ATR Saturday (4/11) Selections

[Kasept]

Had very nice afternoon at Keeneland Friday despite agonizing wire beat out of very big P4 score. Previous 3 events earned large P3 though, and day's excellent exotics should have sent you home with some bankrol for today's Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby cards. Hope you did well. On way to Landover, MD this a.m., so it will be difficult to make post-scratch adjustments until early afternoon. Hope you enjoyed ATR from Foxwoods Thursday and Friday!


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: Shakertown (Gr. III), 3+, 5,5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Hero's Reward 5-1: May be better next, but respect Capuano veteran..
Most Likely: #4 Mr. Nightlinger 5-2: Serious specialist back for title defense..
Next Best: #7 Rolllers: Solid Tagg Empire bred threat if he likes lawn; 2nd/break..
Exotics Use: #5 Cannonball 12-1: Got turf sprint education last; Can boost exotics..
Super Add: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1: Non-coupled to ML fave; 5yo gets GoGo..


7th: Commonwealth (Gr. II), 3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Rebellion 5-2: Won this off similar break last year..
Best Value: #2 Keep Laughing 6-1: KMc DistHumor needs best, but can pop up..
Next Best: #4 My Pal Charlie 4-1: Stall says turnback should suit Gr. II winner..
Super Add: #1 Eternal Star 9-2: Trombo tabbed this over Gr. I Carter; Capable..


8th: Jenny Wiley (Gr. II), F&M04+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 I Lost My Choo 6-1: Serpe NY bred always ready; Goes 2nd/layoff..
Best Value: #6 Kiss With a Twist 30-1: LDK mare prepped on TP poly; Explodes here..
Next Best: #3 Forever Together 1-1: BC Turf star formidable; Sheppard's guns ablaze..
Super Add: #9 Visit 5-1: Frankel's Juddmonte miss may prefer KEE Euro course to Cali's..


9th: Blue Grass (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Charitable Man 4-1: McLaughlin Futurity winner working brilliantly for '09 bow..
Best Value: #4 Ciffy's Future 20-1: Poly prep score noted for connections who won this with Dominican..
Next Best: #2 Join in the Dance 10-1: Pletcher TB Derby runner-up a wire threat loose on lead..
Exotics Use: #1 Patena 10-1: Expect snap back effort after FG fiasco; Liked Woodbine's synthetic..
Super Add: #5 Mafaaz 12-1: Likely better than people anticipate; Paceless affair could suit..


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-7-9-10
7: 1-2-4-7-8
8: 1-3-6
9: 4-9

5x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75


10th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Pick Six 6-1
Best Value: #1 Jazz Quest 10-1
Next Best: #10 Jamaludin 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Free Fighter 5-1
High 5 Play: #9 Mr Maccool 15-1



AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


: 9th: Comely (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dream Plat 9-5: KMc Hennessy miss should stalk, go..
Best Value: #2 Don't Forget Gil 5-2: FL Oaks heroine comes late; Will be lost on board..
Next Best: #4 Laragh 2-1: HOL Starlet winner may need one..



OAKLAWN PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


11th: Arkansas Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Old Fashioned 9-5: Should get more comfortable trip today..
Best Value: #3 Flat Out 10-1: Caught attention early and believe he steps up..
Next Best: #2 Papa Clem 6-1: Stute's careful handling paying off; Gets 1st fast, dry strip..
Super Add: #9 Win Willy 7-2: Much less pace to chase; Needs decent showing only..


Good luck!
Steve



GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION

Gulfstream Park


R7 - Md Clm (30-27.5) (Turf)

#6 Sarah's Sally - Takes the biggest drop in the game.
#1 Lovamor - Money burner finds herself with Wolfson after Pletcher.
#8 Flip the Coin - Dutrow 1ster has decent enough works.

R8 - Alw 44k N1X

#5 First Passage - $1.2 Mil purchase broke maiden from the parking lot.
#9 Light Green - Just missed at odds on in latest.
#3 Firey Glow - Grey filly won at 1st asking and has fired back to back bullets.
#8 Lion Queen - Makes '09 bow and 1st conventional dirt start for McPeek.

R9 - South Beach 50k (Turf)

#13 All is Vanity (Fr) - Group 2 winner in home country and this seems to be her favorite distance. Last seen in G3 Violet at the Meadowlands last October.
#7 Flibberjibit - 3rd in extremely strong G3 Honey Fox earlier in the meet and the slight cutback should help.
#1 Raw Silk - Classy filly should be forwardly placed right off the bench.

R10 - MSW 42k

#5 Chapel Affair - McPeek runner looks ready to graduate off steady work pattern.
#1 Zesty Brew - Ran well at 1st asking in the slop and should improve off that effort.

PK4 - 1 6 8 / 1 3 5 8 9 / 1 7 13 / 1 5 = $45 ($.50 play)



Keeneland

R6 - G3 Shaketown (Turf)

#4 Mr. Nightlinger - Defending champion is perfect at the distance (5 for 5).
#1 Hellvelyn - Off the pace threat as in his most recent race at GP.
#10 Heros Reward - Solid record and must be used.
#9 Chamberlain Bridge - Must rate to contend here.

R7 - G2 Commonwealth

#8 Rebellion (GB) - It worked last year, why not try it again. Defending champ made '08 debut off similar layoff.
#2 Keep Laughing - Lighty raced 4yr old's best performance came on the surface last year.
#4 My Pal Charlie - Consistent sort has been battling with tough company going longer.

R8 - G2 Jenny Wiley (Turf)

#7 Backstreet Rhythm - 2nd in G1 QE II Cup and gutsy rail win at TBD in latest makes her a huge threat.
#1 I Lost My Choo - Impressive start to the year taking the tough G3 Honey Fox at GP.
#9 Visit - Frankel/Gomez look to make amends for odds on defeat in the G2 Santa Ana Handicap.
#5 Rustic Flame (Ire) - She's in very good form and can light up the toteboard.

R9 - G1 Blue Grass

#3 Theregoesjojo - Battle tested against some of the division's best.
#1 Patena - Willing to give him another shot after La Derby (slop) disappointment.
#2 Join in the Dance - Can take them along way on the front.
#10 Hold Me Back - A minor aware seems most likely here.

All Stakes PK4 - 4 / 2 4 8 / 1 5 7 8 9 / 1 2 3 / 3 7 8 10 = $30 ($.50 play)

R10 - Alw 62k N3X (Turf)

#7 Pick Six - Should be in good position in a race that lacks pace.
#10 Jamaludin - Will not mind the cut in the ground.
#3 Why Tonto - Adds the hood and expecting much better in 3rd start off a year layoff.
#8 Equitable - One of two with a win on this course and Mott has him ready to fire a big one.

PK4 - 2 4 8 / 1 5 7 8 9 / 1 3 / 3 7 8 10 = $60 ($.50 play)


Oaklawn Park

R11 - G2 Arkansas Derby

#8 Old Fashioned - I look for a bounce back performance with a completing different pace scenario.
#2 Papa Clem - Finally gets dry real dirt to prove he belongs.
#1 Captain Cherokee - Assumusen hoping Gryder can help Midnight Lute's half brother grab a piece.
#9 Win Willy - Should round out the bottom of exotics this time at a much shorter price.

Tri Key 8 / 1 2 6 9


Good Racing Luck