9/5: Belmont (Fall Meet Opener)

[Kasept]

With Saratoga in the rear view mirror, figuratively anyway, the Belmont Fall Championship Meet arrives and is always welcome. As I believe I opined last year, these 8 weeks are as good as Saratoga, and in many ways better, if you are adept at capping Elmont's elongated one-turn routes.

I enjoyed the strongest Saratoga I've ever had as a horseplayer, though as chronicled, the results of the first 21 days of the meet were far better than the remaining 15 when the bulk of the challenging full field turf racing took place. Will wade into the Belmont opener today with some strong individual race interest in advance of a big stakes Saturday at Sandy and a weekend featuring important action at Delaware, Arlington, Turfway, Calder and Woodbine.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

PASS


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Fascinating 7 horse field featuring babies from Baffert, KMc, Zito, Shug and J. Jerkens among others, with firsters by Speightstown, Distorted Humor, Toccet and Unbridled's Song lined up..

Best Value: #4 Prince Charming 6-1: Jerkens deadly 2nd out.. 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Celestial Diamond 2-1: $700k KMc W. Pointer tries again.. 6th
Next Best: #1 Ventana 5-2: Baffert babies usually ready for debuts.. WON
Exotics Use: #3 Speight of Hand 8-1: Young trainer Brown 'winning early'.. 3rd

$1 Trifecta (1-4-3) Paid $160.75
$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $35.75


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Les Grands Trois 3-1: Frankel-Live Oak colt gets pace set up.. 3rd
Best Value: #1 Like Now 5-1: Either POE capable on best.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Fearless Vision 5-1: Bounce back candidate on cutback.. 6th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Looking for prices in good betting heat, and fear Tagg's Ned Evans' homebred firster (#3 Sovereign Fund) more than favored Mott entry..

Most Likely: #10 Invisible Star 6-1: Inky get excel in lawn routes.. 9th
Best Value: #5 Precious Beans 8-1: Romans' Md'O saw grass bow washed off.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Insider 5-1: Kelly-Dizney red exits same off-turf affair.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ain't No Star 15-1: Flyer on Ritvo bay; Sire 26%+ with turf 1sters.. 12th


5th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Five Towns 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Can't Refuse 20-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Posted 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Executive Search 20-1 19th


<$75 P4 Play:

Very difficult sequence, but worth playing with especially big prices possible in 2nd half of the Quad..

2: 2-4
3: 1-7
4: 3-5-10
5: 1-3-5-6-7-9

2x2x3x6 = $72


6th: CLM/N2L, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Gold Deputy 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Unbridled Wish 15-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Hepcat 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 East End Boy 15-1 8th


7th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9fIT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Ranger James 5-2: Logical; First 2 showed promise.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Alpha Dancer 7-2: Excuse off turf fiasco.. 9th
Best Value: #7 Sir Cryptonite 15-1: Galloping Grocer sib always close.. 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Cops Fever 2-1: Back to lawn after rain pain; Loses ground.. 3rd


8th: The Positive Gal, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Diamondrella 5-2: Prefer Penna miss to ML fave.. WON
Best Value: #4 Taletobetold 4-1: Hard used early last.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Stormy West 2-1: Solid if unspectacular.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Solarana 6-1: Hough mare has faced nice ones..


9th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 9-2 WON
Next Best: #10 No Lien Here 2-1
Best Value: #7 Sir Sapphire 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Fortissi More 12-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 2-6-7-10
8: 1-4-6-8
9: 1-7-10

1x4x4x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

1

1A Lights of Broadway Early
2B Deputy G Early
3 Rumspringa Early
5 Soulshine Early
11 Hedge Fund Early


3

1A Out of Gwedda Early
2B Hollywood Left Early


4

12 Into My Soul Early
13 They're Late Early


5

2B Good Card Early
10 Endless Circle Early


6

8 Five Demon Bag Early


7

1 Smell My Carrots Early
12 Coaltown Legend Early
13 Hoist the Gala Early
14 Pegasian Early


8

3 Anofficerandalady Early
NO SUPERFECTA @ 10:45 AM
5 Pure Disco Early


9

1 (poe) City Sneakers Early
14 Above All Odds Early

[CSC]

Goodluck to anyone playing today, my only play is Elision in the 2nd at Woodbine.

[Kasept]

Well.. I'll take it I guess. That's a helluva trifecta payout in the 2nd ($160.00/$1)considering field size and who was involved.. Unhappy I left winner off the P4 play, but tri covers that ticket and then some..

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Well.. I'll take it I guess. That's a helluva trifecta payout in the 2nd ($160.00/$1)considering field size and who was involved.. Unhappy I left winner off the P4 play, but tri covers that ticket and then some..

Helluva tri box considering the field size. Nice hit...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Helluva tri box considering the field size. Nice hit...

Thx Phil.. Didn't have interest in the third's winner, so I guess the Quad wasn't going to happen anyway... Will start anew here with an eye on main track frontrunners. Look like it's going to be tough to come from off the pace.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)


Most Likely: #10 Invisible Star 6-1: Inky get excel in lawn routes..

This horse is a little interesting.

Positives:

1) shut off bad at the break, losing all chance
2) very green stretch --- not that they didn't try but when Luzzi tried to whip him, he was all over the place, and Mike was forced to ease up
3) 13:1 at the moment


Negatives:

1) 1st time around (quasi) 2 turns
2) Johnny V, WIDE by default, is breaking from the 10; so this guy needs to be good enough to win with a wide throughout trip
3) 13:1 at the moment

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

3) 13:1 at the moment

TFM..

Pletch ponies D-E-A-D DEAD on board for weeks now... I'm not someone that lives/dies by tote action, but WTF???

Thoughts?

(I'm playing him at that price of course but already feel like I've lost...)

[philcski]

Playing an online contest right now, HorsePlayersQualify.com, HPWS qualifier. Pretty good deal at $50 an entry. Was looking at the 10 and the 7 in that 4th... played the 10 thinking the 7 was too dead on the board... OUCH

[the_fat_man]

Not that the 10 was winning (he appears to need a sprint) but the pan shot doesn't begin to do justice to the trip he got. I mean, that needlessly wide, NO COVER trip NEVER wins on the turf. And, more often than not, Johnny V delivers it. He's basically buried Donk with these trips this summer.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Not that the 10 was winning (he appears to need a sprint) but the pan shot doesn't begin to do justice to the trip he got. I mean, that needlessly wide, NO COVER trip, NEVER wins on the turf. And, more often than not, Johnny V delivers it. He's basically buried Donk with these trips this summer.

Especially at Belmont...


Hit the Assman runner in the last in this contest... 4th place with 4 races to go. Somehow one guy has hit all three races at $9.40 & $4.80, $42 & $22 (capper), and $16.80 & $7.40, a cold $2,613 pick 3

the remaining races are Belmont r6, Fpx r3-r5. suggestions welcome...

[ateamstupid]

Carryover time.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by philcski

Especially at Belmont...


Hit the Assman runner in the last in this contest... 4th place with 4 races to go. Somehow one guy has hit all three races at $9.40 & $4.80, $42 & $22 (capper), and $16.80 & $7.40, a cold $2,613 pick 3

the remaining races are Belmont r6, Fpx r3-r5. suggestions welcome...

cost me the early pick 4 the assman timberah..%$$%#%#%$

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

cost me the early pick 4 the assman timberah..%$$%#%#%$

i woulda rather had that 7... sorry to hear that bro that was a monster pick 4

[Kasept]

Carryover Pool $38,908