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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
The way I see it, in this terrible field, you should have to prove why somebody DOESN'T have a shot, and no one's done that with Smooth Air.
I've said why I like him, but if you wanna hear it again..
He's got figures comparable to anything anybody else (except for Big Brown and Pyro) has run, he's got a fine distance pedigree, and he's got ideal tactical speed. His small stature concerns me slightly, but at 25-1+, I honestly don't understand how anybody can be tossing him.
As for me being a "sheet user", I use the TG numbers, but I'm not like you in that I don't think there are these rigid rules for what's going to happen in the next race based on a horse's "pattern". Most of the time, I don't really care much what a horse's "pattern" is, I just want to see if he/she has run fast enough to contend. Smooth Air, according to Beyers and TG figs, has indisputably done so.
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TG's have far from ridgid rules but there are specific patterns that are more profitable then others. I wouldn't consider Pyro fast, because his two numbers this year are on average with everyone else. I personally think the number from the BC is cooked, because of the condition of the track.
I question his fine distance pedigree, Storm Boot is not known for 10 panel horses, and his damn didn't route at all, she was bred to be any kind. While he does have ideal running type, he has that at 7f and 8.5f, last time he was 'given' that running style by his post, he got an ideal trip, and probably should have run a little bit better. And his number did come back fast, but he is far more likely to off or X off that effort IMO, then he is to move forward or pair that effort, an off here, doesn't have him in the top five, as their are several forward moving horses coming in. They might be slow this year, but at least they are progressing....
04-23-2008, 11:05 PM
Exactly.
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