Baymeadows, 2nd today

[westcoastinvader]

My first time wandering into this part of the board, so please forgive if I do not have the standard etiquette.....

I like Belknap in the 2nd at Baymeadows today.

Going for a $25,000 tag at a mile. I saw the horse at Del Mar in August, where he ran acceptably in $50,000 2 year old allowance races.

His last race up here a few weeks ago was in at $20,000 starter allowance in the slop at 6 furlongs. He was off slow, but finished strongly to catch 2nd.

I question the run for the tag, but he looked like he finished that last race in good order. He's been a mile once before at Del Mar in a race in a $56,000 allowance that was won by Malt Magic in a romp.

My morning paper said the ML odds were 6-1, but the Baymeadows online entry says 9/5.

I'm gonna go put $50 to win on him right now.

[westcoastinvader]

I hope no one else bet him!

That could be my last "prediction" here. I rarely miss that badly....

[paisjpq]

no worries...at least you tried...

[DerbyCat]

Today was a tough day to play Bay Meadows (I know, I lost a few $$$'s)... if you're playing the horse and not considering the jock, unfortunately you're going to lose some on days like today... Baze has been on fire (won 6 of 8 today)... I don't know if it's him just getting all of the good horses right now, or that he knows how to ride a muddy track at Bay Meadows better than anyone else, or if he know best how to ride around less experienced jockeys better than the others at BM (heaven knows he can't ride with the other jocks in the country) - when I look at the form I see that there are a lot of no-name jocks riding there right now - after watching replays from BM it looks like in some races, Baze just knows his horse and the course better than the rest. How many time have you watch Baze go right to the rail at the turn and then ride it to the lead? Happens all the time - how come the other jocks can't figure that out?

I love Bay Meadows but until Martinez gets back up to speed and Schvaneveldt, Alvarado, Gonzalez and Carr start riding like they're capable of, I'm not betting, cause Baze on a horse makes for really crappy odds.

Just my two cents

[westcoastinvader]

Derby Cat,


You likely may have seen the story already...(are you in Washington, or down here?) but Kyle Kaenel has been riding pretty well here of late.

His Dad is none other than "Cowboy Jack" Kaenel.

"Cowboy Jack" was the 16 year old jockey aboard Aloma's Ruler in the 1982 Preakness.

[PSH]

Betting on Baze consistently at No Cal is a license to lose $$$ given he is consistently on the favorite and often at odds on. Best angle is to look for value on horses he is not on...

PSH

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by PSH

Betting on Baze consistently at No Cal is a license to lose $$$ given he is consistently on the favorite and often at odds on. Best angle is to look for value on horses he is not on...

PSH

But I do love it when I cash a ticket on a horse that wins at 4-1 or higher, and Russell is the rider.

It happens a couple of times, just about every week.

I remember being at a track in South Florida and hearing some guys lament after a race...."these races are fixed!"

I suggested they handicap the possible "fix" in their future wagers.

That's a true story. The point is, when I play a Russell Baze race, I'm doing a handicapping angle on him....and his horse....and his trainer, too.

From a wagering standpoint, I actually love the fact that Russell being on a horse attracts the betting $$.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

no worries...at least you tried...

Thanks paisjpg.

That's a nice signature song, by the way. Unique. And good.

I heard in my mind that Belknap would win that 2nd race.

:-)

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

Derby Cat,


You likely may have seen the story already...(are you in Washington, or down here?) but Kyle Kaenel has been riding pretty well here of late.

His Dad is none other than "Cowboy Jack" Kaenel.

"Cowboy Jack" was the 16 year old jockey aboard Aloma's Ruler in the 1982 Preakness.

Kaenel HAS been riding well, I'm waiting to see who Miyadi settles on as "his" rider now that Martinez has returned... the Miyadi/Kaenel combo has been awesome but like betting Baze, it's hard to find good odds on them...

I moved from the Bay Area to Spokane 6 months ago and I really miss Bay Meadows... I'm coming down to the Bay Area next month to see my tax guy and I plan on being at Bay Meadows every day I'm down there

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by PSH

Betting on Baze consistently at No Cal is a license to lose $$$ given he is consistently on the favorite and often at odds on. Best angle is to look for value on horses he is not on...

PSH

Did you notice that when Baze was closing in on the record how EVERYONE was betting on him? There were some great payoffs on horses that were superior to the one Baze was on... that is indeed where the real value is, finding a horse with a lesser known jock who is the best in the field... unfortunately, too often Baze can still win on a crappy horse

[westcoastinvader]

I moved from the Bay Area to Spokane 6 months ago and I really miss Bay Meadows... I'm coming down to the Bay Area next month to see my tax guy and I plan on being at Bay Meadows every day I'm down there [/quote]


DerbyCat,

When you get down this way, let me know if you like. I live literally less than 5 minutes from the Pleasanton track, and hence normally go to the OTB when the bug bites......instead of crossing the San Mateo Bridge.

But, I do love Bay Meadows.

I had been to tracks all over the country, but the first time I walked into the betting area and realized the paddock was INDOORS and just steps from the betting area....I was sold on Bay Meadows.

My last trip across the Bay to Bay Meadows was the day Harry Aleo came into the paddock like a rock star......along with Lost in the Fog. THAT was a nice day.

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

When you get down this way, let me know if you like. I live literally less than 5 minutes from the Pleasanton track, and hence normally go to the OTB when the bug bites......instead of crossing the San Mateo Bridge.

I fly into San Jose on the 21st of March and am staying until the 25th... I plan on going to Bay Meadows Thursday through Sunday that week... will be in the Turf Club Friday night (I hate the drunken idiots over on the grandstand side that yell at the horses in the paddock on Fridays Alive nights... dollar days for college students is not something I want to deal with - wow, writing that makes me feel old ). Other than Friday, I tend to spend my time in a clubhouse box, I was fortunate the past couple years to get a good spot near the finish and I'm hoping the same usher is still working, she always took care of me I'll PM you before I head down there and hopefully we can meet up. I'll be the one wearing the DerbyTrail hat

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

I fly into San Jose on the 21st of March and am staying until the 25th... I'll PM you before I head down there and hopefully we can meet up. I'll be the one wearing the DerbyTrail hat

DerbyCat

Sounds like a plan! Right now, Thursday the 22nd looks like a good time for me, or possibly the 21st if your flight allows you to be at the track that day. I'm tentatively scheduled to be in Tucson the 24th and 25th, so the 23rd is up in the air.

I'm pretty certain Bay Meadows could hold a couple horse players on a Thursday afternoon!


I really get "the itch" to really be at the track at this time of the year!