The Flat starts in earnest

[Pedigree Ann]

ANybody else blown away by Fantasia at Newmarket today? One second she's running with the field and 2 seconds later she's 5 lengths clear. The commentators said she's going to the French Guineas!?!? Why wouldn't her connections bring her back for the real Guineas on a track she obviously enjoys?

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

ANybody else blown away by Fantasia at Newmarket today? One second she's running with the field and 2 seconds later she's 5 lengths clear. The commentators said she's going to the French Guineas!?!? Why wouldn't her connections bring her back for the real Guineas on a track she obviously enjoys?

her owner owns the favourite as well who beat her fair and square last year?\

she did look very good today, but she beat trees. She deserves a shot at the English 1000, but the owner has a better one waiting it seems, Might as well win 2 Guineas rather than run 1-2 in one.. . Tomorrow's Craven should be very informative tomorrow!

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by brockguy

her owner owns the favourite as well who beat her fair and square last year?\
!

I have noticed that horse-people in the British Isles seem to think that horses don't change from 2 to 3, or 3 to 4 for that matter. If a horse was a modest 2yo, it can't possibly turn into a pattern-type 3yo. Once a handicapper, always a handicapper. Obviously, the ideal horse is a as good at 2 as at 3 and at 4, but very few horses are ideal. Why couldn't Fantasia have grown up more than her rival and be better now?

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I have noticed that horse-people in the British Isles seem to think that horses don't change from 2 to 3, or 3 to 4 for that matter. If a horse was a modest 2yo, it can't possibly turn into a pattern-type 3yo. Once a handicapper, always a handicapper. Obviously, the ideal horse is a as good at 2 as at 3 and at 4, but very few horses are ideal. Why couldn't Fantasia have grown up more than her rival and be better now?

I couldnt disagree any more... that is just ridiculous, there are a million and one cases of horses improving leaps and bounds from 2 to 3, 3 to 4, from the spring of their 3yo career to the Autumn etc etc etc.. Fantastia showed she is in good heart, but Im sure Rainbow View has as well on the gallops..

[NoChanceToDance]

I do actually think that Fantasia could well have improved past Rainbow View over the winter. She always looked like more of a three year old type.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Rainbow View, but I'm just not sure if she is going to be any better this year than she was last year, whereas I'm convinced (and I've thought this all winter) that Fantasia has LOTS of improvement left in her, even after her great display yesterday.

It's very unlikely she will be seen running against Rainbow View this year. George Strawbridge thinks the world of Rainbow View and couldn't have her facing a tough task in the Guineas, so he bought her main rival (just like Godolphin do, time after time).

It's a great shame, because I honestly think that Fantasia will be the better of the two this year.

[NoChanceToDance]

Not been a great Craven meeting for me. I had my biggest bet in a long time on Twice Over in the Earl Of Sefton today. I know some will say serves me right for betting and odds on shot in a "money buying" stab in the dark, however this was not the case.

I often find horses much better than this grade make this seasonal debuts in this. Notnowcato, Manduro and Phoenix Tower for example (all three have been large bets for me).

Twice Over was miles clear on form in this, he obviously loves the track and the distance looked ideal. Henry Cecil has started this flat season well and is always keen to make his mark at this meeting.

My one concern last night was the ground, I was concerned it might be a little too quick for him. The very next moment I heard a thunder storm outside, drenching the ground with a nice drop of rain (remember, I'm only 5miles from the track). I assumed they got the rain, too. Agaian this morning we had some heavy showers. Surely the ground would be no faster than good?

I went to work, expecting a big pay day after snapping up evens and 5/6 about a horse I thought should have been around 4/7.

However, none of the previous rain hit the track and the ground was arguably quicker than the descripted good to firm. The horse hated it and didn't pick up as expected.

I felt sick.

[brockguy]

I agree that if they were in different ownerships it would be a fascinating race, but If owned them Id keep them apart and let them meet in Royal Ascot all being well.

What did you make of Delegator in the Craven? I have to say I dont like him one bit. I think he is so overhyped like many of Brian Meehans. I would rather back Intense Focus and Lord Shanakil (albeit not good that he withdrew from tomorrows trial) at much bigger odds who beat him in the Dewhurst....

I think the Irish juveniles were particularly strong last year (albeit with no outstanding candidate) and there are plenty of good 3year olds here...

[Pedigree Ann]

What do you make of Vocalised? Workmanlike is what it looked to me. But maybe the ground made a difference?

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

I agree that if they were in different ownerships it would be a fascinating race, but If owned them Id keep them apart and let them meet in Royal Ascot all being well.

What did you make of Delegator in the Craven? I have to say I dont like him one bit. I think he is so overhyped like many of Brian Meehans. I would rather back Intense Focus and Lord Shanakil (albeit not good that he withdrew from tomorrows trial) at much bigger odds who beat him in the Dewhurst....

I think the Irish juveniles were particularly strong last year (albeit with no outstanding candidate) and there are plenty of good 3year olds here...

At last, someone with some sense.

A couple of people (who I thought knew their stuff) came up to me yesterday and said "it's got to be delegator for the guineas".

How on earth is he favourite. His win in th craven looked good, but the craven is rarely a great race and he was entitled to win as he did. I wouldn't say what he showed there was any better than any of his 2yo form, which to me isn't good enough to win a guineas in any country.

The Guineas this year does not look like it will be the strongest of races, but even with that in mind I cannot have Delegator good enough to win it. If he does it will be a very disappointing year for 3yo colts.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

What do you make of Vocalised? Workmanlike is what it looked to me. But maybe the ground made a difference?

He's a decent enough horse but Intense Focus and Gan Amhras are better horses from the same stable so it's a decent guide to how good they are..

[_ed_]

It sounds like the Derby price for Fame And Glory has been slashed after his Ballysax win to 7-1...is that too hasty, do you think? Or was he that impressive?

[brockguy]

Ed, I was impressed with him. O'Brien's horses havent been firing and he was shouldered with a 5lb G1 penalty (for winning what was a very weak G1 last year!) so you could hardly have expected much, but he won well. With the connections etc, it was only natural that the price would tumble. He looks to be there number one horse unless they try to convert Rip Van Winkle into one after the Guineas..