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#1
04-14-2007, 01:21 PM
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NTRA Pick 4 scope
Saturday, April 16, 2007 Stakes Preview (NTRA Pick 4)
Leg A (KEE 8): 21st Running of THE COMMONWEALTH BREEDERS' CUP (Grade II), $400,000 For Three Year Olds And Upward, 7 Furlongs on the POLYTRACK (1) BUDDY GOT EVEN (Maker/Velasquez) 15-1 Lightly-raced five-year-old makes his living jogging early and sprinting late, and it paid off for him in a three-length score at 9-1 two back at 6 1/2 panels on the TP strip in the $50,000 Forego. Last time out, he tried two turns, and he was closing late, but just didn't have the same punch, so now Stan Fulton and Becky Maker smartly wind him back around one bend. The frontrunners have been dying in the final furlong in many KEE races early on, so his style, plus the rail draw, could be very beneficial in this spot. Nonetheless, his top figure of 93 leaves a bit to be desired, so he'll have to produce a career-best effort to get his hoof raised. Perfect in two starts on the local surface, and the distance should be right up his alley. Not out of the question at a price, especially if the track is playing to closers. (2) RIVER CITY REBEL (Hushion/Leparoux) 15-1 Son of Sahm has shown intermittent flashes of big talent, but he really broke through in his last start, blowing away $50,000/N2X optionals by 6 going six panels on the AQU inner and earning a big figure of 102 for his trouble. That was doubly impressive considering that it came off nearly five months on the bench. Hushion apparently has no qualms about shipping in, and he enlists the services of one of the tracks shrewdest riders. It's worth mentioning for sure that this gelding ran his last eighth in :11 3/5 last out, which is something one usually only sees on polytrack or turf, so his late kick should fit just fine in Sexy Lexy. Never tried seven furlongs, but ran well in a one-turn mile at BEL last summer, so he isn't totally out of his element today. Two swift local breezes. Leparoux don't ride no fool. (3) STRAIGHT LINE - Scratched (4) STEEL LIGHT (Clement/Gomez) 6-1 Chestnut six-year-old turned into a real useful turf runner late in '05, winning the G2 Nearctic at WO, but something went awry later on, and he had to be shelfed for over 16 months. Finally made his comeback in the G3 Appleton at GP last out, and ran a bang-up race, finishing a narrow second despite having traffic trouble on the far turn. He certainly fits figure-wise, but this thing is on dirt (or something similar), a surface he's unproven on. Note that when Gomez mounts Clement horses at KEE, the two usually have big success (5-for-9 recently), and there's certainly some precedent for turf-to-synthetic excellence. Love the fact that he hasn't been beaten more than 2 1/4 in seven North American starts, says if he handles the surface, he'll run his race. Wouldn't toss. (5) RAMSGATE (Frankel/Flores) 6-1 Reeled off three straight victories on HOL synthetic, then jumped up to run a surprising third at 17-1 in G2 San Carlos at SA last out. He's been off since then, but has been working up a storm, including a local minute breeze on Monday. Flores is in for the ride and this is his only mount of the day, so he probably didn't take the trip for the frequent flyer miles. Versatility noted, and it's tough to ignore a 3-for-3 on synthetic surfaces runner. Don't think this race came up quite as tough as the San Carlos, either. Another contender. (6) RYAN'S FOR REAL (Alecci/Panell) 12-1 MD runner has gotten better and better since slick $25,000 claim by connections, and most recently ran third at 9-1 in the G2 General George BC at LRL, then won a mile optional claimer in the slop at LRL last out. Tough to knock a horse who's in such great shape, but to be fair, he probably wasn't facing much of anything last time, and he appeared to benefit in the General George from leading through a slow opening quarter. While he doesn't have to be on the lead, it seems like he does his best running near the front, and not sure that's conducive to success on this track, especially with plenty of good closers ready to pounce. Logical, but value lies elsewhere. (7) MIDNIGHT LUTE (Baffert/Prado) 3-1 Real Quiet colt made some noise with his airing in the G3 Perryville at this track and distance (about) last fall, and he's done nothing but improve since, closing to run a big third in the G1 Malibu, narrowly missing around two turns in the G2 San Fernando BC and running fourth in the G2 Strub. Now he steps up to face elders for the first time, but it wasn't exactly like he was facing weak three- and four-year-olds in the Strub series, and he peels back around one turn, which is where he seems to have more of a get-up. Tough to be all that thrilled that Espinoza isn't aboard, but Prado isn't a bad replacement, and this dude's style suits this track and race like a glove. Looks like the one to beat. (8) SILENT NAME (Mandella/Nakatani) 4-1 Turf miler was last seen just missing in the G1 Frank Kilroe on the SA lawn, and now he'll try the synthetic stuff for the first time, although he's trained on it for a while. Very possible that Mandella is switching him to a surface he's taken a liking to in the mornings, but this seems more like a spaghetti-against-the-wall move. Does best running near the front, and probably will be a shorter price than warranted. Taking a stand against. (9) DEEP CANYON (Wilkes/Borel) 20-1 Chester House son won on this surface at this distance last fall, but that was a much softer spot than this one. To his credit, he ran a big second against high-priced optionals at CD a race later with an impressive burst on the turn. Return race was lousy, but he had trouble, and he's been working well since. Should be ready for his best, and he's shown a strong kick, but this is probably the best field he's ever faced. Prefer others. (10) GIN AND SIN (Miller/Bejarano) 20-1 Veteran gelding took a N1Y/$80,000 optional claimer at this track and trip last fall, but earned a relatively slow figure of 91 in doing so, and even with 40 races under the belt, he still has never cracked 100 on the BSF scale. Local works can't hurt, but this is a tall order. Slice at best. (11) LEWIS MICHAEL (Catalano/Douglas) 10-1 It would be nice if these connections could figure out what they wanted to do with this horse. Long on turf, long on dirt, short on dirt, short on turf, back to short on dirt. Rahy's son must have his head spinning right now. Has always seemed to be a cut below his competition, and even though it's interesting that he was in hand late in a close turf run, it'll probably be the same story again in here. (12) HIGH FINANCE (Violette/Castellano) 8-1 Talk Is Money colt has always been a quick sucker, running a big 108 figure in an N2X win at SAR last summer, but he never has seemed to run those big races against the big horses, finishing tenth in the G1 BEL, fourth in the Perryville, second in the G3 Mr. Prospector and fourth in the G3 Deputy Minister. Violette may well have booted Bejarano off for Castellano, but not crazy about Rafi ending up elsewhere, and the 12-hole doesn't exactly get the pulse racing. Will probably have to be used early on a bit too much as well. Certainly could win this, but there's much better value in other places. 2 - RIVER CITY REBEL Leparoux doesn't ride lames at KEE, gelding closed fast off the bench 7 - MIDNIGHT LUTE Would feel better if Espinoza was aboard, but still the horse to beat 5 - RAMSGATE Perfect on fake stuff, Flores in for mount, strong kick 4 - STEEL LIGHT Turfer ran big in return, scary if he takes to polytrack Leg B (KEE 9): 83rd Running of THE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (Grade I), $750,000 for Three Year Olds, 1 1/8 Miles on the POLYTRACK (1) ZANJERO (Asmussen/Gomez) 8-1 Pricey yearling buy came on well in the fall, winning an N1X at CD at 8-1 and running second to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the G2 Remsen. He picked up right where he left off at the beginning of this season, running third with a poorly timed ride in the G3 Risen Star, then closing to be third in the G2 LA Derby. Now he makes his third start off the winter break, and needn't improve too much off his top figure of 93 to matter in here. Scored by a neck in his lone start over this surface, and he's been working locally for the last few weeks. The extra 1/16 should only help him, but with all of that said, this is a bit of a class hike and he'll have to hope for some quick early splits. Rail draw certainly doesn't hurt. Needs a bit of a jolt to contend for the win, but it's certainly plausible that he clunks up for second or third at a decent number. (2) DOMINICAN (Miller/Bejarano) 10-1 Surprised a few by running third at 30-1 in last fall's G2 KY Jockey Club, then surprised in his return only in how easily he won, rolling by 5 in the $100,000 Rushaway at TP. Lone try at KEE was a win, but not a particularly quick one, although he was racing against the grain on the lead. Tactical speed should serve him well, and he doesn't need a big figure jump from his 95 in the Rushaway to contend in here. Intriguing alternative to the favorites. (3) LOVE DUBAI (Maker/Mena) 30-1 Ran on the synthetic stuff a bunch in England, winning a few route races in the process, so distance won't be a problem, but quickness might be. Loosely translated, his highest BSF in England was an 80 on grass, and a 70 on the dirt. His non-effort in the G2 IL Derby doesn't inspire much confidence, either. First-time Lasix probably will help, but not enough. Pass. (continued..) 
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#2
04-14-2007, 01:21 PM
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(4) STREET SENSE (Nafzger/Borel) 4-5
Last year's BC Juvy winner and this year's early favorite for the KY Derby finally made his three-year-old debut in the Mar. 17 G3 Tampa Bay Derby, closing from off the pace to score a game nose victory over Any Given Saturday in a thrilling race. He's been working well since, but not sure there's that much improvement coming off that last effort. Didn't have much issue with KEE polytrack when third at 11-1 in last fall's G1 Breeders' Futurity, but knowing Nafzger, a win in here probably isn't as important as a workout, and that's always a red flag on a 4/5 shot. That's not to say that he won't win, because he's certainly a professional racehorse with a strong closing kick, but he's not unbeatable by any means. (5) TIME SQUARED (Biancone/Leparoux) 30-1 NY-bred bounces back on just eight days' rest after local win, in which he didn't earn a big figure (67), but impressively closed behind a molasses pace, running his final 5/16 in :29 2/5. He should be closing again today if a pace duel materializes, but this is a serious step up in class for the Fusaichi Pegasus colt. Underneath at best. (6) TEUFLESBERG (Sanders/Prado) 10-1 Heavily-raced son of Johannesburg was purchased as a yearling for $9,000, and has certainly proved to be a bargain, banking $347,931 so far. Speedy colt draws a field without much early foot, and he ran big two back on the front end, scoring at 23-1 in the $250,000 Southwest at OP. Last time out, he wasn't ready for the break, and couldn't get to the front, yet still ran on well to be third behind impressive winner Curlin, who goes as the favorite in today's G2 AR Derby. He's got a tendency to be clumsy out of the gate, and with today's hurdles, he's going to need a sharp break. Certainly not impossible, but thinking he'll get a little wobbly late. (7) GREAT HUNTER (O'Neill/Nakatani) 9-5 Reddam colt won the Breeders' Futurity over Street Sense last fall, but then was handled, just as everyone else was, by that colt in the BC Juvy. After that came a long break for this son of Aptitude, from which he came back quite nicely to grab the G2 Robert and Beverly Lewis at SA. Not sure how much he beat that day, considering Sam P. came back to tap out in the G1 SA Derby last week, but the fact that the 'Hunter did it off amount four months on the pine was impressive. Not exactly enthused that O'Neill's other big sophomores, Liquidity and Cobalt Blue, did nothing whatsoever last week, and now this guy is asked to ship across country and take on a horse that ran circles around him last time they met. Contender for sure, but may be overbet. 4 - STREET SENSE Clearly the horse to beat, not a lock 7 - GREAT HUNTER Not quite sure what to make of last win, has had polytrack success 2 - DOMINICAN Could get first jump on the two chalks 6 - TEUFLESBERG With a clean break, he could hold on for longer than most think Leg C (OP 10): 5th Running of THE INSTANT RACING BREEDERS' CUP, $100,000 For Fillies, Three Year Olds, 1 Mile on the DIRT (1) CHAMPAGNE SUE (Flint/Baze) 20-1 Didn't do a ton of running in KEE debut last fall, but certainly came back running locally Mar. 24, cruising by 2 1/2 in a six-panel sprint. She came home in :13+, but that'll happen when you're a length back of a :21 3/5 quarter mile, and if nothing else, the race gave her a good foundation for a step forward. Draws the rail and tries two turns for the first time in here. Bred decently to be a miler, being by Elusive Quality, however, most of her siblings were better sprinting than routing, and considering this lady's speed, that may be the case with her as well. Consider. (2) RITA KATRINA - Scratched (3) HART'S SUNSET (Schultz/Quinonez) 8-1 Flew late to get second at 16-1 in the $45,000 Houston Oaks two back, then scored in the mud at HOU last out as the even-money chalk. She needs to raise her game a bit to compete with these, as her top effort to date might not get it done. At least we know she can get the distance, and if she gets some pace, she'll be flying late again. (4) STELLAS NEW GROOVE (Ritter/Razo) 10-1 Stepped up in class in the $100,000 Honeybee last out, and while she didn't make a huge impact, she certainly wasn't embarrassed by some serious fillies, running fourth at 24-1. Like the tactical speed she showed in there, and now she's had time to regroup for her next shot at a two-turn stake. Dangerous. (5) NICE INHERITANCE (Asmussen/Albarado) 8-1 Reeled off three in a row, including an impressive win in the $50,000 Island Fashion at SUN before throwing in a perplexing stinker in the $200,000 WinStar Oaks. If she can bounce back from that weak effort, she could be mighty dangerous, especially if a pace duel manifests in front of her. Needs things to fall her way. (6) WELLOFAPRIZE (Pletcher/Velazquez) 12-1 Pure Prize girl ran well on polytrack last fall, lit up the tote in a 52-1 win at KEE, then didn't do much running in the G2 Golden Rod, and perhaps it was a bit too much too soon for her. She joined Pletcher's barn over the winter, has been working beautifully, and now Johnny V. sees fit to ride. Another one that would benefit from some pace up front. Scary on barn switch alone. (7) NEW EDITION (Jones/Thompson) 5-1 Certainly has proven her merit around one turn, romping by 4 1/2 in a local N2L two back, but she faded in a slightly tougher spot last out, and her two-turn tries haven't been stellar. But perhaps she's just turned the corner, and is ready to carry her speed a mile. Short stretch should help her hold off the closers. Interesting. (8) ANGEL SMOKE (Robertson/Martinez) 3-1 Smoke Glacken daughter has done nothing but get better and better, narrowly missing against return winner Moon Catcher two back, then dusting some optional claimers last out going 1/16 further. Now she gets the acid test, but her figures certainly put her in business, and gotta love the tactical speed. Long run into the turn should keep her from getting hung too wide around the first bend. Major player. (9) CREAM ONLY (Asmussen/Doocy) 6-1 Didn't get the best of trips in FG N1X last out, but still ran a narrow third, and Exchange Rate gray has been working well for this. Thinking that Albarado had his choice of the two Asmussens though, and he took the other filly. Tactical speed a plus, as this race doesn't seem to set up for a closer, but does seem to be a stalker's paradise. Tough on her best, but might be a cut below the top fillies. (10) CHATHAM (Stewart/Desormeaux) 9-2 Overbrook bay had been sprinting decently at FG, but really broke through last time out, scoring by a neck at 7-1 while seemingly tiring late. Perhaps Albarado thinks she can't go two bends and plops down elsewhere. A little interesting, but think the class rise and the stretchout, combined, will do her in. 8 - ANGEL SMOKE Steps up in class, but possesses good tactical speed and strong kick 6 - WELLOFAPRIZE First-time Pletcher angle noted, been blowing bullets and lures Velazquez 4 - STELLAS NEW GROOVE Got her education in Honeybee, should be better for it 7 - NEW EDITION May have turned the corner, but probably a little better around one turn (continued again..)
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#3
04-14-2007, 01:22 PM
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Leg D (OP 11): 71st Running of THE ARKANSAS DERBY (Grade II), $1,000,000 For Three Year Olds. 1 1/8 Miles on the DIRT
(1) DELIGHTFUL KISS (Anderson/Baze) 10-1 Deep closer should appreciate his first start at nine panels on the dirt, having closed to be third at 20-1 last out in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby. Before that, he pulled off a 23-1 upset in a mile N1X at GP. He really has come alive as a three-year-old, and he's worked like nothing bothered him since the TB Derby. Pretty much always runs his race, and if a speed duel comes together, he could be looming at a big price. (2) CURLIN (Asmussen/Albarado) 7-5 This guy could be REALLY good. Simply ran over his foes at GP in seven-furlong debut, scoring by 12 3/4, then stepped into graded stakes company and stretched out to two turns in just his second start, which was no problem either. He relaxed off the pace, then blew by everyone to score by 5 1/4. Since then, he's worked well twice at KEE and gone an easy half on Monday. Now he draws closer inside, and will have to deal with getting some dirt in his face early. Nothing's seemed to bother him thus far, so who's to say that the inside post will give him fits? Other connections not afraid, as nine others entered. Gets his major test before a possible start in the Derby. (3) OFFICER ROCKET (Holthus/Quinonez) 6-1 Officer chestnut showed some real promise at two, and showed signs of improving at three when running second at 12-1 in the $250,000 Southwest, but regressed when getting smacked silly by Curlin in the G3 Rebel. Quite possible that Quinonez moved a bit too soon, but still don't think he was catching Curlin. Capable of bouncing back, but if Curlin's on his game, the Rocket might be in the pocket late. (4) GOING BALLISTIC (Von Hemel/Berry) 12-1 Started twice at three, and been beaten by Officer Rocket handily a few times, although he did manage to run fourth at 18-1 last out when compromised by a wide post. Gets the length of the stretch to run down the speed today, but like many others, his best might be a bit short if the big guns are blazing. Underneath. (5) FLYING FIRST CLASS (Lukas/Thompson) 8-1 Perfect Mandate colt ran out of his mind two back, blowing away maidens by 8 and earning a gargantuan figure of 107 for his work. Then he stretched around two turns, tracked a ho-hum pace, and folded to finish eighth as the 9/5 chalk in the G3 Rebel. One thing he's got working for him is there isn't a ton of speed signed on in here, so he could have his way on the lead. Prado doesn't see fit to take the flight in, instead staying at KEE. Think he improves, but still comes up short in the final furlong. (6) STORM IN MAY (Kaplan/Leyva) 15-1 Gray colt upset the $250,000 Sunshine Millions Dash at 26-1 three back, then steadied on the turn and finished sixth in the G2 Hutcheson at GP. Hopped on the grass and ran third in the G3 Palm Beach, now returns to dirt, and turf-to-dirt produced his best effort to date. Not sure routing on the dirt is his thing, but not sure that it isn't, either. Tricky read. (7) OLYMPIC CHIEF (Davidson/Kato) 50-1 Probably a pretty nice horse, but this is a tall order for a first-time starter. Can't quite remember the last time a debuter popped up in a $1,000,000 race. To be fair, he's decently-bred and he's bred to love the slop, which could help him out with rains forecast for Friday and Saturday. Dam was unraced, lone sibling to race went 24/3-5-3, banked $42,876, but earned a top figure of just 62. Can't see how. (8) SLEW BY SLEW (Von Hemel/Pettinger) 20-1 Second Von Hemel trainee comes into this off a solid N3L win in the slop locally going 8 1/2 furlongs, so the elements shouldn't faze him today. The competition might though, as this is a much better field than the last group he faced, and his top figure of 87 leaves much to be desired. Pass. (9) FOR YOU REPPO - Scratched (10) DEADLY DEALER (Pletcher/Velazquez) 4-1 Concerto bay certainly impressed in his first start for Pletcher last out, setting a pretty quick clip, yet pulling away to win by 7 going 7 1/2 panels at GP. Now he stretches out to two turns, and draws a field that doesn't have a ton of early gas signed up. If he can shake off Flying First Class, he could be plenty tough to run down. Most recent figure of 104 makes him darn scary, and Velazquez coming in for the ride only helps his case. Like that they've given him a lot of time to recover from that last race, and he's got four solid breezes for foundation. Dam was a sprinter, but that doesn't mean this dude can't route. Scary. 2 - CURLIN Looked super in Rebel, another 1/16 can only help him, should save ground 10 - DEADLY DEALER Sharp as a razor at GP, gets the two-turn test, Velazquez in to ride 3 - OFFICER ROCKET Moved early last time out, should sit the trip 1 - DELIGHTFUL KISS Capable of sharing if speed duel comes to be PICK FOUR TICKET: 2,5,7 / 4,7 / 4,6,8 / 2, $18 for every $1. Good luck everyone!
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#4
04-14-2007, 02:30 PM
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