12/5: Delta Downs (Stakes P4)

[Kasept]

Took until late in the 4th quarter for me to find the end zone, but the Hollywood nightcap closed out the day wonderfully. "Best Value" Swiss Blonde anchored the $715 P4 score and all the available exotics ($57 EXA; $228 TRI; $623 SPR; $2,140 Hi-5). It was a welcome conclusion to whjat was becoming a frustrating afternoon after multiple near misses at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds. Hope you did well! Delta Downs offers a fun night of stakes action on the 'sabine sand' later today...


DELTA DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: Sam's Town, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tend 2-1 WON
Next Best: #3 No Advantage 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Coach Ryan 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Proud Kentuckian 9-2 4th

$1 Exacta (4-8) Paid $6.80


6th: Delta Princess (Gr. III), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 JUST JENDA 5-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Four Gifts 8-1 WON
Next Best: #6 C. S. Silk 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Loveyou Everybody 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $22.30


7th: Orleans, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Adsilver 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Dubit 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 SCR
Exotics Use: #9 My Heavenly Sign 7-2 WON

$1 Exacta (9-5) Paid $11.40
$1 Trifecta (9-5-3) Paid $28.60


8th: Delta Jackpot (Gr. III), 2yo,

This is a wild betting race.

Best Value: #3 Trinity Magic 8-1 9th
Most Likely: #7 Big Drama 5-1 WON
Next Best: #6 West Side Bernie 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Three Part Harmony 20-1 10th

$1 Exacta (7-6) Paid $23.70


<$50/<$100 P4 Play:

5: 3-4-8-9
6: 1
7: 3-5-9-10
8: 2-3-4-6-7-9

4x1x3x6 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Jax Cajun]

Steve - on the Jackpot. I agree with TM, WSB, and even TPH at a nice price with Albarado on his back. Just not sure about Big Drama with Coa. I think BD is his first mount of the night and that is a quirky track. I'd be more inclined to go with Terrain and Jaime Theriot. Plus he's coming out of 2 straight G1's.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

Steve - on the Jackpot. I agree with TM, WSB, and even TPH at a nice price with Albarado on his back. Just not sure about Big Drama with Coa. I think BD is his first mount of the night and that is a quirky track. I'd be more inclined to go with Terrain and Jaime Theriot. Plus he's coming out of 2 straight G1's.

JC,

I think that after Trinity Magic, there's about 4 of them.. I sided with Big Drama over Terrain, (whom I've defended as nice since the Chicago clusterphuck), on price and on Fawkes. He is not a guy who ships to obscure spots, and if Big Drama and Three Part Harmony get over the Calder surface, they'll get over the unusual footing at Delta.

I'm more concerned that I don't have the pace scenario correct here. If it collapses, Terrain, Bernie and the Casse colts move up, and if they don't go too, too fast early it stays in the hands of Trinty, Drama and Harmony. Bernie is the swing horse to me in either pace scenario based on the early ship-in and the way he got over the track. I'm not a Kelly Breen fan, but this is a very nice horse.

G/L tonight.. Fun series..

[hockey2315]

I agree that Trinity Magic looks like a big standout. . . Not sure there's any chance for 8-1, though. . .

[CSC]

Curious why Prado or Bridgmohan are not on Trinity Magic?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by CSC

Curious why Prado or Bridgmohan are not on Trinity Magic?

Prado is on way to Japan I believe.. Bridge staying with the Winchell. Nothing wrong with Borel who won this here last year.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Prado is on way to Japan I believe.. Bridge staying with the Winchell. Nothing wrong with Borel who won this here last year.

Yes good point, Edgar's scheduled to ride Tin Cup Chalice in Japan Sunday.

[Kasept]

Livin Lovin scratched from Delta Princess
By Abram Himelstein

Livin Lovin, the impressive winner of the Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct in her last start, has been scratched from Friday night's Grade 3, $500,000 Delta Princess at Delta Downs with a small chip in her left ankle, according to trainer Steve Klesaris.

[dylbert]

Here are my Jackpot Night selections. Leaving here shortly for annual jaunt to Vinton, Louisiana. Jackpot race time temperature is chilly 39 degrees. Have fun all!

RACE 1
Best Value: 2 Mynameishappy 5-1 2nd
Gotta Consider: 6 Senor Gold 6-1
Longshot: 8 Dr. Salopek 15-1

RACE 2 DELTA MILE
Best Value: 3 Crook's Stinger 6-1
Gotta Consider: 6 Smokeyjonessutton 5/2 2nd

RACE 3
Chalk: 4 My Sugar Ray 5/2 WON

RACE 4 TREASURE CHEST
Chalk: 5 Unforgotten 2-1 2nd
Longshot: 2 Zarb's Ballerina 10-1 3rd

RACE 5 SAMS TOWN
Best Value: 8 Coach Ryan 5-1 2nd
Gotta Consider: 4 Tend 2-1 WON

$2 Exacta: $13.60

RACE 6 DELTA PRINCESS
Best Value: 1 Just Jenda 5-1 5th
Gotta Consider: 4 Livin Lovin 5/2 (possible scratch?) SCR
Longshot: 8 Loveyou Everybody 10-1 4th Brutal ride by Kent D. -- tape does not do justice to horrible handling!

RACE 7 ORLEANS
Best Value: 3 Adhsilver 4-1 3rd
Gotta Consider: 10 Honest Pursuit 5/2 SCR

RACE 8 DELTA JACKPOT
Best Value: 3 Trinity Magic 8-1 9th
Next Best: 6 West Side Bernie 2nd
Gotta Consider: 7 Big Drama WON
Longshot: 9 Stimulus Plan 10-1 3rd

$2 Exacta: $47.40
$2 Trifecta: $461.00

RACE 9
Best Value: 2 Veritaserum 4-1 3rd
Gotta Consider: 7 Oliver's Cove 5/2 WON

RACE 10
Best Value: 2 Amozan Ruler 7/2
Next Best: 10 Regal Leah 4-1 WON

$2 Pick 3: 7-7-10 $102.20

RACE 11 "GET OUT SPECIAL"
Best Value: 5 Vet's Dream 5-1 2nd
Next Best: 9 Majestic Bandit 8-1
Don't Forget: 4 U Dazzelum 6-1

[NTamm1215]

Two horses that should be decent prices caught my eye in the PK4 sequence.

In the 5th, I was a bit intrigued by No Advantage. He has done basically no running in his last two tries at Oak Tree and Hollywood, but he's back on dirt now and the recent workout makes you think O'Neill sent him out with blinkers for the drill. He has very little speed around him, so the instructions with P. Val may be to run n' gun.

In the 7th, #1 SONG PRODUCTION is coming off a huge win where she fought tooth and nail and dispatched her rivals late. She earned a big time Beyer figure in there and the Spencer/Simington combo is always dangerous as Spencer is Simington's father-in-law. Their record at DeD over the last two years is outstanding and Spencer is particularly good with horses off any type of freshening and even better with horses coming off of victories.

Good luck tonight!

NT

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Two horses that should be decent prices caught my eye in the PK4 sequence.

In the 5th, I was a bit intrigued by No Advantage. He has done basically no running in his last two tries at Oak Tree and Hollywood, but he's back on dirt now and the recent workout makes you think O'Neill sent him out with blinkers for the drill. He has very little speed around him, so the instructions with P. Val may be to run n' gun.
Good luck tonight!

NT

I also really like No Advantage, and think I'm going to only use him and Coach Ryan in my pick 4. I'm going against Tend. Based on class, he looks tough, but his victories have come on polytrack and most recently in the slop. I think he's very beatable, and the race looks like it sets up perfectly for Coach Ryan.

[-BT-]

been looking at this card for 2 days now, hope it did some good


169 10
23
456
35 = $48

gl all, best wishes tonight on the card

-bt-

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

6th: Delta Princess (Gr. III), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 JUST JENDA 5-1

This is an intriguing horse. That she finishes well (actually accelerated the last 1/8th of her last race) sprinting suggests that she won't have much trouble going the two turn mile. YET, I wonder what how she'll run, stretching out and breaking from the rail. I'd think that they have to send her and maybe that's not the best thing for her, as there seems to be enough other speed in the race.

[Bigsmc]

Congrats to my boy Hal Queen.

He's got himself a nice one.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is an intriguing horse. That she finishes well (actually accelerated the last 1/8th of her last race) sprinting suggests that she won't have much trouble going the two turn mile. YET, I wonder what how she'll run, stretching out and breaking from the rail. I'd think that they have to send her and maybe that's not the best thing for her, as there seems to be enough other speed in the race.

TFM,

Thought she received a tentative ride by Saez who then translated what he learned there into a much better voyage on My Heavenly Sign in the next stake. I'm kicking myself for not builsing a better P4 play last night...

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Kasept

TFM,

Thought she received a tentative ride by Saez who then translated what he learned there into a much better voyage on My Heavenly Sign in the next stake. I'm kicking myself for not builsing a better P4 play last night...

I definitely thought it was strange ride. With her on the rail I thought that she was either going to be on the lead or very close to it. I thought she was a dangerous horse, but I didn't play her (first time around 2 turns & thought she might have just ran like a freak in the slop last out) . But, I have to admit that I was happy when she was taken back before the first turn. If I did support her I would have been less than thrilled with the ride she did get.