12/13: Calder P4; Hollywood P6

Kasept · #1 12-13-2008, 08:51 AM

CALDER RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Kenny Noe H. (Gr. III), 3+, 7f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Yesbyjimminy 8-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Hypocrite 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 How's Your Halo 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Flatter Me Blue 5-1 6th

8th: La Prevoyante (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 12f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 J'ray 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Communique 3-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Palmilla 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 You Go West Girl 10-1 4th

9th: Fred W. Hooper (Gr. II), 3+, 9f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCRATCHED It's a Bird
Next Best: #3 Gottcha Gold 3-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Dream Maestro 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Palladio 8-1 7th

10th: W. L. McKnight (Gr. II), 3+, 12f-T (P3, Super)

Spreading 6 wide in anchor leg with multiple possible upsetters signed on here..

Most Likely: #1 Summer Patriot 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Picou 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Windward Islands 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Precious Passion 8-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-8
8: 4-6
9: {2/SCR}-3
10: 1-3-6-7-9-11

3x2x1x6 = $36

HOLLYWOOD PARK ($85k C/O)

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult way to start the P6 with a group of sore-goers and long layoff returnees..

Most Likely: #2 Ukiah 3-1
Best Value: #7 So Behold 8-1
Next Best: #8 Distinctive Afleet 4-1
Super Add: #1 SCRATCHED

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Preemo 5-1
Next Best: #3 Captain Kali 9-2
Best Value: #9 Ringolevio 6-1
Super Add: #10 Oscar Bound 7-2

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dizzy Up the Girl 5-2
Best Value: #6 Inspiration Within 5-1
Next Best: #8 King City Kitty 4-1
Super Add: #3 Tamerin 6-1

8th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Icemancometh 5-2
Best Value: #4 Rivergrade Boy 8-1
Next Best: #12 Quarter Moon 12-1
Super Add: #3 Tommy's Luck 5-1

9th: 28th Hollywood Starlet (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Alpha Kitten 5-2
Best Value: #1 Toro Bonito 8-1
Next Best: #6 Pamona Ball 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Wynning Ride 12-1

10th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Play Nine 3-1
Best Value: #5 Top Rockette 20-1
Next Best: #9 Oktoberfest 6-1
Super Add: #1 Warrensmysterydice 8-1

<@$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-7-8
6: 3-6
7: 2-6
8: 1-4-12
9: 1-3-6
10: 10

3x2x2x3x3x1 = 108 x $2 = $216

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-8
8: 1-4-12
9: 1-3-6
10: 5-10

4x3x3x2 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Mike · #2 12-13-2008, 10:05 AM

Sorry to have to school you Steve Byk, but you mistakenly left out Laragh in the Hollywood Starlet

Kasept · #3 12-13-2008, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike

Sorry to have to school you Steve Byk, but you mistakenly left out Laragh in the Hollywood Starlet

You mean like you did the other day at Aqueduct?

She stinks and she'll be utterly overbet. Play her all you want.

Kasept · #4 12-13-2008, 10:11 AM

I take that back.. She doesn't stink exactly. But I want no part of John Terranova with a 2 year old filly making a SECOND west coast trip in 2 months AND with no time to acclimate with a likely winter coat already on her. She has the pace scenario in her favor and NOTHING else.

Mike · #5 12-13-2008, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

You mean like you did the other day at Aqueduct?

She stinks. Play her all you want.

Really!? Now, I was joking around about schooling you, of course, but I am unsure of why Laragh could be possibly thrown out of the exotics altogether

I was looking at this race and a few before it on the card, hoping to single Laragh in a Pick 3, and found only the other faves(IceManCometh and Dizzy Up The Girl). I was going to post here(before I decided to be a smartass) that there was no value to be found in the Starlet, as I liked Alpha Kitten and Dave's Revenge underneath. So, zero imagination/creativity/insight on my part

Mike · #6 12-13-2008, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I take that back.. She doesn't stink exactly. But I want no part of John Terranova with a 2 year old filly making a SECOND west coast trip in 2 months AND with no time to acclimate with a likely winter coat already on her. She has the pace scenario in her favor and NOTHING else.

Thanks for this, your reasoning. I'm unsure(ignorant) of the significance of the winter coat biz and the ship West, but it explains your thoughts

I may as well skip the race, as I don't want to go against her here, though you've laid out a plausible scenario of why she's vulnerable, at probably 6-5

turf fan · #7 12-13-2008, 10:18 AM

Steve,
You're killing my price with Picou in the McKnight! He's doing well, but must continue to move forward for the upset. We should get a good trip with Julien from the 3 hole and at present the #13 draws so the pace likely will be decent.

Kasept · #8 12-13-2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turf fan

Steve,

You're killing my price with Picou in the McKnight! He's doing well, but must continue to move forward for the upset. We should get a good trip with Julien from the 3 hole and at present the #13 draws so the pace likely will be decent.

Good luck today! In terms of including him, he stuck out like a sore thumb to me as a 'must use' at that price with any (likely) improvement and a ton of ground likely saved. Doubt Chad would 'waste' an effort here if he wasn't right, right now.

VOL JACK · #9 12-13-2008, 10:46 AM

steve, I think you have your numbers wrong when you typed the crc p4 ticket. 1st leg.

Kasept · #10 12-13-2008, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

steve, I think you have your numbers wrong when you typed the crc p4 ticket. 1st leg.

Thx VJ.. P4 tick was OK.. It was Hypocrite as the 7 that was wrong in the selections.. He's the #8.

miraja2 · #11 12-13-2008, 11:05 AM

Calder Pick 3: Races 6-8

7 / 1,3,5 / 4,6,7,9
1,5,7 / 3 / 4,6,7,9

miraja2 · #12 12-13-2008, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-8
8: 4-6
9: 2-3
10: 1-3-6-7-9-11

3x2x2x6 = $72

Does It's a Bird scare you in the first leg? I think he has a big chance.

Kasept · #13 12-13-2008, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Does It's a Bird scare you in the first leg? I think he has a big chance.

Still don't know for sure which way he's going. Calder changes only have him scratched from the 10th, and it was most likely he was to go in the Hooper (9th). If he goes in the Noe, it would indicate thatthat's where Marty Wolfson feel;s strongest about for a win...

VOL JACK · #14 12-13-2008, 11:29 AM

Gonna take a shot with Tremendous One in the 8th race. Ill pay to see if she is good enough. Ill protect with J'ray, and maybe a tad with Pamilla.
Not sure how much of a win candidate she is but, she should spice up the tri and super.

miraja2 · #15 12-13-2008, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Still don't know for sure which way he's going. Calder changes only have him scratched from the 10th, and it was most likely he was to go in the Hooper (9th). If he goes in the Noe, it would indicate thatthat's where Marty Wolfson feel;s strongest about for a win...

I thought I saw where the most recent Calder changes have him scratched from the ninth and the tenth, which made me think it is going to be the Noe. Maybe I saw it wrong.
I think the Noe would make the most sense. He's my second choice in that one after How's Your Halo. The steady regression in speed figues for Yesbyjimminy despite good trips almost every time make me think that one is vulnerable.

jms62 · #16 12-13-2008, 03:06 PM

3,5/1,4,6/3,8,9,10/1,3,4,5,7,11

MaTH716 · #17 12-13-2008, 03:22 PM

Early pick 3 at the Wood
3,6
4,11,14
2,5,6
$18
$81.30 for a dollar.

Crappy way to win, it looked like the 5 was beaten when the 1 took a bad step and broke down.