Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

uncle.....

Winter in Erie is looooooooonnng.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

uncle.....

Opposite of uncle.

This is beyond mind-blowing in its awesomeness.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Are you implying 7/1 shot Quality Road put in a non-effort - gee, no kidding.

By the way - I watched Cowboys Get Even get dusted by double digits at Charles Town last week to a horse that was in for a $12,500 claiming tag...he's yet to win and has burned a lot of money since that brilliant thread you started about him ....

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33856

Here's a chart of his most recent race in case you've finally given up and stopped following him.

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...01112&raceNo=8

Thanks. There's some good entertainment in that thread.

[The Bid]

Yikes

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Every trainer on the West Coast thought Zenyatta didn't feel right to them early on ... and yet she overcame this ailment that plagued her so terribly through the first three furlongs of the race?

Yeah, ok.

If you ever watch horses train in the morning or if you ever read any of the clockers' reports (Mike Welsch's for example), then you know that there are plenty of horses that are stiff when they first come on the track and they may take a half-mile to warm up. Some of them look very choppy in the beginning of their gallops but once they warm up they look much better.

Zenyatta looked very stiff early in the race. That's not debatable. Anyone that knows what they are looking at will tell you this. The most likely reason she was so stiff in the early going of the race was because they did not warm her up in the post parade. It was 40 degrees out. That was a big mistake.

I know why they never warm her up. They never warm her up in the post parade because they want to keep her calm. They can get away with that when it's 70 degrees out, but not when it's 40 degrees. I can't really fault Mike Smith though because the guy obviously did not want to change a routine that has worked 19 out of 19 times.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If you ever watch horses train in the morning or if you ever read any of the clockers' reports (Mike Welsch's for example), then you know that there are plenty of horses that are stiff when they first come on the track and they may take a half-mile to warm up. Some of them look very choppy in the beginning of their gallops but once they warm up they look much better.

Zenyatta looked very stiff early in the race. That's not debatable. Anyone that knows what they are looking at will tell you this. The most likely reason she was so stiff in the early going of the race was because they did not warm her up in the post parade. It was 40 degrees out. That was a big mistake.

I know why they never warm her up. They never warm her up in the post parade because they want to keep her calm. They can get away with that when it's 70 degrees out, but not when it's 40 degrees. I can't really fault Mike Smith though because the guy obviously did not want to change a routine that has worked 19 out of 19 times.

She didn't look stiff to me. Life at Ten looked stiff.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Are you implying 7/1 shot Quality Road put in a non-effort - gee, no kidding.

By the way - I watched Cowboys Get Even get dusted by double digits at Charles Town last week to a horse that was in for a $12,500 claiming tag...he's yet to win and has burned a lot of money since that brilliant thread you started about him ....

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33856

Here's a chart of his most recent race in case you've finally given up and stopped following him.

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...01112&raceNo=8

Cowboy Gets Even actually did improve 10 Beyer points off the race where I thought he had all the trouble. The race where I thought he had 8 lengths of trouble, he ran a 66 Beyer. In his next two races, he ran a 75 and a 76. So according to the numbers you guys trust so much, the horse actaully did move way up. I expected him to move up 8 lengths. What did he end up moving up, 5 or 6 lengths?

The horse is obviously not right. He was running close 2nds at Laurel in nwx1 races. Now he's losing the same races by 10 lengths.

Despite that, I will take the blame for a bad pick. The bottom line is that I thought the horse would turn out to be a very good horse. He's turned out to be a pathetic horse. Regardless of the reason, I was wrong. Whether it is because the horse is lame or he just didn't have the ability, he didn't turn out to be a good horse. I admit it. I'm not going to be right 100% of the time. Not every maiden winner that I'm impressed with turns out to be a good horse. Most of them do, but not every one.

[blackthroatedwind]

As long as you refuse to even try to learn anything from others.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As long as you refuse to even try to learn anything from others.....

Why try when you have such a magical eye? .... and the brilliance of "every trainer on the West Coast and Mike Smith" to guide you.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wow - you are truly weapons grade stupid. You actually think there are 5 lengths in a second? Tears, Jerry, Tears.

Mathematically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. Do you have a harness racing background or something?

It obviously depends on the rate of speed....but as a rule of thumb, one full second equals about six lengths.

I told you already - based on the information in the result chart - Zenyatta ran her final mile in 1:36.27 - and final six furlongs in 1:12.59 - those times come from Formulator's chart.

You - keep saying she ran her final seven furlongs in 1:23 1/5.

Which means you keep insisting that she ran the 4th furlong of the race in 10.61 seconds... after running her 3rd furlong of the race in 13.07 seconds.

I actually did used to go to the harness races occasioanlly as a teenager. And you are right that in thoroughbred racing it is approximately 6 lengths per second rather than 5. That is what I should be using. It is more accurate.

I was being conservative when I said Zenyatta was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs. There is no official number of how far back she was, but there are plenty of people (Richard Migliore) and articles that think she was closer to 25 lengths back (between calls after about 3 furlongs). If she was 24 lengths back, that would mean she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:23 1/5. If she was exactly 20 back, then she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:23 4/5. If she was 22 lengths back, then it was more like 1:23 2/5 or 1:23 3/5.

How far back do you think she was after 3 furlongs?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As long as you refuse to even try to learn anything from others.....

I've learned a lot in this thread from you and DrugS. I thought that Zenyatta looked extremely stiff in the early going of the race. After finding out that she was not warmed up in the post parade, I thought that explained why she looked so uncomfortable in the early going of the race and why she fell so far behind.

But after listening to you guys, I now realize that Zenyatta was travelling perfect in the early stages of the race. The reason she fell so far behind is because she is incapable of comfortably going faster than :38 and change from the gate. Thanks for teaching me that.

Here is one of the best mares of all times that could breeze 3 furlongs in :36 and change from the gate with her eyes closed and you guys (or at least DrugS) think she can't comfortably break :38 and change. Thanks for the info guys.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wow - you are truly weapons grade stupid. You actually think there are 5 lengths in a second? Tears, Jerry, Tears.

Mathematically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. Do you have a harness racing background or something?

It obviously depends on the rate of speed....but as a rule of thumb, one full second equals about six lengths.

I told you already - based on the information in the result chart - Zenyatta ran her final mile in 1:36.27 - and final six furlongs in 1:12.59 - those times come from Formulator's chart.

You - keep saying she ran her final seven furlongs in 1:23 1/5.

Which means you keep insisting that she ran the 4th furlong of the race in 10.61 seconds... after running her 3rd furlong of the race in 13.07 seconds.

I just watched the race a few more times. She was actually the furthest back after 2 1/2 furlongs. She was probably 22 or so lengths back after 2 1/2 furlongs. So that means she ran her final 7 1/2 furlongs in 1:29 3/5, which is more impressive than her final 7 furlongs.

I think her correct final 7 furlong time was a few ticks slower than I originally thought. I think she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:23 4/5 (I originally had said 1:23 1/5).

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I just watched the race a few more times.

I watched it again and from the broadcast view it's impossible for me to determine how far back she was after 2 1/2 furlongs.

I think her correct final 7 furlong time was a few ticks slower than I originally thought.

Soon after the leader crossed the 7 furlong marker the camera showed a view that could more accurately estimate how far back she was and 16 lengths is my guess.

[Travis Stone]

It's a good thing she was so far behind... if she was closer, who knows how much punch she has late. The pace killed the chances of anyone close to it... the farther off, the better.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I watched it again and from the broadcast view it's impossible for me to determine how far back she was after 2 1/2 furlongs.



Soon after the leader crossed the 7 furlong marker the camera showed a view that could more accurately estimate how far back she was and 16 lengths is my guess.

I don't know if you have an account there, but Racereplays.com has the normal pan-shot of the race. You can make a pretty good estimate from that angle.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It's a good thing she was so far behind... if she was closer, who knows how much punch she has late. The pace killed the chances of anyone close to it... the farther off, the better.

The further back the better? If Mike Smith would have known that, he could have dropped a few lengths further back. I'm sure he would have won then.

[slotdirt]

How hard is it to understand that the only reason she even came close to winning was because she was so far off that pace? This really is not rocket science.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The further back the better? If Mike Smith would have known that, he could have dropped a few lengths further back. I'm sure he would have won then.

If Borel only had Mine That Bird five lengths closer to the lead going into the 1st turn - he would have won the Kentucky Derby by 12 lengths instead of 7.




If Ice Box was only 20 back at the first call instead of 24 back - and Make Music Music For Me was only 23 back instead of 28 back at the first call - Ice Box would have won the Derby in a route with Make Music For Me 2nd.

You're basically KYRIM ... but because you're not a 20-year-old female people don't want to give you crap. Did Zenyatta also crossfire?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Borel only had Mine That Bird five lengths closer to the lead going into the 1st turn - he would have won the Kentucky Derby by 12 lengths instead of 7.




If Ice Box was only 20 back at the first call instead of 24 back - and Make Music Music For Me was only 23 back instead of 28 back at the first call - Ice Box would have won the Derby in a route with Make Music For Me 2nd.

You're basically KYRIM ... but because you're not a 20-year-old female people don't want to give you crap. Did Zenyatta also crossfire?

Being way back totally helped Ice Box and Make Music For Me. I have never disputed that. That was a race in the slop where the half-mile went :46. That's a nice comparison. You're going to compare 3 year olds going :46 in the slop to older horses going :47 on a fast track. Good argument.

By the way, how did Zenyatta get within a head of Blame? He wasn't going too fast. He went :48 4/5 or :49. He had no excuses and he only beat Zenyatta by a head. I thought he was 10 lengths better than Zenyatta.

[slotdirt]

I give credit to Robert for defending his position, but he's worse than Joe Miller in realizing that he's been soundly defeated.