yet people still seem to say he was overrated and overhyped. Same with Afleet Alex when he had a lung infection in the Rebel. Everyone said that he was overrated and overhyped too....well he showed everyone who said that a thing or two.

I don't know anyone who called Secretariat or Spectacular Bid a fraud....or even Lawyer Ron. Lost in the Fog was overrated because he was not tested during his winning streak. Who was the best horse he beat? Egg Head? The owners did a great job in maximizing profits with the horse but instead of prepping for the BC in the Vosburgh, they stayed in NoCal and ran against 3 nobodies. Big mistake. And he was in real deep water against the top older sprinters (and another good 3YO sprinter in Silver Train) in the Breeders Cup.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't know anyone who called Secretariat or Spectacular Bid a fraud....or even Lawyer Ron. Lost in the Fog was overrated because he was not tested during his winning streak. Who was the best horse he beat? Egg Head? The owners did a great job in maximizing profits with the horse but instead of prepping for the BC in the Vosburgh, they stayed in NoCal and ran against 3 nobodies. Big mistake. And he was in real deep water against the top older sprinters (and another good 3YO sprinter in Silver Train) in the Breeders Cup.

No one ever called Secretariat and Spectacular Bid frauds...I just meant that since they had lost a few races that they were frauds too. I was being sarcastic. It was really a bad example on my part because LITF will never be anywhere close to being as good as those two great horse...no where near it.

As for LR, everyone calls LR overrated and overhyped. In a thread that asked who was the most overrated/overhyped horse so far this year...LR got the most votes. There are very few who will defend LR.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Hmmm ... yes, I said "hmmm" ... then ...

... then how come 90% of all the high-priced yearlings that these "astute" horsemen recommend ... turn out to be garbage?

Once again ... I say, "hmmmm .... "

First of all, I was not talking about yearling sales. I was talking about 2 year old in training sales. At 2 year old in training sales, you get to watch a horse work out. At yearling sales, you don't. I personally have no expertise at picking out yearlings. But there are some people who are really good at it. With yearlings though, there really is no such thing as a horse who is a slam dunk to be a good horse. Even the guys who are great at picking out yearlings will have a relatively low batting average. If 20-25% of the horses you picked turned out turned out to be good enough horses to break their maidens within their first couple of races at major tracks, that would be a very good batting average for yearlings. With 2 year olds in training, a person with a good eye, could do much better than this. You could expect more like 60-70% of the horses you pick to win early at major tracks. The number will obviously be much lower for horses who don't have much speed and look like they want to run long.
To clarify your question about a horse's stride, there are all different types of strides. Just because a horse has a short stride, it doesn't mean that his stride is bad. By the same token, just because a horse has a long stride, that doesn't mean his stride is good. As long as the stride is fluid and smooth, that is the most important thing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Lawyer Ron is indefensible as a top horse. Perhaps that is why nobody would defend him. He is a nice horse, who won some races, and ran consistently slow races. He was simply better than his competition. Not his fault but it doesn't make him a top horse.

Much of the same could be said for Lost in the Fog. He is a more talented horse, however, than Lawyer Ron.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I am not going to get into the arguement about LITF. I haven't read this entire thread and I was just replying back to the questions you asked. All I can say is that LITF is a lot better horse than he showed this past weekend and something is definitely wrong with him. He is nowhere near the horse he was last year. While he isn't a great horse, he is a really good one, and I just think he isn't a fraud, and is a classy animal. A horse loses a couple of races after he had won 10+ races in a row and he is considered a fraud...Well I guess Secretariat and Spectacular Bid were frauds too. Horses are always called frauds after having huge win streaks and then losing. People's emotions take the best of them because they have such high expectations for the horse and are extremely disappointed when the animal actually does lose so they start bad-mouthing the horse. LITF has something wrong with him...that is why they are considering retiring him. He was never into the race this past weekend and he was never himself. LITF beat Kelly's Landing in the Aristrides and KL is quite a good sprinter. And yes he was never fully extended in the races in which he lost. He just didn't try. In the BC, I think that he was weary from a tiresome campaign, and this weekend, I think that he has physical ailments combined with the fact that he didn't take to the track.

It is the same with Lawyer Ron. LR won all of his starts on dirt except for the toughest race in his career, the KD, and in doing so had to go into surgery immediately after the Derby to remove a chip. He hasn't worked since. Yet people still seem to say he was overrated and overhyped. Same with Afleet Alex when he had a lung infection in the Rebel. Everyone said that he was overrated and overhyped too....well he showed everyone who said that a thing or two.

I agree with everything you said.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Just curious, what's her daily handle?

It's more like monthly handle. The first horse she ever bet on was LITF last year. She gave me the money and I took it to the OTB for her. Since then, she now goes with me to the OTB about once a month...(I go about every weekend).

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Lawyer Ron is indefensible as a top horse. Perhaps that is why nobody would defend him. He is a nice horse, who won some races, and ran consistently slow races. He was simply better than his competition. Not his fault but it doesn't make him a top horse.

Much of the same could be said for Lost in the Fog. He is a more talented horse, however, than Lawyer Ron.

Steppenwolfer got third in the Derby and a fourth in the Belmont, and I guarantee you that if LR returns to the races in the same form he was earlier this spring, he will "again" be a much better horse than Steppenwolfer.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Lawyer Ron is indefensible as a top horse. Perhaps that is why nobody would defend him. He is a nice horse, who won some races, and ran consistently slow races. He was simply better than his competition. Not his fault but it doesn't make him a top horse.

Much of the same could be said for Lost in the Fog. He is a more talented horse, however, than Lawyer Ron.

I don't know if I would call Lawyer Ron slow, he did run a 0 on Thorograph and ran a Beyer at 106 or 107, that's not exactly slow and those numbers were comparable with the other Top 3yo's before the Triple Crown races. I really liked this horse and still do, the thing I didn't want to admit before the Kentucky Derby was that he was over the top with all of that racing, he had to go backwards at some point without taking a break, that was my error in judgement. I think the jury is still very much out on him, he may never be able to improve after his injury, but I certainly would not say he is slow, and if he comes back, he could improve. With that said, I do not think he's as talented as Bernardini or Jazil, but he could certainly hold his own against a Blue Grass Cat or Sunriver....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Steppenwolfer got third in the Derby and a fourth in the Belmont, and I guarantee you that if LR returns to the races in the same form he was earlier this spring, he will "again" be a much better horse than Steppenwolfer.

Steppenwolfer is a plodding mediocrity. Telling me where horses finished in races doesn't fool me into thinking they are particularly talented. Perhaps, and seemingly, you are fooled by this. You shouldn't be.

Lawyer Ron was the most overrated horse on the TC trail. I kind of like him, he's a neat horse, but he's not supremely talented. It isn't a criticism...it is reality.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I don't know if I would call Lawyer Ron slow, he did run a 0 on Thorograph and ran a Beyer at 106 or 107, that's not exactly slow and those numbers were comparable with the other Top 3yo's before the Triple Crown races. I really liked this horse and still do, the thing I didn't want to admit before the Kentucky Derby was that he was over the top with all of that racing, he had to go backwards at some point without taking a break, that was my error in judgement. I think the jury is still very much out on him, he may never be able to improve after his injury, but I certainly would not say he is slow, and if he comes back, he could improve. With that said, I do not think he's as talented as Bernardini or Jazil, but he could certainly hold his own against a Blue Grass Cat or Sunriver....

His Beyer's were consistently in the mid 90s.....hardly special. The one figure he got over 100, a 106, was at Louisianna Downs, where if you followed racing closely you may have noticed many horses shipping there and improving dramatically and then not being able to reproduce those numbers out of town. The 106 Lawyer Ron makes no sense both in relation to his consistent performances elsewhere but also for the other competitors in that race.

Lawyer Ron is not " slow " in relation to the majority of the members of his, or really any, generation. But, he is slow in relation to the majority of horses considered genuine TC contendors.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His Beyer's were consistently in the mid 90s.....hardly special. The one figure he got over 100, a 106, was at Louisianna Downs, where if you followed racing closely you may have noticed many horses shipping there and improving dramatically and then not being able to reproduce those numbers out of town. The 106 Lawyer Ron makes no sense both in relation to his consistent performances elsewhere but also for the other competitors in that race.

Lawyer Ron is not " slow " in relation to the majority of the members of his, or really any, generation. But, he is slow in relation to the majority of horses considered genuine TC contendors.

He still ran a 0 on Thorograph, more than once and at Oaklawn, going into the Derby, his Thoro's were as good or better than many...