Wknd Beyers: Quality Road 103; Big Drama 109

[Kasept]

*Swale (GP): This Ones For Phil (R. Dutrow Jr./G. Gomez) - 108 (*Big Drama finished first with a 109 Beyer, but was disaqualified, and placed second)

*Rampart (GP): One Caroline (G. Arnold II/E. Prado) - 104
*Santa Paula (SA): Carlsbad (J. Mullins/T. Baze) - 103
*Florida Derby (GP): Quality Road (J. Jerkens/J. Velazquez) - 103
*Appleton (GP): Kiss the Kid (A. Tarrant/E. Trujillo) - 101
*Harrison E. Johnson Memorial (Lrl): Bullsbay (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 100
*Carousel (OP): Palanka City (T. Gestes/C. Emigh) - 100

*Sensational Star (SA): Liberian Freighter (N. Drysdale/R. Bejarano) - 99
*Tokyo City Cup (SA): Stream Cat (P. Biancone/J. Talamo) - 98
*San Miguel (SA): Triumphant Flight (J. Kruljac/V. Espinoza) - 94
*Strate Sunshine (Haw): Kathleens Reel (F. Kirby/I. Karlsson) - 91
*B-Connected (DeD): True Course (S. Margolis/I. Diego) - 91
*Next Move (Aqu): Weathered (K. Grusmark/M. Luzzi) - 90

*Portland Meadows Mile (PM): Crafty Power (J. Hollendorfer/J. Crispin) - 89
*Sunland Park Oaks (Sun): Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/V. Espinoza) - 88
*Bonnie Miss (GP): Justwhistledixie (K. McLaughlin/J. Leparoux) - 87
*Sunland Derby (Sun): Kelly Leak (M. Machowsky/M. Smith) - 87
*Harry W. Henson (Sun): Prairie Charm (G. Cross/K. Tohill) - 86
*Red Camelia (FG): Tensas Yucatan (M. Nicks/H. Theriot II) - 86
*Lookout (DeD): Ruling Class (T. Romero/K. Leblanc) - 85
*Missy's Mirage (Aqu): By the Light (R. Dutrow Jr./R. Migliore) - 84
*John E. Jackson Jr. Memorial (FG): Mr. Porter (T. Amoss/J. Graham) - 84
*Happy Ticket (FG): Alphadoodle (F. Leggio/R. Albarado) - 82
*Rainbow Miss (OP): Affirmed Truth (T. Ice/J. Court) - 80


GP ALW/MSW'S:
Just Ben 96
Santana Six 96
Senor Leche 60
Glitterman's Cartel 94; Nicanor 93
Vitruvius 95
Jacoby's Run 76

Friday: Dr. Pleasure 103

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

QR 103
Dunkirk 100

C'mon there is 3 more days until April Fools

[NTamm1215]

Clearly, Quality Road "bounced."

NT

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

C'mon there is 3 more days until April Fools

I'll let our own 'speed boys' delve deepest, but those figures make perfect sense and show the track was a little faster than par. Dunkirk's # is rignt in line with his last, and Quality Road regressed logically on the initial two turn try off the huge one turn effort. What's the issue?

[justindew]

BRIS numbers are similar, FYI.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'll let our own 'speed boys' delve deepest, but those figures make perfect sense and show the track was a little faster than par. Dunkirk's # is rignt in line with his last, and Quality Road regressed logically on the initial two turn try off the huge one turn effort. What's the issue?

I think it's my own personal bias with what constitutes a good race, and a confusion of the beyers as something that measures quality of the race, or performance.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by justindew

BRIS numbers are similar, FYI.

Interesting...

Quality Road's performance yesterday, in terms of pattern development, was nearly identical to his ALW regression (90) after the MSW win (101): FOY (113) to the FL Derby (103).

Consecutive pattern: 101-90-113-103.

[Travis Stone]

I went back to old Derby winner charts because I thought in my mind there were a few winners who regressed in their prep, and then moved forward again for the Derby. But really only a few did, and they're minor examples (Monarchos did and so did Smarty Jones, but Smarty Jones only did it with one point. Street Sense did, but it was poly).

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I went back to old Derby winner charts because I thought in my mind there were a few winners who regressed in their prep, and then moved forward again for the Derby. But really only a few did, and they're minor examples (Monarchos did and so did Smarty Jones, but Smarty Jones only did it with one point. Street Sense did, but it was poly).

Thunder Gulch..

[TheSpyder]

So are you saying he's sitting on a 125, or have I taken too many of those online IQ tests?

Originally Posted by Kasept

Interesting...

Quality Road's performance yesterday, in terms of pattern development, was nearly identical to his ALW regression (90) after the MSW win (101): FOY (113) to the FL Derby (103).

Consecutive pattern: 101-90-113-103.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'll let our own 'speed boys' delve deepest, but those figures make perfect sense and show the track was a little faster than par. Dunkirk's # is rignt in line with his last, and Quality Road regressed logically on the initial two turn try off the huge one turn effort. What's the issue?

Feels a little low to me. Ran the numbers using Beyer's projection method and there's two ways to look at it IMO, both leaving out the Fl Derby.

(1) take the average of all the variants not including the Fl Derby. I get:
R1: 102 Just Ben (85 Mighty Score)
R2: 88 Santana Six
R3: 55 Senor Leche
R5: 86 Glitterman's Cartel (85 Nicanor)
R7: 100 Vitruvius (97 Groomedforvictory)
R9: 113 Big Drama (112 This One's for Phil)
R10: 110 Quality Road (107 Dunkirk)
R12: 68 Jacoby's Run

(2) Leave out the outlier, R12, which could be just as dreadful as the time indicated (the winner was 4-1 coming off a 4 length defeat in a $80k MCL...) which drops every race by 2 points.

It seems to me that everything fell pretty much into line except the last race (the variant range were a very tight 12 to 20 from the raw figures), which is why I don't understand why it's 5-7 points lower than what I get.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thunder Gulch..

He went 105-101-101 which could be considered a regression overall but I was thinking more specifically in final prep.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Not an easy figure because it was the days only two turn dirt route race.

I projected a 106 figure for the race. I can see a 103 though. The five horses who raced close to the pace in the 7 horse field - including the winner - all made double digit backward moves .. while the two deep closers in the race ran slight new career tops.

Certainly not the type of thing you expect to see on a track like that when the raw pace number came back 11 points slower than the raw final.

[justindew]

Quality Road's BRIS Speed ratings (debut first): 102-97-110-103
Quality Road's Beyer Speed Figures: 101-90-113-103

[Bobby Fischer]

i don't think Quality Road "regressed" a bit, but yea his final time figure should be a little lower than his FOY even though they broke the track record, because the track was so fast.

I know I am talking semantics here.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm sure there are a handful who regressed and went on to win the Derby. I'd be interested to see how many of those were coming off a 113, bounced, but won a G1 anyway.

[sdjcom]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Clearly, Quality Road "bounced."

NT

well maybe he did by the numbers however even on a speed track, records being broken the thing that impress me was Dunkirk got to him in str and Qr just pulled away, that move will overcome bad bounce figures anyday,and besides if he bounced that bad what happened to the horses he beat? Dunkirk,there goes jo-jo, the race was better than the beyers can show.

[Bobby Fischer]

The only thing he bounced on was the numbers on a paper.

There is a pretty good chance that Quality Road was a better classic distance race horse on Florida Derby day, than on Fountain of Youth day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

The only thing he bounced on was the numbers on a paper.

There is a pretty good chance that Quality Road was a better classic distance race horse on Florida Derby day, than on Fountain of Youth day.

I don't believe in "bounce."

NT

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm sure there are a handful who regressed and went on to win the Derby. I'd be interested to see how many of those were coming off a 113, bounced, but won a G1 anyway.

Secretariat?