Travers Buzz: Quality Road a yes..

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Ann if they aren't going to race at 4 your argument holds no water. You only have so moany races of significants to make a stallion. That is the issue in a nutshell.

Neither Repent (Louis Quatorze-Baby Grace, by Cipayo) nor Bellamy Road (Concerto-Hurry Home Hillary, by Deputed Testamony) had a pedigree that had studmasters salivating. No Storm Cat, Danzig, A.P. Indy, or Mr. Prospector, nor sons thereof close up; strictly nonfashionable stuff. Like Silver Charm or Real Quiet, they would not have been missed from the stallion ranks if they had been able to come back at 4. Repent started at $5K and Bellamy Road at $12.5K, neither of which is going to get anybody rich fast.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by CSC

Very true, right now SB is Carol Burnett to RA's Pam Anderson...

So you're saying Summer Bird is a talented sketch comedy performer and Rachel Alexandra is a pair of fake boobs?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

So you're saying Summer Bird is a talented sketch comedy performer and Rachel Alexandra is a pair of fake boobs?

Gotcha...Come to think about it, I don't know which is more attractive having a few laughs or silicon.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Summer Bird is a much better horse at this stage than Mine That Bird was during the Preakness and all signs point to him getting better. The gap is closing between him and RA, if one can look past that made for RA Haskell. All we need is a fair race at 1 1/4 this fall at Belmont to illustrate this point.

You are giving Summer Bird WAY too many excuses in the Haskell. She trounced him very fairly.. and she was just 2 ticks off the track record in SLOP. Summer Bird ran a winning race in the Haskell.. he ran as good in that race as he has in others. Rachel is just better.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

You are giving Summer Bird WAY too many excuses in the Haskell. She trounced him very fairly.. and she was just 2 ticks off the track record in SLOP. Summer Bird ran a winning race in the Haskell.. he ran as good in that race as he has in others. Rachel is just better.

I find it funny that anyone would say the Haskell was made for RA.

The excuse about Summer Bird not racing where he likes to be is basically moot now that he used almost the EXACT same tactics in the Travers. They've obviously trained him to have more speed and it's been on display in each of his last two starts. Did he race on the worst part of the track? Potentially, but that's not enough to make up the chasm that existed between he and Rachel at the finish.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

You are giving Summer Bird WAY too many excuses in the Haskell. She trounced him very fairly.. and she was just 2 ticks off the track record in SLOP. Summer Bird ran a winning race in the Haskell.. he ran as good in that race as he has in others. Rachel is just better.

I'll try to explain this again why I believe that result was flattering to RA, when you expend energy early on in a race especially when it is not the norm in a horse's profile, It can be construed as valid reason why the winning margin may be skewed. RA ran her style sitting off of 2 horses dueling(her strength) and to her credit she capitalized on it. I will concede that at this stage RA's development is ahead of SB's, after all he was cutting back from a 1 1/2 to 1 1/8th. Hey I am not making excuses for him he and the entire field got beaten rather easily that day, but if the RA backers think she is consistently 10 lengths better than arguably the best 3 yr old colt thus far this year, I think they are very mistaken.

If they ever meet again with an added furlong, with a seasoned and rapidly improving SB on a fairer racetrack with different race dynamics where Summer Bird isn't forced to not run his style, I am extremely confident Rachel Alexandra will not be 10 lengths the better if she indeed is. We will see and I can't wait if and when it happens. Money is the name of the game and I hope my opinion is of the vast minority.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

I'll try to explain this again why I believe that result was flattering to RA, when you expend energy early on in a race especially when it is not the norm in a horse's profile, It can be construed as valid reason why the winning margin may be skewed. RA ran her style sitting off of 2 horses dueling(her strength) and to her credit she capitalized on it. I will concede that at this stage RA's development is ahead of SB's, after all he was cutting back from a 1 1/2 to 1 1/8th. Hey I am not making excuses for him he and the entire field got beaten rather easily that day, but if the RA backers think she is consistently 10 lengths better than arguably the best 3 yr old colt thus far this year, I think they are very mistaken.

If they ever meet again with an added furlong, with a seasoned and rapidly improving SB on a fairer racetrack with different race dynamics where Summer Bird isn't forced to not run his style, I am extremely confident Rachel Alexandra will not be 10 lengths the better if she indeed is. We will see and I can't wait if and when it happens. Money is the name of the game and I hope my opinion is of the vast minority.

I get what you are saying and in general, I think you are correct. However, after watching Summer Bird's run in the Travers, I think it's a mistake to say he was forced to altar his style in the Haskell. It looks more like that's his new style and he's better at it than his old style was. Sort of the same thing that happened with Mine that Bird in the Derby only in reverse. The Haskell was only his sixth career race. It's hard to say conclusively that a horse with only that many starts actually has a set style of running.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

I'll try to explain this again why I believe that result was flattering to RA, when you expend energy early on in a race especially when it is not the norm in a horse's profile, It can be construed as valid reason why the winning margin may be skewed. RA ran her style sitting off of 2 horses dueling(her strength) and to her credit she capitalized on it. I will concede that at this stage RA's development is ahead of SB's, after all he was cutting back from a 1 1/2 to 1 1/8th. Hey I am not making excuses for him he and the entire field got beaten rather easily that day, but if the RA backers think she is consistently 10 lengths better than arguably the best 3 yr old colt thus far this year, I think they are very mistaken.

If they ever meet again with an added furlong, with a seasoned and rapidly improving SB on a fairer racetrack with different race dynamics where Summer Bird isn't forced to not run his style, I am extremely confident Rachel Alexandra will not be 10 lengths the better if she indeed is. We will see and I can't wait if and when it happens. Money is the name of the game and I hope my opinion is of the vast minority.

When she wins the Woodward by 7 with a 117 BSF can we get a retraction?

[NTamm1215]

So basically if the distance is longer, the race dynamics different, the surface different, the moon slightly higher in the Western sky and the date an odd number, she might not beat him by that much?

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

When she wins the Woodward by 7 with a 117 BSF can we get a retraction?

This is insane logic, so we are running races on paper now and not on the track... Why race at all if we can cite beyers as if they were biblical.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So basically if the distance is longer, the race dynamics different, the surface different, the moon slightly higher in the Western sky and the date an odd number, she might not beat him by that much?

NT

Isn't it presumptious to place so much on one meeting and one result?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So basically if the distance is longer, the race dynamics different, the surface different, the moon slightly higher in the Western sky and the date an odd number, she might not beat him by that much?

NT

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Isn't it presumptious to place so much on one meeting and one result?

When the one meeting has many circumstantial occurrences and a narrow finish, maybe. In this case, doubtful.

NT

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

I'll try to explain this again why I believe that result was flattering to RA, when you expend energy early on in a race especially when it is not the norm in a horse's profile, It can be construed as valid reason why the winning margin may be skewed. RA ran her style sitting off of 2 horses dueling(her strength) and to her credit she capitalized on it. I will concede that at this stage RA's development is ahead of SB's, after all he was cutting back from a 1 1/2 to 1 1/8th. Hey I am not making excuses for him he and the entire field got beaten rather easily that day, but if the RA backers think she is consistently 10 lengths better than arguably the best 3 yr old colt thus far this year, I think they are very mistaken.

If they ever meet again with an added furlong, with a seasoned and rapidly improving SB on a fairer racetrack with different race dynamics where Summer Bird isn't forced to not run his style, I am extremely confident Rachel Alexandra will not be 10 lengths the better if she indeed is. We will see and I can't wait if and when it happens. Money is the name of the game and I hope my opinion is of the vast minority.

Who knows, maybe at 10 furlongs she is only 3 lengths better.. probably closer to 10 though. But Summer Bird ran a similar close to the pace race in the Travers and won by 3 1/2. So maybe he WAS in his comfort zone in the haskell.

If she was not in the race at Monmouth, Summer Bird would have won the race in a respectable time. Just like this past Saturday. He ran a real good race in the Haskell. She absolutely freaked (like she does every time she sets foot on a racetrack except the Preakness) and was 2 ticks off the track record while running over some soup.

Also, with regards to the 10 furlong thing.. She may have won the haskell by 15 or 20 had she had another furlong to keep moving.

I just dont think your Haskell arguement makes any sense.

If they races again at 1 1/4 I wouldnt bet on either horse. Rachel's odds would be too low, and I wouldnt want to lost my $ betting on the other bird.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by freddymo

When she wins the Woodward by 7 with a 117 BSF can we get a retraction?

you better knock on wood.

I'm starting to get nervous about the Woodward now. Last week I thought it would be no problem. Now when every single person on the planet talk like its a foregone conclusion... I start to get nervous.

It will be her biggest challenge of her career IMO... and will be a tougher race than the Travers turned out to be (which I was saying last week also).

While the older horses are nothing real special, there is still a reason that it is so unheard of for a 3yo filly to be taking on open competition on September 5th.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Isn't it presumptious to place so much on one meeting and one result?

Isnt is a little strange to call a horse, that less than a month ago was beaten by 6 lengths in a fairly run race, better than the horse that beat him?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

you better knock on wood.

I'm starting to get nervous about the Woodward now. Last week I thought it would be no problem. Now when every single person on the planet talk like its a foregone conclusion... I start to get nervous.

It will be her biggest challenge of her career IMO... and will be a tougher race than the Travers turned out to be (which I was saying last week also).

While the older horses are nothing real special, there is still a reason that it is so unheard of for a 3yo filly to be taking on open competition on September 5th.

It's not. That's just in the United States and that's just because the purses are good enough in their own division or in races for older females that trainers are reluctant to take the risk. That has more to do with why it's not done than because it's some outrageously hard task.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Isnt is a little strange to call a horse, that less than a month ago was beaten by 6 lengths in a fairly run race, better than the horse that beat him?

Better? Did I say that? I would like to know via quotation that I said Summer Bird was a better horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Who knows, maybe at 10 furlongs she is only 3 lengths better.. probably closer to 10 though. But Summer Bird ran a similar close to the pace race in the Travers and won by 3 1/2. So maybe he WAS in his comfort zone in the haskell.

If she was not in the race at Monmouth, Summer Bird would have won the race in a respectable time. Just like this past Saturday. He ran a real good race in the Haskell. She absolutely freaked (like she does every time she sets foot on a racetrack except the Preakness) and was 2 ticks off the track record while running over some soup.

Also, with regards to the 10 furlong thing.. She may have won the haskell by 15 or 20 had she had another furlong to keep moving.

I just dont think your Haskell arguement makes any sense.

If they races again at 1 1/4 I wouldnt bet on either horse. Rachel's odds would be too low, and I wouldnt want to lost my $ betting on the other bird.

3 to 15? Regardless I think it makes perfect sense, I project SB to be conservatively 5 times the odds as RA will be and I will certainly bet given the conditions I have mentioned were met.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

When the one meeting has many circumstantial occurrences and a narrow finish, maybe. In this case, doubtful.

NT

I can respect this statement, the other fan type of reactions of me seeing that another horse can beat RA is a mystery all in itself. If no one had a different opinion this would be a boring sport filled with betting 1/9 shots.