Before Polytrack - Were KY Derby's This Wide Open?

[2MinsToPost]

Curious as to what the past Derby's have been like, in other words it appears that their is just wide open speculation on who might win. It seems Big Brown is the only possible stand out, and that is questionable at best based on all the talk going on now.

So is this because of the Derby preps run over polytrack? Which begs the question that came to me earlier today - if this is the case why not implement a mandatory dirt race from January to April? Would that help?

[Mike]

My answer to you is "Yes", considering the polytrack surface change of the SA Derby and Bluegrass Stakes, 2 of the Big 3 preps.

Most of us,even if we are not glued to speed figures, do realize that they dramatically changed handicapping . The synthetic track races, (all of them, not just Derby preps) get lower speed figs and unpredictable results, so far, thus causing uncertainty in the minds of 'cappers.

[Gander]

Big Brown will be the biggest favorite since Fu Peg and 10 times more deserving of it than Sweet Northern Saint was when he was favored.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Gander

Big Brown will be the biggest favorite since Fu Peg and 10 times more deserving of it than Sweet Northern Saint was when he was favored.

Sweetnorthernsaint was 11/2. Not quite Fu-Peg/Big Brown territory.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sweetnorthernsaint was 11/2. Not quite Fu-Peg/Big Brown territory.

Nope, not nearly Fu Peg but a questionable favorite to begin with.

Oops, I forgot about Point Given. I thought he was more like 3/1 but was wrong. Damn shame he had to suffer that "mystery injury" after he won the Travers without blowing a breath.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I noticed what you posted on the other thread about not wanting to accept 2-1.

Point Given was a stronger favorite than Fusaichi Pegasus, wasn't he (1.90-1 vs. 2.30-1)?

I have a feeling that he is not going to be the strong favorite that others have predicted.

I didnt say he wasnt deserving of being 2/1, I just said I wouldnt take him nor anyone else at that price. Its a matter of being too broke to be able to bet a 2/1 shot.
He is some kind of mover, aint he? Beautiful piece of horseflesh.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cardus

He has a great stride, for sure. I suspect that I will have one "defensive play" ticket with him on top in the event that he freaks.

He scares me to death Cardus. I wish I could afford to play defensive tickets.
The best I may be able to do is develop a strong opinion on the Oaks and play one straight double thats paying at least $30 with Big Brown. That would probably exclude Proud Spell and Eight Belles.
I can see a "Barbaro like move" from him and this thing would be all over.

[whodey17]

I am taking $180 and boxing the 10 longest shots in an exacta. If I do decide to make some saver, I will have Big Brown on top of all with 10 horses underneath in a tri. And I will prob do all/big brown/10. I will be $40 over my derby budget of $500.

[johnny pinwheel]

if a horse runs good then struggles on poly, put a line right through it, some horses hate it, its more like turf especially in keenland.

[pgiaco]

Originally Posted by Gander

I can see a "Barbaro like move" from him and this thing would be all over.

Maybe he is a freak but can we hold the Barbaro comparisons until after the Derby.