New Zealand Racing, 2009-10

[my miss storm cat]

Awww thanks ed cause I really did want to see it (the end of it anyway).

That tail.

She is brilliant!

Poor Translated. That's a shame.

[my miss storm cat]

Do you mind filling in the last sentence?

http://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/n....aspx?id=45214

[_ed_]

Haha! March 6. Same day as the Derby - Katie Lee's great, but I don't think she can win both!

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Haha! March 6. Same day as the Derby - Katie Lee's great, but I don't think she can win both!

[_ed_]

Our first Derby contender...

MONACO CONSUL

3 c High Chaparral - Argante
8 starts - 3 wins, 1 second
Trainers: Mike & Paul Moroney
Major wins: G1 VRC Derby, G1 Spring Champion Stakes
Odds: 4-1

Replays:
Best: VRC Derby (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw-VQPJW8hM
Last Start: International Stakes (7th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpbZptRFPKU

+ Amazing in October/November
+ Distance will be no problem
+ Trainers have won the Derby twice in the last 10 years (Cut The Cake & Xcellent)

- 10th and 7th in last two starts. But some have said that 7th in the International wasn't as bad as it sounds - watch the replay and see what you think!
- Stable's not in great form at the moment

Verdict: If he shows up on Derby day in the form he was in four months ago, he's a huge winning chance. But he's looked like a different horse in his last two races, and time is running out for the stable to turn things around and get him back to his best. If they can do that, he's a serious contender. But I'd have him at about 12-1 at the moment.

[my miss storm cat]

Oh cool ed... I was hoping you'd be doing this again this year.

[_ed_]

Miss Lee...

KATIE LEE

3 f Pins - Miss Jessie Jay
15 starts - 7 wins, 5 seconds, 2 thirds
Trainers: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
Major wins: G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas, G1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas, G2 Eight Carat Classic, G2 Sir Tristram Fillies Classic, G3 Eclipse Stakes
Odds: 9-1

Replays:
Best: New Zealand 2000 Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8Hyvcnk1EI
Last start: Sir Tristram Fillies Classic (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xw8Pob1BIHg

+ Simply awesome
+ Best horse in NZ
+ Amazing competitiveness and will to win - when she sees another horse gaining on her, her tail swishes and she tries even harder.

- Distance: pedigree suggests she might not handle it.

Verdict: The best horse in the race. The only question is the distance, and a lack of stamina in her pedigree might be what stops her from winning. But her ability will take her a long way, and you won't see her give up in the last few strides. The crowd will go crazy if she can do it. I think her 9-1 odds are about right.

[_ed_]

JOEY MASSINO

3 c O'Reilly - Rationable
14 starts - 5 wins, 3 seconds
Trainer: Peter McKay
Major wins: G2 Avondale Guineas, G3 Wellington Stakes
Odds: 20-1

Replays:
Best, last start: Karaka Mile (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQ_bdR-meI

+ Tough front-runner who hates letting horses pass him in the stretch
+ Four-time stakes winner.

- Failed in his only start beyond a mile, so big questions about the distance.

Verdict: One of the bravest and most determined little horses in NZ at the moment. He obviously hates losing, and will give everything he's got on Derby day. The big problem is the 2400m. But I think 20-1 is too high. I'd have him at 11-1 or 12-1.

[_ed_]

Will she or won't she?

http://tvnz.co.nz/othersports-news/k...status-3371675

[_ed_]

ZARZUELA

3 f Zabeel - Star Satire
7 starts - 3 wins, 2 seconds
Trainer: Mark Walker
Major wins: G2 Great Northern Guineas, G3 Waikato Guineas
Odds: 2-1

Replays:
Best: Great Northern Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDufBBwx5Ig
Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMqU75285M

+ Hugely talented filly getting better as race distances increase
+ Breeding says she'll love the distance - by Zabeel, sire of 3 Derby winners.

- Mark Walker is the best trainer in NZ, but hasn't won a Derby
- She's never had a horse fight back when she makes her move. Can she handle it?

Verdict: Deserves to be the favourite after her impressive wins in the Great Northern Guineas and Waikato Guineas. But she's inexperienced, and the Derby is going to be unlike anything she's faced before, while some others in the race have had G1 experience before. I think 3-1 or 4-1 would be better.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Will she or won't she?

http://tvnz.co.nz/othersports-news/k...status-3371675

Oh wow pretty exciting!

(Joey is so pretty, by the way).

[_ed_]

It's very exciting. I'm really starting to think she can run well in the Derby. Would be so amazing if she did.

These (and Monaco Consul) are the horses she's likely to face in the Derby. This is the field for the Championship Stakes tomorrow, which is the last big Derby prep.

1 11511 Joey Massino 5 86 56.0 Sam Spratt Peter McKay, Matamata
2 23254 Military Move 13 84 56.0 Noel Harris Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge
3 1132 Corporal Jones 2 78 56.0 Michael Coleman Andrew Scott, Matamata
4 11462 Martial Art 16 78 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Mark Walker, Matamata
5 14171 King Raedwald (AUS) 9 77 56.0 Hayden Tinsley Kevin Gray, Copper Belt Lodge, Palmerston North
6 21165 Imabayboy 17 76 56.0 Scratching Trent Busuttin, Cambridge
7 53313 Time Keeper 6 76 56.0 Andrew Calder Graeme Nicholson & Paul Allbon, Te Aroha
8 15901 Amazing Spy 8 70 56.0 Michelle Wenn Chris McNab, Cambridge
9 01273 Kullu (AUS) 4 70 56.0 Craig Grylls Stephen McKee, Ardmore
10 3129 Maciano (AUS) 7 70 56.0 Chad Ormsby John Sargent, Matamata
11 73431 The Suleiman 10 69 56.0 Matthew Cameron Robert Priscott & Clayton Chipperfield, Te Awamutu
12 44217 Bone Of Contention 14 68 56.0 Cameron Lammas Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue, Cambridge
13 18211 Zarzuela 1 85 54.5 James McDonald (a) Mark Walker, Matamata
14 1X963 Jungle Juice 12 74 54.5 Troy Harris Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs, Ruakaka
15 9311 Sirani (AUS) 15 74 54.5 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata
16 43190 No Emotion 11 67 56.0 John Sargent, Matamata

Zarzuela is going to be hard to beat here, but I also really like Joey Massino, Corporal Jones, Maciano and King Raedwald. Should be a good race.

Imabayboy, Kilkenny and Walk Away are some Derby hopefuls running in undercard races.

[my miss storm cat]

Wow that is some field!

Confused about Bayboy... is he cross entered? (Last line of your post incase this makes no sense!)

[_ed_]

Yes, he was scratched from the Championship Stakes. He won the other race very easily!

Zarzuela won the Championship Stakes. Corporal Jones second, King Raedwald third. Joey Massino didn't get the distance. I'll post the replay soon.

Daffodil and Boundless also won races today.

[_ed_]

Championship Stakes replay: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

It was another good performance by Zarzuela, and today she proved she can still win when another horse resists her big late move, but I'm starting to think she could be a bit vulnerable in the Derby. She found it much harder to beat these guys today over 2100m, compared with her easy 2000m win last time, and I'm not convinced about her with another 300m in the Derby. I still think she deserves to be the favourite, but I'm not sure the result's a foregone conclusion.

Corporal Jones is getting better with every race, and look at the way King Raedwald finished off this race. Last year's Derby winner ran 3rd in this race - it might be the same again.

And there's Katie Lee, Monaco Consul and Imabayboy as well! And Volgus (half-brother to Rios and Roman Emperor), who ran nicely in another race today and might just sneak into the Derby field.

[my miss storm cat]

Thanks for the replay and for all the news.

How was the field for Bayboys race? Did he beat anyone really good?

Wow katie... a win machine!

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Thanks for the replay and for all the news.

How was the field for Bayboys race? Did he beat anyone really good?

Wow katie... a win machine!

It was a small field, but it had Seaflyte and Mr Charlie in it - they ran 1-2 in the Dunstan Championship on Jan 1 - so there was some quality in it. And he won the race so easily.

Updated Derby odds:

$101.00 Amazing Spy
$21.00 Ballybit
$41.00 Celtic Fantasy
$6.00 Corporal Jones
$16.00 Handsome Zulu
$151.00 Hiace
$31.00 Imabayboy
$41.00 Joey Massino
$61.00 Jungle Juice
$10.00 Katie Lee
$101.00 Kilkenny
$12.00 King Raedwald
$81.00 Kullu
$31.00 Maciano
$61.00 Martial Art
$26.00 Military Move
$6.00 Monaco Consul
$41.00 No Emotion
$21.00 Sirani
$61.00 Smokin' Gun
$251.00 The Beaut
$101.00 The Sulieman
$31.00 Time Keeper
$101.00 Volgus
$51.00 Walk Away
$2.20 Zarzuela

[_ed_]

CORPORAL JONES

3 g Pentire - Assesarose
5 starts - 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Trainer: Andrew Scott
Odds: 5-1

Replays:
Best, last start: Championship Stakes (2nd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

+ Never runs a bad race
+ Excellent in Waikato Guineas (2nd), even better in Championship Stakes (2nd)
+ Getting better all the time

- He's running well, but Zarzuela's beating him without any excuses.

Verdict: It looks like this guy might be peaking at exactly the right time. His Championship Stakes run was by far the best of his life so far, and heaps better than his good Waikato Guineas effort. A lot of people are saying he can beat Zarzuela and Katie Lee. We'll see! I think 5-1 is fair.

[_ed_]

KING RAEDWALD

3 c Red Ransom - Lady Circles
7 starts, 3 wins, 1 third
Trainer: Kevin Gray
Odds: 11-1

Replays:
Very nice win against low-class opposition Feb 7: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xcbnsy_king-raedwald
Last start: Championship Stakes (3rd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

+ Finished strongly at the end of the 2100m Championship Stakes
+ Trainer great at having horses at their best at exactly the right time (like Daffodil!)
+ Kevin Gray and jockey Hayden Tinsley were at Ellerslie to be with King Raedwald instead of at New Plymouth with Daffodil!

- He was still 3 lengths back from Zarzuela and Corporal Jones. Maybe not quite at their class level yet?

Verdict: This is a really nice colt, and there was a lot to like about his Championship Stakes effort. But I get the feeling he's going to be a better horse in about a year. The stable and jockey are highly confident though, and they always have to be respected. Likely to be the 'wise guy' horse.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

+ Kevin Gray and jockey Hayden Tinsley were at Ellerslie to be with King Raedwald instead of at New Plymouth with Daffodil!

Okay well that tells me something about this guy!