When weight is important!

With March looming large handicappers can use weight more now than any other time of year, as an integral part of their handicapping. This is especially so with allowance and stake caliber 3yo's.

As a bit of background, British sportsman Admiral John Rous created what is now the Jockey Club scale of weights. The purpose was to level the playing field because it was then common to run fillies against colts and horses of all ages, against one another. These weights featured a big spread early in the year, then narrowed as the year progressed taking normal thoroughbred maturation into account, as well as race distance.

For our purposes we concentrate on sophomores and use the tenet that 3yo's have trouble giving weight to other 3yo's, especially as distances increase. Many of these are not yet three by the calendar as most foals are born from Mid-February thru Mid- May. Several events vital to the tenet include the remarkable growth spurts 3yo's go thru, they are asked to run longer distances, and the most accomplished are given extra weight to carry.

As an example of extra weight carried, Gulfstream will run a couple of stakes Saturday; the Fountain Of Youth and Hutcheson. Both are for 3yo's, run at "lengthened" distances, and both assign weight on accomplishment. The former is being contested at nine furlongs (it was run at 8 and a half for over sixty years) and the weight is 122 pounds. However non-winners of 75K twice at a mile or over are allowed two pounds, 75K once at any distance 4lbs, and non winners of 40K at any distance or 24K twice, allowed six pounds. The Hutcheson weights are very similar but do not include any distance penalties. Over the last decade, the FOY has seen; Built For Pleasure beat Unbridled Song, Pulpit took the measure of Captain Bodgit, Lil's Lad dusted Coronado's Quest, Vicar smoked Cat Thief and ALL these winners got big weight concessions!

The tenet does not replace generally accorded handicapping principles such as, form, class, breeding, pace etc. but weight does take on added significance for three year olds, for the next sixty days or so. Conversely, most handicapping authors eschew weight in their books, and several handicapping icons reject the tenet entirely. Davidowitz offers that "weight is the most overrated factor in handicapping" and Beyer echoes that statement although conceding "old time horseplayers and trainers of every era swear by its importance". Over the course of the year both 'cappers are correct, but if there is an edge to be gained, it is with sophomores in the spring.

Using the 2006 Derby preps as a measuring stick does little to contradict the tenet, although last year their were three serious win machines. Brother Derek won four consecutive derby preps, Lawyer Ron toasted rivals in six consecutive races and the exceptional, yet ill-fated Barbaro won all six of his starts. Nevertheless there was money to be made as there always is with 3yo's in the spring. In the Gotham, LIKE NOW carrying 117 outgamed 17-10 favorite Keyed Entry (120) and returned $75. In the Tampa Bay Derby Deputy Glitters (116) beat forty cents on the dollar Bluegrass Cat (122) paying $19. In the Fountain of Youth Corinthian off at eight to one and getting four pounds from 7-10 favorite First Samurai beat him though was ultimately DQ'ed. The San Felipe (now the Bob Lewis) saw A. P. Warrior turn back even money Bob and John while getting three pounds and paying $17.

At first glance one could ask; "How can a thoroughbred weighing a half a ton be impacted by a few pounds or so? Following the Derby preps, and allowance races at seven furlongs or more restricted to 3yo's, over the spring, in any given year, will answer that question!

Perhaps the best quote on weight comes from top shelf DRF 'capper Dave "Lunchpail" Litfin who summed it up as follows; "The significance of weight is one of the most perplexing and controversial subjects in handicapping". A friend recalls his favorite comment, also from the DRF, regarding the 1967 Brooklyn Handicap where Handsome Boy smoked the talented Buckpasser. The latter toted 136 pounds giving Handsome Boy twenty pounds! The past performance comment "no excuse". BBB

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Dang man you wrote a chapter in a novel not a post, lmao

[cakes44]

You brought up 3 terrible examples from preps of last year.
In the Tampa Bay Derby, Deputy Glitters was a better horse AT TAMPA than Bluegrass Cat. He ran like 9 wide the entire race before that one(Sam Davis?) and still almost beat BC. IMO, weight made absolutely no difference in the outcome of the TBD.
In the Gotham, Keyed Entry was an unproven favorite, and has proven since that he had distance limitations and wants NO PART of route races.
As far as the FOY and First Samurai, see above about the Gotham.
Like I said, weight had no effect on the outcomes of these races IMHO.

[Thunder Gulch]

It's just so hard to handicap weight because it affects different animals to varying degrees. Without a way to quantify it or knowledge of how a horse performs with given weight assignments, I honestly don't give weight much thought. It has been proven time and time again that high-weight horses in handicaps win far more than the low- weight carriers.

[philcski]

Weight matters when I'm trying to decide between the Big Mac super-sized combo or the Caesar salad next door.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cakes44

You brought up 3 terrible examples from preps of last year.

I agree

[slotdirt]

Let me just go out on a limb here and say three pounds was not the reason Like Now beat Keyed Entry last year.

[AeWingnut]

There is something to weight but not too much. The reason many bug boys have such a high success rate is the weight allowance. Are they winning because they are lighter or because the trainer puts him up when the horse is ready and he wants every advantage. Weight allowance goes away and so do the mounts.

I believe that weight is more important on soft turf than it is on firm or fast dirt.

Another belief is that weight matters in longer races. I think it also matters in short races because you have less time to get the horse to relax. Ben told that weight makes it difficult to relax.

for some reason I have a song by White Lion stuck in my head

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

There is something to weight but not too much. The reason many bug boys have such a high success rate is the weight allowance. Are they winning because they are lighter or because the trainer puts him up when the horse is ready and he wants every advantage. Weight allowance goes away and so do the mounts.

I believe that weight is more important on soft turf than it is on firm or fast dirt.

Another belief is that weight matters in longer races. I think it also matters in short races because you have less time to get the horse to relax. Ben told that weight makes it difficult to relax.

for some reason I have a song by White Lion stuck in my head

If Weight matters how come the Fall High Weight Sprint held at the Big A each year has not shown any signifigant time difference from other sprint races of equal caliber horses?

If all horses are burdened with much more weight than normal shouldnt the race go in a much slower than normal time on all occasions?

The weight differences that makes up much of N. America racing is insignificant and has never been proven to mean anything. Many old time trainers, or some current ones too, believe it does. However a 1200 lb animal with weights evenly distributed on its saddle would not notice the weight differences.

Now if you strap ankle weights on the horse it might.

[Danzig]

knowing the amount of weight, and the amount being 'given' by the top weighted horses these days, i think it's a joke anymore. horses aren't loaded with weight anymore, and they aren't giving 20-30 lbs to their competitors.
i can think of four days a year that you'll see horses carry 126-other than that, forget it.
no such thing as a handicap any longer-they may as well make everything weight for age.

As a followup, my post was indeed induced by Hard Spun's loss in the Southwest. I read about 400 posts, stories and articles, both before and after the race and only one person mentioned the highweight (the venerable John Piesen). I would not blame weight for the loss, there were many other negatives, but as Piesen is aware sophomores giving weight is never good.

I acknowledge weight is a minute handicapping factor or perhaps even moot in most thoroughbred races. However you seldom see Friedman or Brown not mention it when they analyze a race. The works of Beyer, Quinn, Davidowitz etc. all briefly mention weight and largely downplay its significance, yet for 3yo's in the spring it is vital. If you watch the 3yo's over the next sixty days and take weight into account you will cash more tickets.

Cakes, Drugs, et. al.: The races I mentioned may be terrible examples but in each case the tenet held, as it has for decades.

S.T. et al: I do try to make my posts esoteric and provocative feeling if you are not doing something different... I wish I wrote better. Thanks for the kind words. BBB

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm not saying it has no effect, but I would argue that nobody knows how a particular animal will react to weight. I remember everyone talking about how War Emblem was picking up 14 lbs from the Illinois Derby to the KY Derby, yet it really didn't seem to bother him as I recall.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Trust me,weight matters a lot.I think it matters the least in the exact races where it is talked about the most(stakes races for older horses.)I think it matters the most with fillies,and especially cheap fillies(young or old.) As far as the 3 year old Triple Crown preps go,if the talent is there,the weight isn't getting them beat.Keyed Entry,and F. Samurai were not successful 2 turn horses,and BOB N JOHN was not that good to begin with.So,yes giving up weight could have helped get them beat.The less talented 3 year olds would be the ones who are bothered by it.In other words,I think weight would be more important in a grade 3 stakes for three year olds.I'll put in this way......If you gave P VAL the weight break that apprentices get,he would go absolutely on a tear.He wouldn't be taking extra time off etc.,because he would not want to miss out on all the wins he would be getting.Weight matters a lot in the day in/day out races with cheap filly maidens,and it matters a lot with cheap filly claimers (i.e. Antifreezette trying to get that extra half furlong.... etc.)

[jpops757]

Weight does matter but when I cap a race Iput so little importance on it I dont give it any consideration. After the race and I missed a nice shot Ilook back and something so simple as weight could have made a change in my pick and thus a winning ticket. While I still dont put weight high on my capping list , it does matter.