Street Sense, Hard Spun face off on the Polytrack

[MisterB]

I think you can toss a coin here. Spun likes the stuff, and for Sense- not the best of surfaces.

The card looks real good though.

I think this will be a great race because Hard Spun actually has a chance to win. The polytrack is definitely in his favor like you said and it is also at 9f which will help some. I am hoping that Hard Spun is around 5/2 3/1 because I will be taking those odds.

[Ronnie]

Any thoughts on why this race was the race chosen for Street Sense?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

Any thoughts on why this race was the race chosen for Street Sense?

his poly to dirt angle is good, and of course he's already beaten hard spun twice....nafzger feels he has the top 3 yo colt, and he's treating him as such. certainly no reason for him to duck any horse. plus nafzger likes the fact of very little shipping needed.

he may not have won on poly, but his starts on dirt just after a poly race were the bcj and the ky derby.

[sumitas]

Why ? It had to be because it'd s kinder surface to him physically/ With all this talk about poly being a closer's surface why does the front runner Hard Spun loom large here ?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Why ? It had to be because it'd s kinder surface to him physically/ With all this talk about poly being a closer's surface why does the front runner Hard Spun loom large here ?

i didn't know poly was supposed to only favor closers...didn't seem the case when hard spun won on it in the spring.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Nope. Nafzger said a month ago he wanted a race against elders, and on this weekend. He had three options, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hawthorne Gold Cup and this race. From what I have read this race was chosen because, like Danzig said he doesn't have to ship far and without a doubt his 2 best races came after a prep on poly.

I am a big Street Sense guy, but Hard Spun is who I would play here. Street Sense's 2 races on the poly were IMO not his best. Hard Spun ran very well at Turfway last March, arguably his best race and might prove too tough for SS to catch.

yep I agree, it will be a very interesting race because Hard Spun could take it. Its not so easy to close into a horse with his kind of speed at Turfway. I don't know who else is in this race but lookout if Hard Spun gets sent out on an easy lead. also I like that he's coming out of a fast paced race whereas Street Sense is coming out of more leisurely paced affairs. It will be interesting to see how the betting goes.

[miraja2]

I think it will be very interesting to see what the post-time odds are on these two for this race.
I could see a lot of people relying too much on the, "Hard Spun likes poly and Street Sense does not" angle. They might overlook the sometimes important, "Street Sense is a better horse" angle.
On the other hand, people might not pay enough attention to the fact that while Street Sense should be (and would be) a huge favorite over Hard Spun at 10f on the dirt, this race isn't being run under those conditions.
I suppose some of it will hinge on how the other horses in the race will affect the pace scenario, but as of right now, I really have no idea how the odds will look for the "big two" at post time.

[letswastemoney]

I don't believe that Street Sense is better on poly until he proves it.

[letswastemoney]

and there's no question Street Sense will be the favorite. Kentucky Derby/ BC Juvenile / Travers champion = favorite. A lot of casual bettors will have him on top just on the Street Sense name alone.

[lemoncrush]

It was tough to make sense of the Bluegrass Stakes on polytrack last April, and SS did run well last Fall at the BCJ prep at Keenland, so I wouldn't really suggest he doesn't like the surface.

Hard Spun does fit well here, but does anyone thinks he will regress after the balls out effort he gave Vs. First Defence in the Kings Bishop?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i didn't know poly was supposed to only favor closers...didn't seem the case when hard spun won on it in the spring.

There were about 4 mules, 3 donkeys, and 3 slugs in the field along with Hard Spun...if memory serves.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There were about 4 mules, 3 donkeys, and 3 slugs in the field along with Hard Spun...if memory serves.

but which of those were the closers this track was supposed to favor??

[NTamm1215]

I will say, first off, that I literally pay attention to Turfway twice yearly, so my comments may be way off, that's why I'd like other opinions. But, all I can recall from last year's Ky Cup and this year's Lane's End card was that speed was golden. I don't recall any winners from off the pace.

Am I completely wrong?

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

How do you think Borel will ride Street Sense?

Is he going to stay outside, and near the front, so he doesn't eat that kickback?
If he doesn't, does he have a chance to win? If he does, is that the form they want to carry to the BC?

[sumitas]

it seems to me the poly bashers always complain that poly kills speed and favors closers, regardless of the track. are we seeing a shift away from that position by the poly bashers ?

[boswd]

Just judging by the way Nafger has talked, it's like he is conceding defeat already by choosing to run on Poly. He's basically saying history with Street sense on having his last two prep races on Poly in which he lost resulted in major vicotories his next time out, BC Juv. and Ky Derby. It's like he is have a full scale workout and if he wins, great , if not, than who cares just wanted to get a solid run in him over a surface that is supposed to be kind to the horses and then go from there.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by sumitas

it seems to me the poly bashers always complain that poly kills speed and favors closers, regardless of the track. are we seeing a shift away from that position by the poly bashers ?

Come on man.
Not EVERY closer in the world ALWAYS is going to benefit from EVERY synthetic surface.
SOME synthetic surfaces tend to favor SOME closers (at least more than dirt).
Street Sense seems to be a closer that does not like poly. It happens. That doesn't mean that everybody needs to change whatever their opinion is on synthetic surfaces.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Come on man.
Not EVERY closer in the world ALWAYS is going to benefit from EVERY synthetic surface.
SOME synthetic surfaces tend to favor SOME closers (at least more than dirt).
Street Sense seems to be a closer that does not like poly. It happens. That doesn't mean that everybody needs to change whatever their opinion is on synthetic surfaces.

With all due respect and this isn't just to you, I feel it's absolute bunk to think Street Sense doesn't like poly but I hear it all over the place--I think Bloodhorse might've run something by Haskin or whoever countermanding that which was good. Go back and watch the Blue Grass and smoke over his action which I think was nice and easy. Sure looked like he liked it just fine to me. Notice where he's running--the outside. I'd say his nose loss wasn't even due to that though, it was a headbob situation but SS was most certainly pushing with greater and greater thrust toward the end of the race and we all know he's lengths better on the rail. I saw no wheel spinning and a determined forward effort that's despite the blanket mess that was the oncoming rush at the end there. Great Hunter didn't end up with the best result and SS definitely had his bobbly moments but that was traffic squirreliness, not the track. He overcame and nearly won. I'm not sure the result would've been much different on dirt with all other things being equal. It sets him up well later too. A good spot.

I'm gonna go back and watch the other race but I came out of watching the Blue Grass impressed with him doing what he did not 'wow he hates poly...totally gonna throw that out.' I'd like to hear what Carl and Calvin say about him so I can be sure my thoughts are right but I think he'll have much more trouble with his hanging habit and outside running than the track surface. Now if Hard Spun does like they did in the BG and slows the first quarter to :26 who knows. SS still closed well into that.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

With all due respect and this isn't just to you, I feel it's absolute bunk to think Street Sense doesn't like poly but I hear it all over the place--I think Bloodhorse might've run something by Haskin or whoever countermanding that which was good. Go back and watch the Blue Grass and smoke over his action which I think was nice and easy. Sure looked like he liked it just fine to me. Notice where he's running--the outside. I'd say his nose loss wasn't even due to that though, it was a headbob situation but SS was most certainly pushing with greater and greater thrust toward the end of the race and we all know he's lengths better on the rail. I saw no wheel spinning and a determined forward effort that's despite the blanket mess that was the oncoming rush at the end there. Great Hunter didn't end up with the best result and SS definitely had his bobbly moments but that was traffic squirreliness, not the track. He overcame and nearly won. I'm not sure the result would've been much different on dirt with all other things being equal. It sets him up well later too. A good spot.

I'm gonna go back and watch the other race but I came out of watching the Blue Grass impressed with him doing what he did not 'wow he hates poly...totally gonna throw that out.' I'd like to hear what Carl and Calvin say about him so I can be sure my thoughts are right but I think he'll have much more trouble with his hanging habit and outside running than the track surface. Now if Hard Spun does like they did in the BG and slows the first quarter to :26 who knows. SS still closed well into that.

If you'll notice, I chose my words carefully. I said that "Street Sense seems to be a closer that does not like poly." I say that based on the fact that as both a 2yo and a 3yo he was beaten on poly by horses he would come back to absolutely CRUSH on dirt in his next start. Does that mean he is a terrible poly horse? Not at all. But I think all the available evidence from his career up to this point indicates that he is a better horse on dirt than on polytrack. That evidence only consists of two poly races, so it is certainly at least possible (though I think not probable) that he turns in a performance on Saturday that compares with his top performances on the dirt.
The fact that I believe he is a better horse on dirt than on poly in no way means that his connections are making a mistake in running him in this race. As other posters have already pointed out, he has done well using a poly race as a prep for his "big" races in the past.
It also in no way means that he can't win the race. I think he absolutely can.
Sumitas seemed to be saying that if Street Sense doesn't like poly there might be larger implications for the relationship between general trends regarding running styles and synthetic surfaces. My basic point was that taking one horse and using him to make such a broad statement does not - in my opinion - make a lot of sense.