She had it her own way

[the_fat_man]

Watching the show with BTW and Donovan. In the discussion of today's 8th at AQU, it was mentioned that while Waquoit's Love ran well two races back, against Criminologist, she also 'had it her way' on the front end, as she was the only speed.

I wonder is this is a correct assessment. In other words, my claim is that Criminologist had the better trip.

The attached chart of the race shows that Trouble Maker chased and made a move on the turn (more pronounced than shown in the chart); a move I thought was premature and not only compromised her chances but Waquoit's Love's, as well. The 3rd horse, early, Classic Neel, never made a bid and backed up. The winner and the 3rd horse both came off the pace.

So, while Waquoit's Love set the pace, she had to fight off the bid by TM (who barely held on for 4th) on the turn, which weakened her for the drive. All Criminologist had to do was pick up the pieces (barely).

Not meant as criticism, just trying to get clear on this type of dynamic.

[10 pnt move up]

Interesting, I see what you are saying from your chart.

[Indian Charlie]

who is donovan?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

who is donovan?

Donovan Leech, he gave up singing to do the card analysis and trips and traps with BTW.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Watching the show with BTW and Donovan. In the discussion of today's 8th at AQU, it was mentioned that while Waquoit's Love ran well two races back, against Criminologist, she also 'had it her way' on the front end, as she was the only speed.

I wonder is this is a correct assessment. In other words, my claim is that Criminologist had the better trip.

The attached chart of the race shows that Trouble Maker chased and made a move on the turn (more pronounced than shown in the chart); a move I thought was premature and not only compromised her chances but Waquoit's Love's, as well. The 3rd horse, early, Classic Neel, never made a bid and backed up. The winner and the 3rd horse both came off the pace.

So, while Waquoit's Love set the pace, she had to fight off the bid by TM (who barely held on for 4th) on the turn, which weakened her for the drive. All Criminologist had to do was pick up the pieces (barely).

Not meant as criticism, just trying to get clear on this type of dynamic.

I remember that race and can't really disagree, yes and no, WL did set a moderate pace but she was tried early on the turn by Classic Neel. Overall I would say she still got a pretty good trip all things considered and that premature move may have taken a little sting out of her stretch run, Criminologist did get a great trip, she saved all the ground and was produced patiently at the right time by Prado, hard to say if one had a definitively better trip than the other. I did think the 3rd place finisher Sefrouia was too far back for her to be effective, esp when her european form indicated she liked being up on the pace and she liked cut in the ground. If anyone she had the worst trip of the 3.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

WL did set a moderate pace but

This is where things get interesting on the turf. While I'm cognizant of the pace, and certainly note moves into a fast split, I've learned that pace, as typically used, can be deceiving on the turf. More often than not these days I tune it out, letting the flow of the race dictate which horse(s) got good setups and which didn't.