Pricing the Derby

[JJP]

We don't know who all will be there, but here's my take on it now:

Big Brown 2-1; hard to argue against his favoritism
Pyro 5-1; the Blue Grass meant nothing. His Risen Star is still the second best prep performance. He also has won over the track.
Gayego 7-1; yes, he SHOULD be bet more than Colonel John because he just may be better on real dirt than synthetic, and he has won w/out going wire to wire.
Colonel John 9-1; think his closing run was aided by the surface; lets see him translate his form to real dirt.
Tale of Ekati 15-1; thought he really benefitted from the pace but he has some of the characteristics needed (good 2YO; now rounding into form).
War Pass 15-1 ran a superior race to Tale of Ekati in the Wood but figures to have considerable pace pressure. Breeding suggests hes a miler
Big Truck, Cool Coal Man and El Gato Mallo 20-1--I think Big Truck is a little intruiging for the tri; Cool Coal Man had a good trip in the FOY but has won over the CD track.
Cowboy Cal, Momba, Z Fortune Dennis of Cork, Atoned 25-1
Adriano, Recapturetheglory, Visionaire 30-1

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by JJP

We don't know who all will be there, but here's my take on it now:

Big Brown 2-1; hard to argue against his favoritism
Pyro 5-1; the Blue Grass meant nothing. His Risen Star is still the second best prep performance. He also has won over the track.
Gayego 7-1; yes, he SHOULD be bet more than Colonel John because he just may be better on real dirt than synthetic, and he has won w/out going wire to wire.
Colonel John 9-1; think his closing run was aided by the surface; lets see him translate his form to real dirt.
Tale of Ekati 15-1; thought he really benefitted from the pace but he has some of the characteristics needed (good 2YO; now rounding into form).
War Pass 15-1 ran a superior race to Tale of Ekati in the Wood but figures to have considerable pace pressure. Breeding suggests hes a miler
Big Truck, Cool Coal Man and El Gato Mallo 20-1--I think Big Truck is a little intruiging for the tri; Cool Coal Man had a good trip in the FOY but has won over the CD track.
Cowboy Cal, Momna, Z Fotune Dennis of Cork, Atoned 25-1
Adriano, Recapturetheglory, Visionaire 30-1

Ok . . . Col. John Will be lower than Gayego and possibly Pyro. . . Big Truck will be way higher than 20-1. . . El Gato Malo isn't going to the derby. . . Neither is Atoned. . .

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

We don't know who all will be there, but here's my take on it now:

Big Brown 2-1; hard to argue against his favoritism
Pyro 5-1; the Blue Grass meant nothing. His Risen Star is still the second best prep performance. He also has won over the track.
Gayego 7-1; yes, he SHOULD be bet more than Colonel John because he just may be better on real dirt than synthetic, and he has won w/out going wire to wire.
Colonel John 9-1; think his closing run was aided by the surface; lets see him translate his form to real dirt.
Tale of Ekati 15-1; thought he really benefitted from the pace but he has some of the characteristics needed (good 2YO; now rounding into form).
War Pass 15-1 ran a superior race to Tale of Ekati in the Wood but figures to have considerable pace pressure. Breeding suggests hes a miler
Big Truck, Cool Coal Man and El Gato Mallo 20-1--I think Big Truck is a little intruiging for the tri; Cool Coal Man had a good trip in the FOY but has won over the CD track.
Cowboy Cal, Momba, Z Fortune Dennis of Cork, Atoned 25-1
Adriano, Recapturetheglory, Visionaire 30-1

if cowboy cal is 25-1 i will put every penny i was planning on using for pick 3-4 on him to win....i was thinking 10-15-1 on cowboy

[SOREHOOF]

I think Big Brown will start a little higher, and Monba,War Pass,Tale of Ekati a little lower.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I think Big Brown will start a little higher, and Monba,War Pass,Tale of Ekati a little lower.

no way........................ big brown is 2-1 at the most, i could see him at 8-5

[hockey2315]

I refuse to believe that people will be stupid enough to bet down Big Brown to 8-5. Can't wait til he draws post 20.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I refuse to believe that people will be stupid enough to bet down Big Brown to 8-5. Can't wait til he draws post 20.

i think they are...

the connections are so open that they think he is a freak. kent says its the best horse he has ever rode.

pyro ran bad, war pass did not win his last prep.
im telling you i think he could be 8-5, and i'd love that

[SOREHOOF]

Too much $$ in the win pool. Everyone is going to be looking for the next G-Mo to pop at a huge price. He might win but 3-1 is a heavy fav in this race. I hope War Pass goes off that high. If he's not taken seriously enough he might get an easier lead than everyone thinks. It would be easy to take a shot at 15-1. He might even stay around long enough to hit the board. He showed some guts finally in the Wood.

[hi_im_god]

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

[SOREHOOF]

I like Big Brown. I hope he's higher. I'll have bets with him and without him. I would feel a lot better if he was going to at least have a workout over Churchill before the race.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

[IrishofNDMan]

If War Pass if 15-1 or higher I will atleast take $50 of my derby money and put it on him to win, regardless of the distance ??? I think at those odds it is a good bet.

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

That sounds more like it. As more and more horses come in like this more will win and it will be a self fulfilling truth. If all of the horses have only 2 preps, a horse with 2 preps will win.

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

If War Pass if 15-1 or higher I will atleast take $50 of my derby money and put it on him to win, regardless of the distance $$$ I think at those odds it is a good bet.

Absolutely!

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

[SOREHOOF]

I might be more inclined to single him 3'rd or 4'th in the super. If he doesn't get the lead I don't trust him to come forward, but if he gets the lead I think he might hang on for a share, or maybe win.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

btw: the corollary to this is that after the derby, there is never a year where the winner isn't proclaimed the long awaited next 3crown winner.

we're in the trough now but the wave is coming.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

bellamy road went off at 5-2 so you could be right.

i had to look that up as i didn't remember his odds being so low.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

THE ALL MIGHTY FU PEGASUS WAS 2-1