Some Saturday Beyer Figures

[NTamm1215]

Here are some of Saturday's Beyers. Illman will have Sunday's on his FormBlog today or tomorrow:

Well Armed 105
Daytona 104
Spotsgone 103
Euroears 102
Grasshopper 102
Indian Blessing 99
Graeme Six 97
Golden Doc A 93
Double Trouble 92
Bsharpsonata 90
Pyro 90

NT

[Travis Stone]

Time will tell how accurate that 90 is for Pyro.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Time will tell how accurate that 90 is for Pyro.

It is a 100% accurate Beyer figure. Beyer figures (on dirt) don't take into account slow paces and bad trips. They reflect only the final time. So time won't tell anything in this case except what we already know, that it was a slow pace and a rough trip which compromised the final time.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Time will tell how accurate that 90 is for Pyro.

T/S,

Meaning what? These aren't subjective assignments... Indian Blessing ran that much fast than Pyro a half hour earlier (1/5 second x @2 pts. x 5 = 10 pts.). The figs couldn't appear more 'accurate' based on the comparison of the two races, those finishing behind the two winners, the overall card, etc..

There was far too much information produced in Saturday's Fair Grounds races to suggest that the fig for Pyro is inaccurate.. Pyro doesn't exist in a vacuum and figure making while sometimes an art, remains mostly a science.

[SundayStar]

yes the figure was slow. some peolpe will dog him for that. to me,the positives were:

1. he showed a willingness to win.
2. he showed a great turn of foot.
3. he overcame a trip that was far from ideal.

what's is his next race?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

...figure making while sometimes an art, remains mostly a science.

True, however, the interpretation of figures is 100% "art."

The 90 to me is low for this horse. I'm not saying it's an inaccurate calculation by any means, but that it doesn't truly represent how good this horse is. The numbers he ran last year show that he is capable of faster and until proven otherwise, I believe he can cycle back to those numbers, which put him right with the others at the top.

[NTamm1215]

I'd say the performance and figure for Grasshopper made it clear that he is not just a Saratoga horse for course and in the hands of a careful and prudent horseman like Neil Howard he has the potential to put together a nice little season. He is a winner at Churchill and Saratoga, handled the heat in the summer nicely, and seems to have a great deal of upside being so lightly raced. While I'm not one to forecast accomplishments like Eclipse Awards and such, I'd say he can definitely pick up a Grade I this year.

NT

[Travis Stone]

Outside of Curlin, who does Grasshopper have to beat? If they can zig-and-zag all year, with the abundance of G1's out there, Grasshopper could have a great year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Because of the way the Risen Star was run any final time speed figure had to be relatively meaningless. There's just nothing you can do.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Outside of Curlin, who does Grasshopper have to beat? If they can zig-and-zag all year, with the abundance of G1's out there, Grasshopper could have a great year.

It feels like that now....in the second week of February. Maybe it will be true, and nothing against Grasshopper, who has a great name, but let's hope there are better horses than Magna Graduate lurking somewhere out there.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

True, however, the interpretation of figures is 100% "art."

The 90 to me is low for this horse. I'm not saying it's an inaccurate calculation by any means, but that it doesn't truly represent how good this horse is. The numbers he ran last year show that he is capable of faster and until proven otherwise, I believe he can cycle back to those numbers, which put him right with the others at the top.

This is a suspect post...Even an idiot like me knows it makes no sense

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It feels like that now....in the second week of February. Maybe it will be true, and nothing against Grasshopper, who has a great name, but let's hope there are better horses than Magna Graduate lurking somewhere out there.

Yeah great name.. I should name my next Caradine

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by freddymo

This is a suspect post...Even an idiot like me knows it makes no sense

How so? You don't interpret figures? You don't account for bad trips, scenarios and situations into the figures you're reading? Is this post a joke?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It feels like that now....in the second week of February. Maybe it will be true, and nothing against Grasshopper, who has a great name, but let's hope there are better horses than Magna Graduate lurking somewhere out there.

Absolutely. Could you imagine the disaster it would be if Curlin never raced after Dubai? A horse like Magna Graduate or Awesome Gem would be top dawgs. Yikes.

[freddymo]

"but that it doesn't truly represent how good this horse is. "

Isnt a BSF or any figure a fig which represents the speed of the race.. A 7 claimer can run a 90 fig does that mean a 7 claimer is as classy as Pyro?

If pyro ran 100 or 90 fig what the F does mean with respect to his potential or quality?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It feels like that now....in the second week of February. Maybe it will be true, and nothing against Grasshopper, who has a great name, but let's hope there are better horses than Magna Graduate lurking somewhere out there.

I'm not sure if there are many or since I hate MG so much I'll say at least not many better than Silver Lord. He can probably move forward off this as the year goes on and should be able to push his figures up to where he was for the Travers. Unfortunately for the state of the older male division, anything over 105 this year is going to be a major threat to win a G1. Curlin, Spring at Last, and Daaher are off to Dubai. Gotta figure at least one and likely two don't make it through the rest of the year. Not many others out there capable of going 105+.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by snipersb23

It is a 100% accurate Beyer figure. Beyer figures (on dirt) don't take into account slow paces and bad trips. They reflect only the final time.

Originally Posted by Kasept

T/S,

Meaning what? These aren't subjective assignments... Indian Blessing ran that much fast than Pyro a half hour earlier (1/5 second x @2 pts. x 5 = 10 pts.). The figs couldn't appear more 'accurate' based on the comparison of the two races, those finishing behind the two winners, the overall card, etc..

There was far too much information produced in Saturday's Fair Grounds races to suggest that the fig for Pyro is inaccurate.. Pyro doesn't exist in a vacuum and figure making while sometimes an art, remains mostly a science.

100% correct.

A beyer speed figure is an adjusted final time.
It does not tell you anything else about the race shape, or the quality of the specific animal, or the quality of the race.

Invasor in his prime could have run in The Risen Star, and he probably gets "only" a 92 or 94 beyer for holding off a Pyro charge. Either that or the "art" takes a greater role and Invasor,pyro,etc.. awarded a higher beyer in line with projections and justified by a greater variant, and then Grasshopper and Indian Blessing get even higher figures...

Even a superior horse will score beyers that are subject to the race shape, if their style is to be rated to win the race, and not pushed to beat the clock.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

100% correct.

A beyer speed figure is an adjusted final time.
It does not tell you anything else about the race shape, or the quality of the specific animal, or the quality of the race.

Invasor in his prime could have run in that race and he probably gets "only" a 92 or 94 beyer for holding off a Pyro charge. Either that or the "art" takes a greater role and Invasor awarded a higher beyer in line with projections and justified by a greater variant, and then Grasshopper and Indian Blessing get even higher figures...

Even a superior horse will score beyers that are subject to the race shape, if their style is to be rated to win the race, and not pushed to beat the clock.

More so on the turf?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

With 2 of the great minds of this website now discussing this race, this thread has some kind of potential. I can't wait to see it all unfold.

you win 3200 and life is good.. I remember when I scored that kind of monster money the first time..I was high as a kite.. I remember not going to second period math and just counted the fifties one by one.. Oh to be 14 again..

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Absolutely. Could you imagine the disaster it would be if Curlin never raced after Dubai? A horse like Magna Graduate or Awesome Gem would be top dawgs. Yikes.

don't know about disaster but i Don't think you will see Curlin run in the US this year.