New Zealand Racing, 2009-10

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Okay well that tells me something about this guy!

I know! Hope he does well.

MILTARY MOVE

3 g Volksraad - All Night Party
7 starts - 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
Trainer: Shaune Ritchie
Odds: 20-1

Replays:
Best: 2000 Guineas (2nd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8Hyvcnk1EI
Last start: Championshp Stakes (5th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

+ Never, ever runs a bad race - no matter what track, distance, track condition
+ Huge finish in the Championship Stakes

- Hasn't won a race since September.

Verdict: He's never finished further back than 5th in his life, and 6 of his 7 career starts have been in stakes races. But he always seems to find one or two horses that are a tiny bit better on the day, and he hasn't won a race since September. I don't think he can win the Derby, but he could come a nice 2nd, 3rd or 4th if he has a good day.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

I don't think he can win the Derby, but he could come a nice 2nd, 3rd or 4th if he has a good day.

... and win a really nice one later in the year, huh?

He's an awfully nice boy it's just there are too many really reeeeally good ones this year.

I love his name.

Well I do!

[_ed_]

It's a good name! And yeah, I could see him winning a nice race somewhere.

Big news:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/racing/new...ectid=10628101

Katie.
Feel sorry for Michael though. But he gets Imabayboy.

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by _ed_

But he gets Imabayboy.

IMABAYBOY

3 g San Luis - English Kath
14 starts - 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Trainer: Trent Busuttin
Odds: 20-1

Replays:
Best, last start: Rating 80 (1st): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xccj0f_imabayboy

+ 5 wins - more than anyone in the field except Katie Lee
+ Not far away and a bit unlucky when 5th in the Waikato Guineas
+ Huge win last start (against good older horses) at his first try at 2100m - 2400m should be fine

- Hasn't really been racing against great opposition until his last couple

Verdict: I don't know! I thought he wasn't good enough, but I've had to change my mind about him in the last couple of weeks. I think if he had been born a year earlier, he would have won the Derby last year. But this year's field is so much tougher, so I don't know. Like Military Move, there's a nice race for him somewhere.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

It's a good name! And yeah, I could see him winning a nice race somewhere.

Big news:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/racing/new...ectid=10628101

Katie.
Feel sorry for Michael though. But he gets Imabayboy.

Oh wow huge news but yeah I feel bad too...

Very rushed, will read again later but hey I'm glad she's going to the Derby!!!!!

[_ed_]

TIME KEEPER

3 c Stravinsky - Organdy
20 starts - 1 win, 6 thirds
Odds: 30-1

Replays:
Best: Great Northern Guineas (3rd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDufBBwx5Ig
Last start: Championship Stakes (4th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

+ Keeps running amazing races against the best 3yos at huge odds - 3rd in the Wanganui Guineas, Great Northern Guineas and Karaka Mile and 4th in the Championship Stakes
+ Has won over 2100m, so should be fine at the distance

- 1 win from 20 starts. Come on. No horse can win the Derby with that kind of record...right?
- Trained by the same guy who trains poor old Sir Slick

Verdict: His record has probably been damaged by the fact that, like Sir Slick, he's sometimes forced to race when he's not at peak fitness and form. He's surprised me a few times with very very good performances in some of our best 3yo races so far, but I still don't think he's quite good enough to do it again in the Derby.

Not many Derby winners finish outside the top four 12 times in their career before the Derby!

He obviously has a lot of ability though. I wish he'd been looked after by a better trainer.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

- Trained by the same guy who trains poor old Sir Slick

He obviously has a lot of ability though. I wish he'd been looked after by a better trainer.

I really wish this guy well...( and an eventual trainer switch).

These are great, ed. Thanks for taking the time to put these profiles together and for posting them one at a time which makes it more fun (I think so anyway. Instead of being overwhelmed I like looking foreward to these and taking my time watching their replays, etc.).

[_ed_]

It's no trouble, I enjoy doing it.

MARTIAL ART

3 g Tiger Hill - Kwan
7 starts - 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Trainer: Mark Walker
Odds: 60-1

Replays:

Best: Karaka Mile (2nd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQ_bdR-meI
Last start: Championship Stakes (7th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

+ Has proven his ability against the best 3yos
+ Last start 7th was better than it sounds
+ Likely to be ridden by Vinnie Colgan, who has won the Derby 4 times.

- Inconsistent
- Some doubt about the distance

Verdict: I think this is one of the better longshots in the race. He was one of the favourites when the first Derby odds came out after some impressive wins against low class opposition. He's failed to live up to that promise, but his Karaka Mile run was amazing and he was half a length behind Zarzuela in the Guineas Prelude. I think people have forgotten him too quickly.

[_ed_]

Another one now, since I have friends staying with me for the weekend, so it might be a couple of days until I can do any more...

JUNGLE JUICE

3 f Jungle Pocket - Shadow Ray
9 starts - 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds
Trainer: Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs
Odds: 60-1

Replays:
Bonecrusher Stakes (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFCpKz_orIk
Waikato Guineas (3rd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMqU75285M

I went for the Waikato since you've probably watched the Championship Stakes enough! She hardly shows up in that replay anyway - goes to the back and doesn't make up much ground, finishing 13th.

+ Has beaten the boys at stakes level on this track
+ Big run in the Waikato Guineas two starts back
+ Noel Harris is one of the best big-race jockeys in NZ

- Very poor in the Championship Stakes
- Hasn't won since the Bonecrusher Stakes in September
- Her bad performances seem to be far more frequent than her good ones

Verdict: On her day, she can be highly competitive against the very best. But that seems to happen rarely. She has the ability to make her presence felt in this Derby, but her performances so far suggest she's more likely to run poorly than well.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

I went for the Waikato since you've probably watched the Championship Stakes enough! She hardly shows up in that replay anyway - goes to the back and doesn't make up much ground, finishing 13th.

Yeah I was going to say I can never watch that one enough and why do I only vaguely remember her name!

Her I've heard of at least, Martial Art is a new one (to me) or there are just so many that I'm getting confused haha!

* * *

A (VERY ) nice bit of news.

On The Man...

http://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/n....aspx?id=45422

[_ed_]

That was a great performance! I'll post replays of that race, Banchee's amazing G2 win and today's awesome G1 soon.

But first, another Derby horse...

HANDSOME ZULU

3 g Handsome Ransom - Bionic Eagle
8 starts - 1 win, 3 seconds
Trainer: John Sargent
Odds: 14-1

Replays:
Best: Wellington Stakes (2nd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vcezz7ngkrY
Last start: 3yo & 4yo Handicap (4th): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xce...zulu-4th_sport

+ Excellent performances in G1 Levin Classic (6th) and G3 Wellington Stakes (2nd)
+ The way he finished over 1600m in the Wellington Stakes suggested he'll stretch out over more distance easily
+ Sargent/Du Plessis team in outstanding form this summer

- Although unlucky last start, you would like a horse to go into the Derby with stronger last-start form than a fourth in a minor handicap (but that race was won by the G1-placed Juice)
- Just one win from eight starts

Verdict: Seems to be improving all the time and will probably be peaking on Derby day. But with less winning form than many of his hugely talented rivals in the Derby and an uninspiring performance last start, there are others that appeal more in what looks like an amazing Derby field.

[_ed_]

Replays from this weekend...

Nacho Man - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_MJZF381Ek

G2 win for Banchee - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFqKktnIdts

G1...I have no words. So, so happy for him - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q77A3q5ajdI

[my miss storm cat]

I had no idea who you were talking about here so clicked on the link and intentially didn't look to see who had won.

I'm waiting.... watching him and waiting to see who is going to pass him and hoping no one does but thinking well... I shouldn't hold my breath here! Watching, waiting and he's digging in and fighting and suddenly it looks easy for him again and oh wow.... very very happy to see that fire and that determination.

That was a great start to the day watching a champion look like a champion once more!

Thanks for the other replays!

(Very nice, Banchee!!!)

[_ed_]

Great to have him back. One of my favourite races of the season so far!

Now back to the Derby horses...the photos of the rest of these horses aren't great, sorry about that.

BALLYBIT

3 g Spartacus - Miss Grosvenor
11 starts - 2 wins, 3 seconds
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Odds: 30-1

Replays:
Best: Ellerslie 3yo race (1st): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xce...llerslie_sport
Last start: Rating 80 (8th ): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xceuix_ballybit-8th

+ Owner-trainer combination won the 2006 Derby with Wahid
+ Very, very good win at the Derby track on Jan 31 (replay above)

- 6th and 8th in average-quality races he should have won in his last two starts

Verdict: Looked like he was about to make his presence felt in the Derby when he had that impressive win at Ellerslie, but something's gone seriously wrong in his two races since. Sharrock's a great trainer, but I think he'll have to produce a miracle to turn his form around enough.

[_ed_]

SMOKIN' GUN

3 g High Chaparral - Rapida
7 starts - 2 wins, 1 second
Trainer: Craig Thornton
Odds: 60-1

Replays:

Woodville Rating 70 (1st): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xcf...oodville_sport
Last start: Waikato Guineas (13th): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMqU75285M

+ Excellent pedigree - High Chaparral is having an amazing season, and Rapida is the dam of several horses that have done well in stakes races over long distances (Gin Dartre, Courtney, Ivy's League)
+ Stylish win at Woodville
+ Had excuses when he finished 12th, 8 lengths behind Katie Lee, in the 2000 Guineas

- Last in the Waikato Guineas last start. Didn't have a perfect trip, but should have done much better.

Verdict: This is a talented 3yo, but his last-start performance in the Waikato Guineas was too bad for him to be a legitimate contender here. He'd have to improve by at least 15 lengths. Should be closer to 100-1.

[_ed_]

Last one!

VOLGUS

3 c Volksraad - Gussy Godiva
10 starts - 1 win, 3 seconds, 1 third
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Odds: 100-1

Replays:
2yo win: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xcf...hastings_sport
Last start: Rating 70 (2nd): http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xcf...lgus-2nd_sport

+ Half-brother to Rios and Roman Emperor. Roman Emperor won the AJC Derby in Sydney.
+ Very good win against a good field as a 2yo
+ Strong 2nd (against a poor field) over 2000m last time

- No wins as a 3yo

Verdict: I actually really like this horse. He's beautifully bred, and he hasn't done much wrong in his racing career - he's finished in the first five 7 times out of 10. But he hasn't been racing against strong company this year, and hasn't won a race since he was 2. The Derby might be too soon for him, but I still don't think he should be at 100-1. Legitimate chance of finishing in the money.

[_ed_]

And here's the field:

1 MONACO CONSUL
Draw: 8
Trainer: Mike & Paul Moroney
Jockey: Leith Innes
Odds: 5-1

2 MILITARY MOVE
Draw: 4
Trainer: Shaune Ritchie
Jockey: Michael Walker
Odds: 25-1

3 KING RAEDWALD
Draw: 15
Trainer: Kevin Gray
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Odds: 11-1

4 MARTIAL ART
Draw: 7
Trainer: Mark Walker
Jockey: Vinnie Colgan
Odds: 60-1

5 TIME KEEPER
Draw: 9
Trainer: Graeme Nicholson & Paul Allbon
Jockey: Andrew Calder
Odds: 30-1

6 CORPORAL JONES
Draw: 11
Trainer: Andrew Scott
Jockey: Zac Purton
Odds: 4-1

7 SMOKIN' GUN
Draw: 5
Trainer: Craig Thornton
Jockey: Lisa Allpress
Odds: 40-1

8 BALLYBIT
Draw: 6
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Odds: 30-1

9 IMABAYBOY
Draw: 14
Trainer: Trent Busuttin
Jockey: Michael Coleman
Odds: 20-1

10 HANDSOME ZULU
Draw: 3
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Odds: 13-1

11 VOLGUS
Draw: 1
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Jockey: Allan Peard
Odds: 100-1

12 NO EMOTION
Draw: 2
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Jonathan Riddell

13 KATIE LEE
Draw: 10
Trainer: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
Jockey: Opie Bosson
Odds: 6-1

14 ZARZUELA
Draw: 13
Trainer: Mark Walker
Jockey: James McDonald
Odds: 2.8-1

15 JUNGLE JUICE
Draw: 12
Trainer: Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs
Jockey: Troy Harris
Odds: 60-1

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

And here's the field:

OHMYGODARENTYOUEXCITED?!!!!!

I like so many of these horses... gotta hope Katie wins though.

Katie Lee
Zarzuela
Monaco Consul and I'mabayboy (I love him! ) in either order

I'll be happy if any of these four win.

Hell I'll just be happy for the winner, period.

Nice, nice field and thank you ed for educating us, for your insight, your time and for your enthusiasm which is contagious.

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

OHMYGODARENTYOUEXCITED?!!!!!

So, so excited!

And you're welcome. Thanks for reading it all! It's been a hard time for me since my girlfriend unexpectedly broke up with me at the end of January, and thinking and talking about the sport I love has really helped.

Katie winning the Derby would help even more!

[my miss storm cat]

I'm sorry, ed.

Sending you hugs.

I won't give you any crappy advice here except to say that you'll meet the person who deserves you. I guess she just wasn't that person.

For now though try to be happy.

Katie said so!