Mach Ride

[justindew]

For those of you who like to make future wagers, BodogLife.com (formerly Bodog.com) is offering 30-1 on Mach Ride to win the BC Sprint.

Seems generous.

[NTamm1215]

Not concerned about the potential Calder horse for course issue?

He's a nice horse, but I took the Smile Sprint win with a grain of salt simply because of how the Calder surface can skew results.

30-1 though in a division that lacks a standout is somewhat interesting.

NT

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

30-1 though in a division that lacks a standout is somewhat interesting.

NT

If Midnight Lute is ready to run, the race is over. That is, assuming he points to the sprint instead of the dirt mile.

I haven't heard much about Diabolical lately. Does he have a prep coming up?

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Midnight Lute is a very nice horse. But I have to admit, with his size, and his habit of having gate issues, he seems vulnerable to me in the sprint. Especially since I don't think he has ever ran 6 furlongs.

he ran 2nd in an allowance race at 6f when he was 3....not sure of the distance when he broke his maiden. But I agree with you that he sems better suited to go a little farther....certainly his race record would suggest that he loves 7f.

[ArlJim78]

it looks like Midnite Lute is drawing a lot of attention and could end up the favorite. i don't like him in the sprint for the reasons dahoss mentioned. right now i picture him perhaps rolling up into the picture a little late, that is if he doesn't have trouble at the start. I do think he has ran six furlongs early on, but I don't believe in stakes company.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Diabolical was purchased by Godolphin I believe and is skipping the BC. He's pointing towards the big sprint race in Dubai.

Midnight Lute is a very nice horse. But I have to admit, with his size, and his habit of having gate issues, he seems vulnerable to me in the sprint. Especially since I don't think he has ever ran 6 furlongs.

Hard to believe that he couldn't do both...

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hard to believe that he couldn't do both...

Race a horse twice in 6 months!?! That's asking too much.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hard to believe that he couldn't do both...

and toss in the DeFrancis Dash in between....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

he ran 2nd in an allowance race at 6f when he was 3....not sure of the distance when he broke his maiden.

He broke his maiden at six furlongs in his debut at Del Mar as a 2-year-old, it was an impressive attention getting off-the-pace win.

The 2nd place finish in an allowance race you mention - the horse who beat him that day, Sailors Sunset is a very streaky horse who can be VERY good when he's on top of his game - if anyone remembers, he beat Smokey Stover in a small stake at Turf Paradise on the same day the Breeders Cup was run last year. He also set a track record at Hollywood Park in a Graded Stakes win.

I think Midnight Lute is fine going six furlongs at a normal track - however, six furlongs at Monmouth Park might be too sharp for him if the track plays similar to how it played in the summer.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

If Midnight Lute is ready to run, the race is over. That is, assuming he points to the sprint instead of the dirt mile.

I haven't heard much about Diabolical lately. Does he have a prep coming up?

I was looking at the Sprint a few days ago and I'm not so sure I'd bet anything short in the race, especially coming out of Belmont prep. The last chalk to win the Sprint was Otirntate (AP '02), other winning favorites were Kona Gold (CD '00), Lit de Justice (Woodbine '96), Cherokee Run (CD '94), and Ellio (Hwd '84). Artax won as a co-favorite. In 12 of 24 runnings of the Sprint, the winner has paid over $20; 8 of those paid over $30.

Gulch, Safely Kept, Dancing Spree, Cherokee Run, Artax, Squittle Squirt, Orientate, Speightstown and Silver Train won the BCSprint off a race in NY.

But, only Artax, Orientate and Silver Train won their NY prep. Artax won the Vosburgh then paid $9.40 in the BCS. Orientate won the Forego at Saratoga in his prior start and then paid $7.40 in the BCS. Silver Train won either an Allowance or Listed at Belmont in his prior start and paid $23 and change.

I think betting a horse off a winning NY G 1 prep is a losing deal.

It was interesting to see how horses prepping at lesser tracks did in the Bc Sprint.

Turfway:
1992: The first BC Sprint horse to prep at Turfway was Meafara in 1992. She ran 2nd in the BCS at 14-1.
1994, Chimes Band ran 5th at 20-1.
1995, Mr Greely missed a neck, running 2nd at 33-1.
1996, CApote Belle and Appealing Skier both ran out at fairly short odds.
1998, Reraise won at 7/2
1999, Successful Appeal ran 5th at long odds
2000 Caller One ran 4th at 4-1
2003, Cajun Beat won the BCS at 23-1. Private Horde ran out at a long number.

Summary of BCS starters prepping at Turfway:
Starters: 9
Wins: 2 (7/2 and 23-1)
2nds: 2 (14-1 and 33-1)

Four of the races have been won by horses prepping at Meadowlands (Ellio $4.60), Philly PArk (Smile $24.00), Arlington (Very Subtle $35) and in France (Sheik Albadou ($54).

11 horses have started off preps in France. Sheik Albadou won at 26-1 and another (Dayjuir at 2-1) ran 2nd but was probably best.

Seven horses have run in the BCS Sprint off prep races at Philadelphia Park.
Of those, Smile won at 11-1 and Thunderello ran 2nd at 48-1, and had the lead until the last few strides.

Eight horses have prepped for the BCS at Woodbine. Only one of those horses went off at less than 30-1. Three of those eight ran second in the BCSprint, missing by a nose, 3/4 and 3/4.

Eight horses won the BCS off a California prep, of those, Kona Gold ($5.40 in the BCS), Elmhurst ($35 in the BCS, his only G1 win), Cardmainia ($12.60 in the BCS, his only G 1 win) and Thirty Slews ($38 in the BCS, his only G 1 win) won their Californian preps.

Horses prepping at Belmont have been favored in 12 of 22 BCS races there has been a Belmont prepped horse entered. Two of those have won. Cherokee Run paid $7.60 and Artax (co-favorite) at 7/2.

The BC Spring charts are loaded with short-priced Belmont-prepped horses failing as favorites including the Pancho Villa/Mt Livermore entry, Birdonthewire, Not Surprising and Richter Scale (a co-favorite) at 3-1, Affirmed Success at 5/2, Rubiano at 2-1, Mining and Henny Hughes at 8/5, Groovy at 4/5 and Housebuster at 2/5.

Three BC Sprint favorites prepped at Saratoga. Orientate won and paid $7.60. Aldebaran ran out as did Midas Eyes.

Finally, one horse, Sewickely, prepped at Aqueduct and ran out while favored in the BCS Sprint off short rest.

Total BCS favorites winning off NY preps = 3
Total BCS favorites coming off NY preps = 16

I'm sure I could be off a bit as some of my notes are old and nearly illegible, but I would not take a short number on any horse in the BCS, especially coming off a NY Graded win.

good luck.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Completely agree. When it was first reported a month or so ago, I remember the discussions on here about it. I sort of figured and I could be completely wrong, but Godolphin had a awful Carnival of Racing last year. With their egos, I imagine they would like to change that around this year.

well, buying the bc sprint winner to run in dubai and win didn't work for them last year.....guess it was time for something completely different. wonder if he'll finish next spring any better than thors echo did this year?