Visionaire

[kgar311]

Can someone explian to me why this horse is 6-1mL in an optional 75k claimer and the favorite is a horse that hasnt been out since Jan. and doesnt look like much? Can anyone see this horse going not going off odd on?

He's not that good?

[philcski]

He might be lower than 6-1 ML since people are such fans of TC runners, but not much. I think he goes off at 9/2 or 5-1.

He's a bet against.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

He's not that good?

I understand that but Roi Maudit 5/2?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Can someone explian to me why this horse is 6-1mL in an optional 75k claimer and the favorite is a horse that hasnt been out since Jan. and doesnt look like much? Can anyone see this horse going not going off odd on?

I think it is a bad morning line.
Not for the reason that I think VIsionaire is some kind of top dog win-contender in this race, but for the reason that the public wants to bet him.
Even with the bad line, he should still go off between 5-2 and 4-1 in this race.

The linesmaker is never supposed to handicap beyond public opinion. Even worse when he influences public opinion.
He isn't supposed to save you guys from yourselves. This isn't sportsteam betting where he makes Visionaire 6-1 to encourage more action...

As far as his chances? Visionaire will have a tough time sprinting against decent older horses.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Can someone explian to me why this horse is 6-1mL in an optional 75k claimer and the favorite is a horse that hasnt been out since Jan. and doesnt look like much? Can anyone see this horse going not going off odd on?

Well, he is a three year old facing elders for the first time and its not like he was dominating his generation. He is shortening up in distance, he doesnt have much speed and there isnt much speed in this race. 6-1 ML? I dont know but i definitely dont see odds on. You seem to like him so consider it a gift if it comes off like that.

Does anyone have any love for the 3 Street Magician?

Originally Posted by kgar311

I understand that but Roi Maudit 5/2?

I don't pay much attention to the m/l. BUT Roi Maudit, to me, is better value in this race than Visionaire. Visionaire's running style doesn't bode well for a sealed track and cutting back two panels.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Well, he is a three year old facing elders for the first time and its not like he was dominating his generation. He is shortening up in distance, he doesnt have much speed and there isnt much speed in this race. 6-1 ML? I dont know but i definitely dont see odds on. You seem to like him so consider it a gift if it comes off like that.

Does anyone have any love for the 3 Street Magician?

I believe the slop win in the Gotham will make him the fav. along with some back class. But I agree with all of the points you make. As far as Street Magician I dont see any races or works on a wet track, so how he'll handle the track is anyone guess.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I believe the slop win in the Gotham will make him the fav. along with some back class. But I agree with all of the points you make. As far as Street Magician I dont see any races or works on a wet track, so how he'll handle the track is anyone guess.

Good Luck with your pick, but I seem to agree with everyone else. He came from way back in th Gotham and actually should have ran second, if it wasn't for a very premature move made by Arroyo on Texas Wildcatter. Plus with the condition of the track yesterday, it seemed that you had to be very close to the front to have any kind of chance. I just don't think that he has the kind of speed to be near the front. Does he really have backclass because he won the Gotham? From what I remember it wasn't a mosterous field.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Good Luck with your pick, but I seem to agree with everyone else. He came from way back in th Gotham and actually should have ran second, if it wasn't for a very premature move made by Arroyo on Texas Wildcatter. Plus with the condition of the track yesterday, it seemed that you had to be very close to the front to have any kind of chance. I just don't think that he has the kind of speed to be near the front. Does he really have backclass because he won the Gotham? From what I remember it wasn't a mosterous field.

I never said he was my pick, I just questioned the ML. Hes been keeping pretty good company compared to a horse that hasnt been out since January.
I also seemed to agree with most of the people on here too.

[Gander]

Morning lines are one man's opinion of how he thinks the public will bet. Its made 36 hours prior to post and means nothing. The guys in Vegas who do the point spreads are real good at it. The guys who typically do the ones for horse racing are novices.

I got a real laugh yesterday hanging around with non track goers telling me such and such horse is going off at this price, 4 hours before the race even went off. I tried telling them to ignore the morning lines but they continuously were giving the morning line odds out all day long instead of what was currenlt on the monitors, you know the real odds?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Gander

Morning lines are one man's opinion of how he thinks the public will bet. Its made 36 hours prior to post and means nothing. The guys in Vegas who do the point spreads are real good at it. The guys who typically do the ones for horse racing are novices.

I got a real laugh yesterday hanging around with non track goers telling me such and such horse is going off at this price, 4 hours before the race even went off. I tried telling them to ignore the morning lines but they continuously were giving the morning line odds out all day long instead of what was currenlt on the monitors, you know the real odds?

So his opinion is the public will not back a horse in an optional claiming race that has already won a graded stakes, ran in the Kentucky Derby, Blue Grass and just ran a solid 3rd to Pyro and My Pal Charlie.
It just makes me think two things, either this guy wants a nice price on this horse or he knows something is wrong with him. Id feel a little more comfortable with the race if he was 3-1 or 7/2. But like you said ML are usually guides and I rarely go by them either.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by kgar311

So his opinion is the public will not back a horse in an optional claiming race that has already won a graded stakes, ran in the Kentucky Derby, Blue Grass and just ran a solid 3rd to Pyro and My Pal Charlie.
It just makes me think two things, either this guy wants a nice price on this horse or he knows something is wrong with him. Id feel a little more comfortable with the race if he was 3-1 or 7/2. But like you said ML are usually guides and I rarely go by them either.

Its interesting how people judge the transition from graded restricted company to unrestricted allowance. It will be interesting in this particular race because i wouldnt be surprised in which ever direction the odds end up.

On top of all that has already been mentioned, this has been an unusually weak class and you have to figure that will be taken into account.

[Bobby Fischer]

with Roi Maudit and Callmetoney out ...
Visionaire ought to get a lot of love from the fans.
Still some decent rivals.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

with Roi Maudit and Callmetoney out ...
Visionaire ought to get a lot of love from the fans.
Still some decent rivals.

Awww last years Travers "contender" is out also.(Loose Leaf)

[XIIPointStables]

He's without a win at the distance, but I'll try and get home with the 8 Out of Gwedda. He needed the last.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

He's without a win at the distance, but I'll try and get home with the 8 Out of Gwedda. He needed the last.

Billy B been on fire lately

[Gander]

Well, 3 key scratches- Roi Maudit, Call Me Tony and Loose Leaf. I think we are missing the 2 who would have been bet the most and Loose Leaf probably would have taken money too based on his win here last year.

I'll take a stab at the odds now...

Knights Cross 7/2
Kaper Lake 15/1
Street Magician 9/5
Visionaire 5/2
Temecula Creek 5/1
Out of Gwedda 20/1

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I believe the slop win in the Gotham will make him the fav. along with some back class. But I agree with all of the points you make. As far as Street Magician I dont see any races or works on a wet track, so how he'll handle the track is anyone guess.

I agree that people will go back to the Gotham slop performance. Interesting that Lezcano said after the race that Vis hated the off going and was slipping and sliding early in the race. I guess he just out-classed the great Texas Wildcatter.

Also on HRTV today, they said that Matz is pointing Vis to the Kings Bishop.

[kgar311]

woooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaa just opened even money