Gulfstream, 3-31

[golfer]

Florida Derby Day!!

Race 1: the 2 favorites, #3 Eye Catcher and #4 Maui, are both coming off OK turf races..Maui has a similar dirt number, Eye Catcher doesn't although he has only run on the dirt once. Problem is, there's not much else in here... #6 Zion Train, forward moving and stretching out.. and #1 El Rollo, gets the rail after being caught wide in last, but both might be Reaches? Leaning towards Maui, due to bug Alvarado.

Race 2: Interesting race due to #3 CP West, will take major action, but is off a long time, and not the fastest to begin with. The 2 fastest are #5 Fate takes a hand (although off only 1 race, and switching from Pletcher to Brothers) and #7 Frosty Secret, although he's showing a pattern of 0-2-? Interesting longshot may be #2 Forty Zip... last race at 2 was an 8, first 2 races at 3 weren't good, but can improve 3rd off layoff. #1 Gold Trippi comes in a bit slow, but very solid pattern.

Race 3: maiden race with a bunch of firsters, not my specialty.. but #8 Fun with Phil, comes back off the layoff with Lasix, debut number at Hawthorne was solid.. #5 Helsinki, 2nd start for Zito/Alvarado...does $193 ring a bell from last week?

Race 4: narrowed it down to 4 possible winners, not sure which I like best... best price is #2 Surprizer Phew, 6 year old ran solid in 1st US start a month ago, can improve...#3 Tissy Fit, cross entered tomorrow in a stakes race, looks strong... #4 Noble Deeds needs only slight forward move to get in picture, and #6 Mythical Conquest, 2 races this year at Gulf, 2 victories, no reason why it can't be 3 for 3.

Race 5: another interesting maiden race, this one without the firsters... key horse will be #2 Betterincludeme..ran a late closing 2nd on Golden rail/Pletcher day 4 Saturday's ago, stretches out, should either win for fun or be a MAJOR bet against..#5 Dr Googles Boogles, scratched from last Sat to run here, very dangerous...#6 Reata's Shadow, chased some good ones in first 2 starts, could easily move forward in this...and can't discount #7 Skypa, 2nd time Zito/Alvarado, nice spacing for this, didn't run badly 1st out.

Race 6: What to do with #1 Fearless Vision? his TG pattern is a very tricky read, debut 7, then a 2.5 (both losses), and breaks his maiden stretching out with a 7.75.. normally this pattern would not bode well today, but this horse gets the rail, and is FAST...#5 Pletcher's Soaring By, by this time we will see if this has become another Pletcher Stakes Day, this horse had MAJOR excuse in last at FG (breaking through the gate), distance is still a big ? #'s 6, 7 and 8, all come in a bit slower, but can potentially move forward at nice prices.

Race 7: this looks like #2 Safari Queen's race, fastest coming in, loves the distance...the other Pletcher, #4 Almonsoon, forward moving line with a big # on dirt from last year...#6 Time On, makes US debut off layoff for Clement, dangerous but would have to jump up to win this. #'s 1 and 3 could be used underneath at nice prices.

Race 8: #2 Green Vegas, very nice spacing, shortens up a bit, has best sprinting figs in the race...#3 Silver Source, ran huge in 1st start for Pilotti 5 weeks ago (former Canon horse), may react to that today... #7 Blue Bullet, has done nothing wrong for Jerkens in 2 starts, but comes in slower than the rest...#8 Street Magician, similar to Silver Source, fig in last was great, but may react to it...

Race 9: #3 Jambalaya is highweight, but gets good post, and is fastest at the distance coming in...#9 Hotstuf is fastest overall, but not at 1.5 miles, distance may be an issue, but could be the play if you get a square price...#7 Revved up is fast enough, but I have trouble playing horses this old (9)...#6 Interpatation is solid and consistent, #'s 10, 11 and 12 are all dangerous at big prices. (throw in #5 Ramazutti if this is looking like Pletcher Saturday, leave out if not).

Race 10: seems like a very competitive race, #3 AP Arrow, looks strong off paired TG zero's... however, #7 Dry Martini is coming off neg1 with trouble, also has zero 3 back and gets weight...#1 Political Force comes in a bit slower than top 2, but gets the rail and can improve.. interesting longshot may be #2 Touched by Madness, thought this was a turf specialist, but last 2 on dirt were both TG 1's, another one puts him right there.

Race 11: The FL Derby.. #1 Notional, gets the rail, has great TG pattern, should be tough... #4 Adore the Gold, may be the horse to beat... #6 Chelokee seems like the wiseguy play..#9 Birdbird also has a great TG pattern, late closer should run well today. Taking a stand against Scat Daddy and Stormello, as well as Boogie Boggs.

Race 12: nothing like closing out the card with a contentious 5 furlong turf race... #2 Mohegan Sky, solid forward moving pattern.. #10 Flying Circle, should run well, is fastest coming in, but highweight and outside post may mitigate that some.. #9 Saoirse Cat is solid, but has yet to break thru TG top of 7, which she has run 3 times... longshot alerts for #3 A Sea Trippi, very fast on dirt last year as a 3year old, 1st 2 at 4 not so good on dirt, if she takes to the turf could be dangerous.. #5 Silversider, getting weight due to Alvarado, nice spacing, could surprise.

As Always, good luck to all!