11/8: Churchill (Late P4)

[Kasept]

Singled the wrong one (P4) in the AQU 7th yesterday as Adagio (3rd) never mounted a charge at the freewheeling Sleeping Indian who took them gate to wire. Chalky sequence returned a paltry $80+, and the P6 hunt was over early when single Deb's Roof could only manage a showing in the 4th. $14,500 back for successful 6 punters in a sextet that saw mostly top choices except for Albertrani's Love Cove ($24.40). Best opinion of the day came in the 6th with Bailero, Too Risky and Sweetiewheatie hooking up for a surprisingly generous $180.00 ($1) triple. Hope you did well..

Churchill the target Thursday with what appears to be a value-laden late quad. There is a carryover at the Downs, but we'll focus on the final four...


CHURCHILL DOWNS


7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Easy Money 9-2: Smith gelding's worktab a bit spotty..
Most Likely: #9 Easy Grades 3-1: Asmussen claimee off Lake; Yikes..
Exotics Use: #4 O'Connell's 4-1
Super Add: #6 Erdiston 6-1


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Confusing group and race likely provides key to success in the 4..

Best Value: #11 Lower Estate 10-1: Stall going well; Needs to get trip..
Most Likely: #6 Full Marks 6-1: Competitive versus ALW foes..
Exotics Use: #4 Purely Wild 6-1
Super Add: #5 Munition 5-1


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Phillips Pride 12-1: Romans' RicScale miss nursed front last..
Most Likely: #3 Gone Overboard 7-2: Nicks' red 4yo logical stalking under Leparoux..
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Peachtree 20-1: Faced Sumwon in Chicago; Overlaid here..
Super Add: #5 Sun Sheika 12-1: McPeek ITM stunning 43/86 first turf; 14/21 poly2turf..


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Poco Mas 7-2: Howard adds blinks to logical 2nd choice..
Most Likely: #10 Resent to Win 2-1: Romans' Arundel red has just missed thrice..
Exotics Use: #3 Clear Thinking 4-1
Super Add: #9 Daylatedollarshort 5-1


Multi-ticket P4 Play:

Main:

7: 3-4-9
8: 4-6
9: 3-8-9
10: 5-10

3x2x3x2 = $36


Backups:

A: 6/4-6/3-8/10 ($4)
B: 3-9/3-5-11-12/3-8/10 ($16)
C: 3-9/4-6/5/10 ($4)
D: 3-9/4-6/3-8/3-9 ($8)

36+32 = $68


Good luck!
Steve