My Derby odds

[JJP]

Its still 5 days out and posts haven't been drawn but IMO, this is a good starting point:

I Want Revenge 3-1
Dunkirk 9-2
Fresian Fire 6-1
Pioneer of the Nile 8-1
General Quarters 8-1
Musket Man 10-1
Papa Clem 15-1
Regal Ransom 15-1
Chocolate Candy 20-1
Desert Party 20-1
Advice 30-1
We Willy 30-1
Hold Me Back 30-1
Square Eddie 30-1
Mr Hot Stuff 50-1
West Side Bernie, Summer Bird, Mone that Bird all 99-1

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by JJP

Its still 5 days out and posts haven't been drawn but IMO, this is a good starting point:

I Want Revenge 3-1
Dunkirk 9-2
Fresian Fire 6-1
Pioneer of the Nile 8-1
General Quarters 8-1 - way higher
Musket Man 10-1 - a lot higher
Papa Clem 15-1 - a little higher
Regal Ransom 15-1 - higher
Chocolate Candy 20-1
Desert Party 20-1 - way lower. . . unfortunately. . .
Advice 30-1
Win Willy 30-1
Hold Me Back 30-1 - lower?
Square Eddie 30-1 - lower?
Mr Hot Stuff 50-1
West Side Bernie - lower, Summer Bird, Mine that Bird all 99-1

......

[philcski]

You're missing a few horses... although I don't disagree with your line too much (even though it doesn't quite add up to par), other than i think you're low on General Quarters and Musket Man. Monba didn't have too much difference of a profile to GQ and he went off at 31-1 last year.

Here's my new line with Quality Road out.

I Want Revenge 3
Dunkirk 5
Fresian Fire 7
Pioneer of the Nile 8
General Quarters 17
Musket Man 20
Papa Clem 20
Desert Party 20
Regal Ransom 23
Chocolate Candy 25
West Side Bernie 25
Win Willy 30
Hold Me Back 30
Square Eddie 30
Advice 40
Mr Hot Stuff 50
Summer Bird 60
Mine that Bird 60
Flying Private 60
Join In the Dance 60

[JJP]

Originally Posted by philcski

You're missing a few horses... although I don't disagree with your line too much (even though it doesn't quite add up to par), other than i think you're low on General Quarters and Musket Man. Monba didn't have too much difference of a profile to GQ and he went off at 31-1 last year.

Here's my new line with Quality Road out.

I Want Revenge 3
Dunkirk 5
Fresian Fire 7
Pioneer of the Nile 8
General Quarters 17
Musket Man 20
Papa Clem 20
Desert Party 20
Regal Ransom 23
Chocolate Candy 25
West Side Bernie 25
Win Willy 30
Hold Me Back 30
Square Eddie 30
Advice 40
Mr Hot Stuff 50
Summer Bird 60
Mine that Bird 60
Flying Private 60
Join In the Dance 60

Needless to say I'm a bit bullish on both General Quarters and Musket Man; at least in that I think both could crash the tri. I'd say there's a huge difference between Momba and General Quarters: GQ has already run a 102 Beyer in a two turn DIRT race while Momba was not a dirt horse at all. I would compare Momba to Hold Me Back, who looks like a synthetic specialist.

[robfla]

I believe that Phil is much closer to the expected prices...

I would be very surprised to see more than 4 horses under 15:1 ( IWR, Dunkirk, POTN, FF ) . Probably several between 15-25:1 ( Papa Clem, Choc Candy, Desert Party, GQ. )and the rest 25:1 and over with Mine That Bird and Flying Pvt rounding out the prices at over 60:1

[Bobby Fischer]

Now Square Eddie out??

this is tha ol' bait and switch!

they keep scratching the underlays

if they scratch Pioneerof denial I am learning to hustle poker

[ninetoone]

I would guess that POTN will be lower odds than Fresian Fire....just a guess.

[JJP]

POTN could go off lower than Friesan Fire. But he shouldn't. What has he proven on real dirt? We've seen that synthetic form is just not representative of real dirt form and must always be viewed skeptically. There also has been speculation that the Beyer figure for Friesan Fire was too low; the Racing Post definitely seems to think so and I'm inclined to agree.

As for the odds pts being too high which was alluded to earlier, I figure takeout in. I certainly wish it were the case where we could have only 4 horses below 15-1 but I'm afraid we'd need a takeout free world to have that happen.

Bullish: Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Musket Man, Regal Ransom
Bearish: Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy and any other synth specialist
neutral: I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

[philcski]

Originally Posted by JJP

POTN could go off lower than Friesan Fire. But he shouldn't. What has he proven on real dirt? We've seen that synthetic form is just not representative of real dirt form and must always be viewed skeptically. There also has been speculation that the Beyer figure for Friesan Fire was too low; the Racing Post definitely seems to think so and I'm inclined to agree.

As for the odds pts being too high which was alluded to earlier, I figure takeout in. I certainly wish it were the case where we could have only 4 horses below 15-1 but I'm afraid we'd need a takeout free world to have that happen.

Bullish: Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Musket Man, Regal Ransom
Bearish: Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy and any other synth specialist
neutral: I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

I agree with you on POTN vs. FF. I wouldn't be surprised if POTN goes off as the 3rd choice. No thanks at that price.

As for making the line- I figured takeout in as well- your line has a takeout of about 30%, this game is tough enough at 16%

The easiest way to figure it is start with $120 and distribute it such that you pay out $100 (for a 16% takeout.) So if you think IWR will be favored at 3-1, he will have $25 on his nose ($25 original returned plus $75 paid in 3/1 winnings). Next if you think Dunkirk will be 9/2, that means he'll have $18.20 on his nose ($18.20 plus $81.80 in 9/2 winnings.) Work iteratively down till you've spent all the money. Then you can go back and adjust up or down when you see your first cut.

[tjfla]

Desert Party will start at about 20/1 and end up like 10/1. He seems like the Wise Guy Horse.

Race Odds not opening

Under 5/1-POTN and IWR
6-1-15/1-Dunkirk,Friesen Fire,Desert Party
15-1-25-1- Chocolate Candy,GQ,Musket Man,Regal Ransom,Papa Clem

It looks like 5 horses at 15/1 or under with 1 the wise guy horse and 2 others shaky as hell to me.

Needless to say GREAT ODDS for someone to hit the board that should'nt. I don't mind if POTN is the 2nd or 3rd choice,even tho he is training good at CD I do not think he has what it takes and hope the public bets him down more.

IWR is the horse I am split on comes from the synth but has shown he can run on the dirt.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

As for making the line- I figured takeout in as well- your line has a takeout of about 30%, this game is tough enough at 16%

The easiest way to figure it is start with $120 and distribute it such that you pay out $100 (for a 16% takeout.) So if you think IWR will be favored at 3-1, he will have $25 on his nose ($25 original returned plus $75 paid in 3/1 winnings). Next if you think Dunkirk will be 9/2, that means he'll have $18.20 on his nose ($18.20 plus $81.80 in 9/2 winnings.) Work iteratively down till you've spent all the money. Then you can go back and adjust up or down when you see your first cut.

Beg to differ, Phil! That's the 2nd easiest way. The easiest way is to use my free "Line Adjuster" Excel sheet. Put in your first guess at the odds for each horse and the sheet adjusts the line to any specified takeout.

Nice work on your line.

--Dunbar

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Beg to differ, Phil! That's the 2nd easiest way. The easiest way is to use my free "Line Adjuster" Excel sheet. Put in your first guess at the odds for each horse and the sheet adjusts the line to any specified takeout.

Nice work on your line.

--Dunbar

This is the yearly plug for this file. Every time it gets brought up, I feel the need to remind people how great it is. I got it from Dunbar ages ago, and it's still on my computer desktop and I use it frequently. I even used it for official business the couple times I made Arlington Park's ML when my boss was unavailable.

Best spreadsheet EVER....for real. Great way of helping create morning-lines and fair odds lines.

Anyone serious about it should get a copy.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

This is the yearly plug for this file. Every time it gets brought up, I feel the need to remind people how great it is. I got it from Dunbar ages ago, and it's still on my computer desktop and I use it frequently. I even used it for official business the couple times I made Arlington Park's ML when my boss was unavailable.

Best spreadsheet EVER....for real. Great way of helping create morning-lines and fair odds lines.

Anyone serious about it should get a copy.

Wow, Brian, thanks! Much appreciated!

--Dunbar