Santa Anita showvivor March 2nd

[Dunbar]

I and the 10 others on Starry Skies survived. (finished 1st). 2 people got knocked out today, leaving 24.

If we could just split up the prize money, we each have over $200.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I and the 10 others on Starry Skies survived. (finished 1st). 2 people got knocked out today, leaving 24.

PLAYERS STILL IN: 25
PLAYERS OUT: 6546
TOTAL PLAYERS: 6571

I guess only one player was eliminated. That player picked the fav in the 11-horse 8th race. Probably looking for a big show payoff in case the tiebreaker kicks in, which is looking more and more likely.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Early pick for tomorrow is Royal Meridian in the 1st. A scratch in the 2nd or 7th could change things.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Early pick for tomorrow is Royal Meridian in the 1st. A scratch in the 2nd or 7th could change things.

Whew, came in 3rd. Don't know yet if it was close.

10 of us move on--I was surprised more people didn't choose the even money fav in the 5-horse 2nd or the fav in the 5-horse 7th:


10 people selected #02 Royal Meridian in race 1
5 people selected #02 Achilles in race 7
5 people selected #04 Valkyrie Missile in race 2
3 people selected #05 Position A in race 2
2 people selected #06 Big Tsimmis in race 6

--Dunbar

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Whew, came in 3rd. Don't know yet if it was close.

10 of us move on--I was surprised more people didn't choose the even money fav in the 5-horse 2nd or the fav in the 5-horse 7th:


10 people selected #02 Royal Meridian in race 1
5 people selected #02 Achilles in race 7
5 people selected #04 Valkyrie Missile in race 2
3 people selected #05 Position A in race 2
2 people selected #06 Big Tsimmis in race 6

--Dunbar

Great Dun, we all would love to see you at the wire prize in hand...good luck..

[Dunbar]

Thanks, bigrun. I'm glad you started this thread, which reminded me to enter!

5 people were knocked out today leaving:

PLAYERS STILL IN: 20
PLAYERS OUT: 6551
TOTAL PLAYERS: 6571
For tomorrow, Friday the 13th, I'm leaning toward the geezer in the 5-horse 2nd race, "R Vicarious Girl" . But also considering Ke Kekui in the 5-horse 1st and Tribal Dreams in the 5-horse 4th.

--Dunbar

[my miss storm cat]

I am SO happy you're still in!

Wow only 20 people left... you have a good chance of winning the whole damned thing. Hope you do!

Good luck tomorrow.

[Dunbar]

Thanks, mmsc. I wouldn't say "good chance", but 1-of-20 is definitely a lot better than 1-of-6000.

With 2 scratches from the 3rd, the first 4 races each have 5 horses. But I'm sticking with the geezer...er...cagey veteran in the 4th. (What's the female equiv to 'geezer'? geezess?)

--Dunbar

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Thanks, mmsc. I wouldn't say "good chance", but 1-of-20 is definitely a lot better than 1-of-6000.

With 2 scratches from the 3rd, the first 4 races each have 5 horses. But I'm sticking with the geezer...er...cagey veteran in the 4th. (What's the female equiv to 'geezer'? geezess?)

--Dunbar

geezette sounds about right....good luck on your quest Db....

[Dunbar]

Thanks, br. The geezette came through for me today. (won by 5 lengths!)

4 players were knocked out today leaving 16:

PLAYERS STILL IN: 16
PLAYERS OUT: 6555
TOTAL PLAYERS: 6571

For tomorrow, I'm leaning toward Wegner in the 4th, though taking one of the 2 favs in the 8th is tempting, too. And a scratch in the 1st or 3rd would make me look at those races again.

--Dunbar

[Arletta]

Brilliant run Dunbar.... Kick a.ss tomorrow

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

For tomorrow, I'm leaning toward Wegner in the 4th, though taking one of the 2 favs in the 8th is tempting, too. And a scratch in the 1st or 3rd would make me look at those races again.

Switched to Mizdirection in the 8th.

Originally Posted by Arletta

Brilliant run Dunbar.... Kick a.ss tomorrow

Thanks, Arletta! Fingers crossed that Mizdirection can at least beat one horse!

--Dunbar

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Switched to Mizdirection in the 8th.



Thanks, Arletta! Fingers crossed that Mizdirection can at least beat one horse!

--Dunbar

WTG...He beat them all....

[Dunbar]

Thanks, br.

One player was eliminated yesterday (4th by a sure-to-be-aggravating head), leaving 15 of us.

Today's Day 27! There are just 5 more days of the meet. My tiebreaker best-show-payoff isn't totally hopeless, but it's not all that huge either.

Was going to pass on Baffert's 1-1 fav in the 8th because I hate taking a horse that hasn't run in 6 months. But a scratch reduced the race to 4 horses, and Baffert HAS won 40% of his last 50 entries with more than a 180 day layoff, AND the horse has been working like gangbusters. If Contested finishes last and I'm eliminated, I'm guessing that at least 10 of the other 14 players will go out with me.

A smart play might be to pick another good horse today, like Palio Prince in the 3rd or Call Me Lucy in the 4th, hoping for Contested to lose and eliminate almost everyone. I've got 20 minutes to change my mind and do that!

--Dunbar

[my miss storm cat]

I've wanted to start a DUNBAR! thread in the pad lock for the past week but am so afraid that if I do it will jinx you my friend.

SO happy for you... keep going! You're amazing!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I've wanted to start a DUNBAR! thread in the pad lock for the past week but am so afraid that if I do it will jinx you my friend.

SO happy for you... keep going! You're amazing!

Ha! And I've been wearing the same shirt for the past 2 weeks! (just kidding!) And I'm afraid to stop using exclamation marks at the end of my sentences! ;>) !

Seriously, thanks a lot for the nice sentiments. (he dares to use a period...wonders whether a pair of exclamation points can make up for it!!)

I ended up staying with Contested today. Only one brave soul ventured away:

Top 15 ShowVivor Contest Favorites: Sunday April 15th

13 people selected #03 Contested in race 8
1 person selected #02 Dylan Donnelly in race 9
1 person selected #04 Tiz the Tide in race 8 (Tiz the Tide was scratched, so this pick will also be on Contested.)

So, after today we'll either have a single survivor, or 14 or 15 of us will still be around next Thursday for the stretch run.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Well, we held off the jinx for another day. Contested won the 8th with 5 lengths to spare. The lone wolf who picked the fav in the 9th also survived.

I appreciate all the fun support in this thread!

--Dunbar

[bigrun]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Well, we held off the jinx for another day. Contested won the 8th with 5 lengths to spare. The lone wolf who picked the fav in the 9th also survived.

I appreciate all the fun support in this thread!

--Dunbar

YEA!!

[Immanuel Kant]

Close it out strong Dunbar!

[Dunbar]

Thanks, guys.

I'm probably going to regret this, but at literally the last minute, 12:51 on the Showvivor clock (I thought it was supposed to cut off at 12:50!), I switched from Stormberg in the 2nd to Cheese Danish in the 5th. Hell, I already regret it.

We'll see.

Here are what people chose:

Top 15 ShowVivor Contest Favorites: Thursday April 19th

6 people selected #03 Stormberg in race 2
2 people selected #07 Courtside in race 7
2 people selected #03 Arinyes Love in race 5
2 people selected #01 Outperform in race 3
1 person selected #03 Saddleranch in race 7
1 person selected #07 H. J.'s Kitty in race 5
1 person selected #01 Cheese Danish in race 5

--Dunbar