Aqueduct Feb. 24th

[Holland Hacker]

After comments below this is what I'm playing. Thanks for the input.
Late Pick 4:

6th race - MSW NYB:
# 3 Send me a Sign
# 4 Twaummy

7th race - OC 30K / N2x NYB:
# 6 Brave Sir Robin
# 7 No Allegiance
# 1 Fifty Frame Thank you BTW!

8th Race - Rare Treat Handicap:
# 5 Dina
# 7 A Bit of Pressure

9th Race - Clm 12.5K:
# 1 Dual Jewels
# 3 Fire Hero
# 4 Lightning Stripes
# 6 Golder than Gold

$48 Pick 4

After losing the Pk 4 so early I played the remainder as a Pick 3 for $ 24 and it returned $137.75, would have preferred to of had the Pk 4.
Thanks for your insight & guidance BTW. Glad to see you Crushed the Pick 3.

Comments & Criticisms welcome!

R2 pick 4

4,5
all
1,6
1

$20

gl

Originally Posted by Supah Brother

R2 pick 4

4,5
all
1,6
1

$20

gl

that was a quick end

[Holland Hacker]

Played a last minute Early P4

2,6
ALL
1,8
2,4

Ouch. Sould have seen that coming, Where was the 4?
$40

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Late pk#4

6
3
2/7
6/3/4/2

$8 or $16...your choice

[blackthroatedwind]

Since criticisms are " welcome ".....how exactly does Freedom Ridge have any chance whatsoever in the 8th race?

A couple of other thoughts....the 7th race is a very difficult one but you might want to consider that with the late scratch of Southern Prince that Fifty Frame is very much the speed of the race. In the 6th race I think it is very important to see what kind of race Jet Racer runs in the 5th race as the big favorite, Dream Runner, exits his previous race and the fig may be a tad high. Returnee Send Me a Sign is getting an enormous trainer change and returns off the layoff as a new gelding. Unfortunately, however, the horse must also overcome Mike Smith ( no easy task ).

[Holland Hacker]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Since criticisms are " welcome ".....how exactly does Freedom Ridge have any chance whatsoever in the 8th race?

She is breaking from the rail which has been an advantage of late, seems to me to have enough speed to hold her position on the rail and finsihed 2nd in a simialr race last out. I'm not saying she is a lock but I think she has a shot.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A couple of other thoughts....the 7th race is a very difficult one but you might want to consider that with the late scratch of Southern Prince that Fifty Frame is very much the speed of the race.

Great point, I had over looked 50 frame, but am skeptical as he faultered going 5 1/2 and finished behind other runners in the field.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In the 6th race I think it is very important to see what kind of race Jet Racer runs in the 5th race as the big favorite, Dream Runner, exits his previous race and the fig may be a tad high.

I agree. I'll watch the race and reconsider using # 7 Dream Runner - What do you think about Twaummy, or am I reaching there?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Returnee Send Me a Sign is getting an enormous trainer change and returns off the layoff as a new gelding. Unfortunately, however, the horse must also overcome Mike Smith ( no easy task ).

You're correct Send Me a Sign did get a HUGE trainer switch, but does Shug usually have horses crnked up for their first start off of a layoff? I think he tends to be a bit more patient.

Thanks for the comments. Where else can you get insight from some of the bet cappers in the country.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Since criticisms are " welcome ".....how exactly does Freedom Ridge have any chance whatsoever in the 8th race?

A couple of other thoughts....the 7th race is a very difficult one but you might want to consider that with the late scratch of Southern Prince that Fifty Frame is very much the speed of the race. In the 6th race I think it is very important to see what kind of race Jet Racer runs in the 5th race as the big favorite, Dream Runner, exits his previous race and the fig may be a tad high. Returnee Send Me a Sign is getting an enormous trainer change and returns off the layoff as a new gelding. Unfortunately, however, the horse must also overcome Mike Smith ( no easy task ).

One I give no chance in the 8th is Daytime Promise,
who "hangs" more than a lamp shade!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

She is breaking from the rail which has been an advantage of late, seems to me to have enough speed to hold her position on the rail and finsihed 2nd in a simialr race last out. I'm not saying she is a lock but I think she has a shot.



Great point, I had over looked 50 frame, but am skeptical as he faultered going 5 1/2 and finished behind other runners in the field.



I agree. I'll watch the race and reconsider using # 7 Dream Runner - What do you think about Twaummy, or am I reaching there?



You're correct Send Me a Sign did get a HUGE trainer switch, but does Shug usually have horses crnked up for their first start off of a layoff? I think he tends to be a bit more patient.

Thanks for the comments. Where else can you get insight from some of the bet cappers in the country.

Now that Jet Racer did at least what I expected and ran like garbage, clever 4:5 shot, I would dramatically downgrade Dream Runner. As for Twaummy, I suppose he has a chance as it is obviously a terrible field, but I am adament about Send Me a Sign. Hopefully Mike Smith will use his one less than horrific ride for a horse owned by his agent's wife.

IMO, Freedom Ridge has close to no chance whatsoever. The last race she ran in was an extremely oddly run race to say the least and her previous " win " was an even more oddly run race. That day all the riders decided to do whatever was necessary to try and get to the front and rail and a crazy pace ensued. The third finisher made a premature and wide move and the second finisher was completely blocked and blind switched in the stretch and with anything close to a clean trip would have won. Niether of those horses have run well at all, against significantly weaker, in subsequent performances. Now, I am well aware this is a terrible field but Freedom Ridge is probably the worst horse in the race by a reasonable margin. Other than Amber Note, I would not be surprised, however, if anybody else wins.

[MisterB]

Buz Tenny has this horse tight, should walk away with this one. Mike S. he better not fall off

[blackthroatedwind]

Mike Smith just chooses not to give any horse he rides any chance whatsoever. He is so scared that he drops everything completely away from trouble and is pretty much always out of contention. The only way this horse can win is if Smith gets hurt or retires because he will otherwise always ride him.

The guy should retire before he hurts himself or someone else. It's sad.

[MisterB]

Why doesn't he carry a white flag, and just wave them by. This horse has been working lights out, bullets everywhere.

[Holland Hacker]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Why doesn't he carry a white flag, and just wave them by. This horse has been working lights out, bullets everywhere.

Probably should be a bright ORANGE flag like they use on construction sites. After all it is "safer"!

Now I see the justification for the betting angle "Mike Smith Off!"

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

Thanks BTW for pointing out that Fifty Frame was the clear speed.

You're very welcome.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

2 days in a row..btw gives up the wisdom........thanks again to you and steve...

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Does it get any more amusing than listening to Jan Rushton attempt to speak?

There are people that actually listen to her?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Does it get any more amusing than listening to Jan Rushton attempt to speak?

I mute her but I heard she said Kiaran thought the second winner ( won by the length of the stretch ) was a lumbering sort that would need one.

What a joke.

[randallscott35]

Gotta love Eddie Martin not riding out his 35-1 horse for second. Just sat there and thought he would hold second and lost the place. He should get days for that.

[blackthroatedwind]

I crushed the late Pick-3 at Aqueduct so I'm happy.....for a change.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Pick-3 ( and Pick-4 ) were very generous. The Pick-3 was well over twice the parlay. I made a big play on the 3 in the first leg, but very little Pick-4s, and then singled the 7th winner and pressed Dina. The finale looked like it had to collapse and the 1 and 4 seemed like the only two to me. I didn't understand why the 6 was getting bet. Those horses usually seem to beat me....but not today.