My final prediction for the field:
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So here we are, college basketball's version of Election Night. the dust has all but settled after 4+ months of college basketball, and we enter the final two hours before the brackets are revealed with most of the field set. But as always, there's a group of teams that will be fighting for the final 2 or 3 bids. This was one of the weaker bubbles in recent memory, so all of these teams will have fatal flaws, and the picture is a little blurrier than I allowed last night. But let's start with what we know. Here are your final consensus at-large locks:
Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
If you're going by what most people are saying, that leaves 5 bids for this contingent: Utah State, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Florida, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Mississippi
Well I, for one, refuse to believe that UTEP is a lock and Utah State isn't. Let's compare the two.
• UTEP, 39 RPI, 111 SOS, 26-6 (15-1), 2-1 v RPI TOP 50, 8-4 v RPI TOP 100, 18-2 v RPI 101+, 11-4 R/N, 167 AVG RPI WIN, 73 AVG RPI LOSS
• UTAH STATE, 31 RPI, 100 SOS, 26-7 (14-2), 2-1 v RPI TOP 50, 10-5 v RPI TOP 100, 16-2 v RPI 101+, 10-6 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 168, 80 AVG RPI LOSS
Again, I'd love to hear the difference between those two teams. Conventional wisdom says Conference USA is better than the WAC. Conventional wisdom is dumb. The RPI ranks the WAC (10th) AHEAD of C-USA (11th). So if Utah State's name isn't on a line tonight, I don't expect UTEP's to be either. 4 bids.
Cal is in. I know, the Bears are only 1-6 against the RPI top 50, but there's no way they're getting left out. They've looked very strong since losing at Oregon State on 2/18 and their computer profile is stellar relative to other bubble teams. They'll be wearing road jerseys, but they'll be playing on Thursday or Friday. 3 bids.
Minnesota's getting in. The Gophers are hurt by only going 9-9 in the Big Ten and took a lopsided loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten final, but their run in the conference tourney, plus their absolute obliteration of Purdue on Saturday was enough to convince the committee that they're good enough to win games in the tournament. 2 bids.
Now it gets less clear cut. 2 bids are left for 8 pretty evenly matched teams. These are the teams that'll be sweating it out for the next hour or so. Here's their respective at-large credentials on paper:
• ILLINOIS, 75 RPI, 35 SOS, 19-14 (10-8), 5-9 v RPI TOP 50, 6-10 v RPI TOP 100, 13-4 v RPI 101+, 7-10 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 158, AVG RPI LOSS 56
• WAKE FOREST, 37 RPI, 29 SOS, 19-10 (9-7), 6-5 v RPI TOP 50, 9-10 v RPI TOP 100, 10-0 v RPI 101+, 6-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 131, AVG RPI LOSS 60
• VIRGINIA TECH, 60 RPI, 133 SOS, 23-8 (10-6), 3-4 v RPI TOP 50, 8-7 v RPI TOP 100, 15-1 v RPI 101+, 8-7 R/N, AVG RPI WIN AVG RPI WIN 170, AVG RPI LOSS 61
• MISSISSIPPI STATE, 56 RPI, 97 SOS, 23-11 (11-5), 2-5 v RPI TOP 50, 7-7 v RPI TOP 100, 16-4 v RPI 101+, 10-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 158, AVG RPI LOSS 73
• FLORIDA, 54 RPI, 33 SOS, 21-12 (9-7), 3-8 v RPI TOP 50, 8-10 v RPI TOP 100, 13-2 v RPI 101+, 8-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 155, AVG RPI LOSS 48
• SETON HALL, 61 RPI, 31 SOS, 19-12 (9-9), 4-9 v RPI TOP 50, 6-12 v RPI TOP 100, 13-0 v RPI 101+, 6-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 153, AVG RPI LOSS 29
• RHODE ISLAND, 40 RPI, 73 SOS, 23-9 (9-7), 1-5 v RPI TOP 50, 7-7 v RPI TOP 100, 16-2 v RPI 101+, 11-6 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 152, AVG RPI LOSS 61
• MISSISSIPPI, 62 RPI, 69 SOS, 21-10 (9-7), 2-6 v RPI TOP 50, 4-9 v RPI TOP 100, 18-2 v RPI 101+, 9-6 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 151, AVG RPI LOSS 40
I think we can cross out the last three teams in this group. Seton Hall had a good year against a tough schedule, but in the end, 6-12 against the top 100 isn't going to get it done. Rhode Island's one win against the top 50 won't cut it either, nor will Ole Miss' four wins against the top 100. So it's down to 5 teams for 2 bids.
Wake looks like it doesn't belong on the list with the other four, but the Demon Deacons were simply awful down the stretch, punctuated by an embarrassing blowout at the hands of 12-seed Miami (FL) in the ACC tournament's first round. Illinois got a much needed win against Wisconsin and took Ohio State to double overtime, but the Illini lost six of eight games to close the season. Virginia Tech went 10-6 in the ACC, but has nothing to show for its nonconference slate, and has an embarrassing average RPI win of 170. Mississippi State has a lot of bad losses, but put itself back into the discussion with a strong SEC tourney run capped by a brutal overtime loss against Kentucky. So who makes it?
It's an extremely tough call and I wouldn't really have any complaints about any pair from those five teams making it, but in the end I'll go with Florida and Wake Forest. The Gators had a decent nonconference output, played a tough schedule and split with Mississippi State in the head-to-head matchup. As difficult as it is to open the door for the Deacs with how bad they've been down the stretch, they simply have accomplished too much this season to banish them to the NIT.
As for the ones I left out, Illinois was the toughest not to include, since, as you'll recall, I had the Illini in the tournament yesterday. But they just had a few too many headscratching losses that nullified their big wins. Mississippi State has nobody to blame but itself if the Bulldogs don't get in. Losing to Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn just outweighs their two quality wins and today's strong performance against Kentucky. And Virginia Tech, to me, is this year's Penn State. The Hokies' 10-6 record in conference is big, but their schedule was just too weak to justify putting them in over Florida or Wake.
There it is! Less than a half-hour to go. I'll be back later, of course, with first reactions to the brackets. Enjoy the show everybody, we made it!
65-team field prediction
AQs: Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's (CA), Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Oakland, Robert Morris, Montana, Lehigh, Houston, Vermont, Morgan State, Sam Houston State, Kansas, Ohio, Washington, San Diego State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UC Santa Barbara, West Virginia, New Mexico State, Temple, Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State
At-larges: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, Utah State, California, Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest
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03-14-2010, 03:08 PM
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