Deja Vu all over again?

[JJP]

This Triple Crown reminds me a lot of 1990.

In 1990, Nafzger had a solid contender in Unbridled who lost his final prep in the Blue Grass when he was compromised by a slow pace (and a rail bias that he tried to rally wide against) while Summer Squall was the beneficiary of the pace and bias and won. When the horses got to the Derby, there was plenty of speed; Summer Squall tried to rate but ended up moving a bit too soon and was just inhaled in the stretch by Unbridled. Summer Squall actually ran a pretty good race to finish 2nd; arguably he expended the most energy. Two weeks later in the Preakness, many of the speedballs from the Derby didn't enter; the pace was slower and Summer Squall beat a wide rallying Unbridled fairly convincingly.

Fast forward 17 years. Once again, Nafzger has a top contender who is a stretch runner who was compromised by the lack of pace in the Blue Grass. But when the field lined up for the Derby, they went :46 1/5 and the sizzling pace (as well as Borel's ride) was the equation for Street Sense's perfect trip, while Hard Spun ran a big race to run second. When they get to Pimlico, this has the feel of the Unbridled vs Summer Squall rivalry, and the challenger may get the best of the champ.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Hard Spun will be off of the board (top three) in the Preakness. He will not go forward or even pair-up. He has to go backward at some time. Why not wager that he will go backward on two weeks rest at short odds?

I agree that Hard Spun seems more set up to take a step backwards than Street Sense, I'm not prepared to say he will be off the board, at least until I see the entries but I will be greatly surprised if Hard Spun wins the Preakness.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Hard Spun will be off of the board (top three) in the Preakness. He will not go forward or even pair-up. He has to go backward at some time. Why not wager that he will go backward on two weeks rest at short odds?

You are assuming a bounce. 3YOs don't bounce as frequently as older horses do. I have to agree w/BTW in his take on bounces. My only concern would be a bunch of new faces who are early speedsters.

[ALostTexan]

Any idea of the new faces? I cannot see Chelokee or Xchanger making a big impact, and there is nothing out there like Bernardini this year...

ALostTexan