Dubai Carnival Contest III

[NoChanceToDance]

***UPDATE***

Our Giant has been scratched from the sprint. I understand that several people including me have included him, so just to let everyone know he's been scratched if anyone wants to change selections.

[Linny]

Race 1
Fareej-Cappiwino-alt Enak
Race 2
Palazzone-Swop altGreek Rennaissance

I hve to get back to my "real job" I'll post more in a few minutes.

[Linny]

More:

Race 3
Highland Glen- Lindner alt Lignon's Hero

Race 4
Re Barolo- Bab al Salam alt Antonios

Race 5
Raihana - Mensajera de la Luz alt Waasema

[viscount26]

Have to start from race 4 after digging my car out from the 15 inches of snow we had yesterday

4. Soy Libriano/Bob Al Salam

5. Ishitaki Nap / Raihana

6. Musaalem/ El Cambio

7. Mourilyan/ Once More Dubai

8. Shaweel/ Autonomy

Edit for the Scratch of Strike the Deal in the 6th

[Linny]

Here's the rest

Race 6
War Artist- Indian Chant alt Gayego
Race 7
Mourilyan Once More Dubai alt Quijano
Race 8
Shaweel - Autonomy alt Mc Cartney

[brockguy]

Scores after Day 4 - It looked like it was harder to find winners today than in previous weeks. Dylbert regains the lead.

Friday's winners and their odds (in decimal form) are as follows:
Mendip 2.375
Escape Route 13
Highland Glen 5.5
Lizard's Desire 2
Siyaadah 51
War Artist 4.5
Halicarnassus 10
Pan River 6



Position Today Previous Total Total

1. dylbert +345.2 +686.15 +1031.35
2. Linny -100 +987.25 +887.25
3. Hickory Hill Hoff -280 +1056.1 +776.1
4. Port Conway Lane -50 +720 +670
5. viscount26 -250 +861.85 +611.85
6. Roc525 +1.45 +234.3 +235.75
7. NoChanceToDance -85.3 +202.95 +117.65
8. mclem0822 -226.15 +17.6 -208.55
9. my miss storm cat +0 -210.05 -210.05
10. NTamm1215 +0 -326.3 -326.3
11. peetsa -197.5 -205 -402.5
12. chucklestheclown +0 -413.4 -413.4
13. Arletta +45.95 -510.5 -464.55
14. ryonker1 -376.25 -164.5 -540.75
15. The Bart -231.25 -312.95 -544.2
16. PatCummings -226.15 -323.1 -549.25
17. gamblin4ever -308.75 -292.65 -601.4
18. hoovesupsideyourhead -370 -334.45 -704.45 (slight change from last week Matt - my mistake!)
19. jaripeo -340 -589.19 -929.19
20. brockguy -300 -1123.75 -1423.75



If anyone has any queries regarding the scoring, just let me know (my PM is now no longer full!)

[ryonker1]

For Thurs the 18th
Race 2- #11 Frosty Secret, #6 Judd Street (alt #2 Classic Blade)
Race 3- #4 Monte Alto, #6 Book of Music (alt #9 Emirates Champion)
Race 4 - #2 Leahurst, #9 Embalo (alt #1 Aichi)
Race 5 - #2 Hunting Tower, #1 Summit Surge (alt #6 Atomic Rain)
Race 6 - #3 Quartier Latin, #11 Frozen Power (alt #4 Della Barba)
Race 7 - #8 Jalil, #3 Allybar (alt #4 Perfect Stride)
Race 8 - #5 Perfectly, #1 Aspectus (alt #12 Sovereign Remedy)

thanks
Ron

[The Bart]

Race 2
#12 Prohibit
#7 Prince Tamino
#11 Frosty Secret

Race 3
#1 Hot Six
#4 Monte Alto
#12 Mr Fasilyev

Race 4
#3 Star Crowned
#10 Prince Shaun
#5 Thors Echo

Race 5
#4 Munaddam alt NAP
#3 Mutheeb
#11 Sirocco Breeze

Race 6
#11 Frozen Power
#14 Musir
#10 Jardim

Race 7
#10 Crowded House NAP
#11 Snaafy
#3 Allybar

Race 8
#12 Sovreign Remedy
#13 Yasoodd
#1 Aspectus

[NoChanceToDance]

To begin with, I'll say that it looks very very competitive tomorrow. Given how the track played last week (everything came from the clouds to win), I have no idea how it'll play this week and from a punting point of view, It's a nightmare.

Here we go.

R1 - Prohibit (alt; Frosty Secret), Sol De Angra (alt; Matsunosuke)
R2 - Emirates Champion (alt; Monte Alto), Hot Six (alt; Titural)
R3 - Leahurst (alt; Aichi), Aranel (alt; Prime Defender)
R4 - Mutheeb (alt; Munaddam), Summit Surge (alt; Barbecue Eddie)
R5 - Quatier Latin (NAP) (alt; Real Secret), Storm Chispazo (alt; Musir)
R6 - Crowded House (alt; Snaafy), Perfect Stride (alt; Mr Crazy Boy)
R7 - Yasoodd (alt; Sovereign Remedy), Blues Ballad (alt; Balcarce Nov)

The first race sprint is a incredibly tricky contest, and as was said before much depends on how the track is riding. If horses are able to come from well off the pace again, Prohibit will be in with a massive chance granted a free passage through. There doesn't look like there is a great deal of pace in the race is a bit of a worry, though. Sol De Angra ran a decent first race in Dubai behind So Shiny last time and should improve, and rates as one of those who could race up with the pace if indeed there isn't much of it. Frosty Secret will have a chance again, but he usually finds one or two too good.

Emirates Champion has by far the best form in the field for the 2nd, and is lightly raced and will keep improving, you'd hope, and because of that he looks like the most likely winner, but the odds will be prohibitive. Hot Six ran a cracking race when in need of it last time, Gr1 form in South America and this extra furlong will help, he should give the favourite the most to do.

Although the drop in trip is a slight concern, Leahurst looked like a horse really going places last time and is hard to oppose under a 7lb higher mark. Aranel chansed him home last time, and arguably this 6f trip with a strong pace looks more ideal. If the track suits closers again, he could well cause an upset.

Mutheeb won too easily last time to not include in this, his form behind Leahurst looked good previously and he showed he is in great heart, still fairly handicapped and they certainly won't allow Barbecue Eddie to set the modest fractions he was allowed to on his last start and he will probably be a sahde outclassed in this. Summit Surge is going to improve a good deal for his reappearance after a long time off and will go very close once again, but I still feel he'd be better suited by a mile. The one that concerns me is Munaddam who still has a decent prize in him despite his increasing years, I selected him last time and it's been very hard for me to only have him as a first reserve for this. We shall see if that turns out to be a costly mistake, it certainly wouldn't surprise me.

My NAP goes in the guineas, but that is simply because I did not know where else to place my NAP, with each race being as competitive as the other. Doug Watson has kept no secrets regarding Quartier Latin and simply believes he is the best horse he has had for the carnival in several years. He has top class form in South America, has been trained for this race and I expact him to go very close at least with plenty in his favour. The Argentine Derby winner, Storm Chispazo is fascinating, but surely he will need a longer trip, but his class will tell and can run into a place, hopefully chasing the Watson trained horse. Musir was a hard horse to only include as a reserve, but he's yet to tackle this mile distance (he would have been beaten over this trip last time) and the 14 box makes life very tough for him, it'll take a monsterous performance for him to gain a win here in my opinion.

If the Maktoum Challenge was being run on turf, I'd have no doubt my nap would have been Perfect Stride, a quirky customer, who has any amount of ability, especially when returning from a break. However, he has no artifical surface experience. He is sure to have been trained on it, but it's the reason for him only being the second selection. Crowded House was a big eyecatcher last time, this extra ground will help and after that one run, you'd think he will be spot on for this. His only race to date on an artificial surface recorded an emphatic win and this hold up performer has everything right to run a very big race. I think the winner will definitely come from the two I have mentioned.

I've taken a bit of a gamble in the last by selecting Yasoodd and Blues Ballad who both appear pretty well handicapped here, and have as good a chance as many of them - not a race I want to get too involved in, however.

Good luck to all who play.

[brockguy]

As No Chance said above, looks like a tough day ahead with big questions on how the course will handle.

Race 1 - Classic Blade, Frosty Secret alt Calrissian
Race 2 - Hot Six (NAP), Emirates Champion alt Book Of Music
Race 3 - Leahurst, Iguazu Falls alt Aranel
Race 4 - Summit Surge, Dohasa alt Sirocco Breeze
Race 5 - Oroveso, Musir alt Olympic Danz
Race 6 - Crowded House, Mr. Brock alt Snaafy
Race 7 - Aspectus, Balcarce Nov alt Halkin

Best of luck all..

[Arletta]

R1)#11 Frosty Secret,#8 Good Control (alt:5)
R2)#1 Hot Six,#2 Titurel (alt:4)
R3)#1 Aichi,#2 Leahurst (alt:7)
R4)#8 Marching,#7 Dohasa (alt:8)
R5)#8 Storm Chispazo,#14 Musir, (alt:11)
R6)#11 Snaffy,6 Calvados Blues (alt:9)
R7)#2 Calming Influence,#5 Perfectly (alt:14)

Forgot to NAP... One race to go so Calming Influence will be my "NAP"

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

2nd) Frosty Secret #11 & Prince Tamino #7 (alt. #12)
3rd) Emirates Champion #9 & Hot Six #1 (alt. #4)
4th) Leahurst #2 & Embalo #9 (alt. #5)
5th) Barbecue Eddie #12 & Mutheeb #3 (alt. #6)
6th) Storm Chispazo #8 (NAP) & Musir #14 (alt. #11)
7th) Snaafy #11 & Jalil #8 (alt. #10)
8th) Sovereign Remedy #12 & Perfectly #5 (alt. #4)

[mclem0822]

Race 2-#11 Frosty Secret #7 Prince Tamino (alt-#2 Classic Blade)
Race 3-#9 Emirates Champion #7 Quai d'Orsay (alt-#4 Monte Alto)
Race 4-#4 Prime Defender(NAP) #9 Embalo (alt-#2 Leahurst)
Race 5-#2 Hunting Tower #12 Barbecue Eddie (alt-#8 Marching)
Race 6- #8 Storm Chispazo #14 Musir (alt-#11 Frozen Power)
Race 7-#3 Allybar #11 Snaafy (alt-#10 Crowded House)
Race 8-#5 Perfectly #12 Sovereign Remedy (alt-#9 Codigo De Honor)

Good Luck All!

[my miss storm cat]

R2, Rileyskeepingfaith, Lui Rey (alt. Frosty Secret)

R6, Storm Chispazo, Musir (alt.Della Barba)

R7, Jet Express (NAP ), Allybar (alt. Poet)

Come home safe.

Good luck, everyone!

[PatCummings]

Race 2 - #11 Frosty Secret, #12 Prohibit (alt #8 Good Control)
Race 3 - 9 Emirates Champion, 12 Mister Fasilyev (alt 4 Monte Alto)
Race 4 - 2 Leahurst, 4 Prime Defender (alt 7 Aranel)
Race 5 - 12 Barbecue Eddie, 1 Summit Surge (alt 9 Don Renato)
Race 6 - 8 Storm Chispazo, 11 Frozen Power (alt 14 Musir)
Race 7 - 10 Crowded House NAP, 11 Snaffy (alt 7 Storm Sir)
Race 8 - 2 Calming Influence, 14 Blues Ballad (alt 12 Sovereign Remedy)

[gamblin4ever]

R2: Classic Blade, Lui Rei
alt: Frosty Secret
R3: Emirates Champion, Monte Alto
alt: Mr. Fasliyev
R4: Thors Echo, Leahurst
alt: Star Crowned
R5: Sirroco Breeze, BBQ Eddie
alt: Hunting Tower
R6: Musir, Storm Chispazo
alt: Solid Choice
R7: Perfect Stride, Crowded House
alt: My Crazy Boy
R8: (NAP) Perfectly, Sovereign Remedy
alt: Aspectus

[dylbert]

R2: 4 Prohibit / 11 Frosty Secret (alt. 5 Sol de Angra)
R3: 9 Emirates Champion / 1 Hot Six (alt. 4 Monte Alto)
R4: 4 Prime Defender / 2 Leahurst (alt. 7 Aranel)
R5: 3 Summit Surge / 8 Mutheeb (alt. 10 Sirrocco Breeze)
R6: 8 Storm Chispazo / 3 Quartier Latin (alt. 11 Frozen Power)
R7: 8 Jalil / 11 Snaafy (alt. 10 Crowded House)
R8: 14 Blues Ballad / 12 Sovereign Remedy (alt. 5 Perfectly)

NAP

[The Bart]

2) 7 prince tamino
11 frostys secret
5 sol de angra

3) 4 monte alto
9 emirates champion
2 titural

4) 7 aranel NAP
5 thors echo
1 aichi

5) 3 mutheeb
8 marching
1 summit surge

6) 11 frozen power
14 musir
13 solid choice

7) 4 perfect stride
10 crowded house
5 jet express

8) 12 sovreign remedy
2 calming influence
8 balcarce now

[chucklestheclown]

Sorry Pat:
I saw your picks last week on TVG but I am very busy and have full faith in you

Race 2 - #8 Good Control,#11 Frosty Secret, (alt-#12 Prohibit)
Race 3 - 9 Emirates Champion(NAP), 12 Mister Fasilyev (alt 4 Monte Alto)
Race 4 - 2 Leahurst, 4 Prime Defender (alt 7 Aranel)
Race 5 - 12 Barbecue Eddie(alt nap), 1 Summit Surge (alt 9 Don Renato)
Race 6 - 11 Frozen Power, 8 Storm Chispazo, (alt 14 Musir)
Race 7 - 10 Crowded House, 11 Snaffy (alt 7 Storm Sir)
Race 8 - 12 Sovereign Remedy,2 Calming Influence (alt-14 Blues Ballad )

Friday:
R2-Secrecy,Gallagher(alt-Destitude)
R3-KING OF ROME(NAP),Drunken Sailor (alt-Espiritu)
R4-Global City, Tawaassol (alt-Oasis Star)
R5-Trois Roi, Firebet (alt-Naval Officer)
R6-Stoic, Lelah Dorak, (alt-Counsel General)
R7-Justenuhumor(alt nap),IbnKahldun.(alt-Debussy)
R8-Don Velez, Art of War (alt-Rockette if he draws in, Proponent if he does not)

[Roc525]

R2: SOL DE ANGRA - PRINCE TAMINO (GOOD CONTROL)
R3: MONTE ALTO - TITUREL (EMIRATES CHAMPION)
R4: ARANEL - STAR CROWNED (AICHI)
R5: DOHASA - SUMMIT SURGE (BARBECUE EDDIE)
R6: MAROON MACHINE - SOLID CHOICE (QUARTIER LATIN)
R7: PERFECT STRIDE - ALLYBAR (MR. BROCK)
R8: SOVEREIGN REMEDY - PERFECTLY (CALMING INFLUENCE)