Belmont Beyers

[hockey2315]

For those of you who still believe. . .

Summer Bird - 100 (obviously a little low for the Belmont, but not surprising and probably an impossible fig to come up with because of the lack of other routes on the card).

Diamondrella - 104 - turf fig so it doesn't really matter, but pretty high. This horse gave me my worst beat of 2008 when she blew it in the stretch first out for Penna at 23-1. Six straight wins since then. Penna's incredible.

Gio Ponti - 106 - Guess he's just as good (if not better) at 10F as he is at 8.


Gabby's Golden Gal - 96 - loose lead on a fast track. The connections have Dream Play to thank in my opinion.

Munnings - 110 - Huge performance - Phil wasn't beating him, but maybe he would've made it interesting had he had a better trip. Munnings was also flattered by Just Ben earlier on the card, but I have some doubts about that one's performance.

Fabulous Strike - 111 - total freak and I've always thought he had an interesting stride.

Eldaafer got a 100 for his Brooklyn win in the slop. . .



Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*True North (Bel): Fabulous Strike (T. Beattie/R. Dominguez) - 111
*Woody Stephens (Bel): Munnings (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 110

*Longfellow (Mth): Go Go Shoot (B. Levine/E. Castro) - 109
*Woodford Reserve Manhattan (Bel): Gio Ponti (C. Clement/G. Gomez) - 106
*Hill Prince (Bel): Despite the Odds (M. Trombetta/J. Rose) - 104
*Just a Game (Bel): Diamondrella - GB (A. Penna Jr./R. Maragh) - 104
*Karl Boyes Memorial Northwestern Pa. (PID): Street Magician (M. Trombetta/J. Pimentel) - 102
*Charles Whittingham Memorial (Hol): Midships (R. Frankel/V. Espinoza) - 101
*Brooklyn (Bel): Eldaafer (D. Alvarado/J. Chavez) - 100
*Belmont (Bel): Summer Bird (T. Ice/K. Desormeaux) - 100

*Woodbine Oaks (Hol): Milwaukee Appeal (S. Fairlie/S. Elliott) - 99
*Ack Ack (Hol): Noble Court (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) - 99
*Rumson (Mth): Great Love (J. Robb/J. Bravo) - 98
*Satin and Lace (PID): Libor Lady (M. Pino/M. Pino) - 97
*Redondo Beach (Hol): Tuscan Evening - Ire (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano) - 97
*Hollywood Oaks (Hol): Carlsbad (J. Mullins/T. Baze) - 96
*Acorn (Bel): Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/J. Castellano) - 96
*Tin Man (AP): Silverfoot (D. Stewart/C. Emigh) - 96
*Eatontown (Mth): All Is Vanity - Fr (C. Clement/J. Bravo) - 95
*Early Times Mint Julep (CD): Acoma (D. Carroll/C. Lanerie) - 94
*Eclipse (WO): Ice Bear (M. Benson/C. Sutherland) - 94
*Victoria Park (WO): Awesome Rhythm (J. Ross/J. McAleney) - 93
*Steady Growth (WO): Michael's Bad Boy (N. Gonzalez/E. Da Silva) - 93
*Washington State Legislators (EmD): Gadget Queen (B. Wright/R. Frazier) - 93
*John Longden 6000 (Hst): Bank Emblem (R. Gilker/F. Fuentes) - 92
*Slipton Fell (Mnr): Crimson Comic (M. Shuman/R. Feliciano) - 92
*Senate Appointee (Hst): Wind Storm (D. Forster/R. Hamel) - 91
*Alyssum (Bel): Malibu Beach (S. Klesaris/R. Dominguez) - 90
*Brooks Fields (Cby): Spider Power - Ire (M. Biehler/J. Ferrer) - 90

*Manhattan Beach (Hol): Strawberry Tart (J. Bonde/M. Garcia) - 88
*Panthers (PrM): Don'ttalktome (J. Hicklin/T. Thompson) - 87
*Liberada (Crc): Eclisse - Fr (M. Wolfson/J. Santiago) - 87
*Coin Collector (CT): Gabriel's Smile (R. Schiano-Dicola/L. Reynolds) - 87
*Prairie Mile (PrM): Proceed Bee (S. Becker/T. Thompson) - 86
*Glowing Honor (Bel): J Z Warrior (W. Mott/J. Velazquez) - 85
*Free Press (AsD): Monsoon Rain (C. Torevell/C. Marquez) - 85
*Alywow (WO): Woodsmoke (M. Keogh/T. Pizarro) - 85
*John D. Marsh (Cnl): Hugo (H. Smith/R. Homeister Jr.) - 84
*Hoist Her Flag (Cby): Adhsilver (G. Scherer/T. Hebert) - 81
*Nicoles Dream (AP): Taylor Madison (M. Dini/J. Campbell) - 81
*President's (NP): Robo Willie (G. Tracy/R. Walcott) - 80

*Candy Eclair (Mth): Reata's Quik Punch (J. Orseno/C. Marquez Jr.) - 79
*Its Binn Too Long (CT): Beware of the Bop (T. Grams/L. Reynolds) - 77
*Willard L. Proctor Memorial (Hol): Classical Slew (D. O'Neill/M. Baze) - 75
*Golden Boy (AsD): Theglow (C. Torevell/R. Singh) - 75
*Oakley (Cnl): Trophy Collector (R. Jenkins/E. Camacho) - 75
*TTA Sales Futurity (fillies) (LS): Tin Top Cat (W. Calhoun/R. Zimmerman) - 73

[dalakhani]

Did you think the track was different for the race that just Ben won? It seemed to me that both tracks dried significantly as the day went on. The turf track that Pennington won on was not the same track that seemed to favor closers later on in the day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Did you think the track was different for the race that just Ben won? It seemed to me that both tracks dried significantly as the day went on. The turf track that Pennington won on was not the same track that seemed to favor closers later on in the day.

What makes you think the 4 turf races weren't honestly run? Pennington won because he walked on the lead and the runner-up received an embarassingly poor ride.

Diamondrella won because she got a very good ride and a great pace setup and the favorite was taken to what was probably the worst part of the course. Gio Ponti was able to win from way back because he's good and the race featured a particularly sharp pace. The horses that turned for home 1-2are also known for having distance limitations.

Just Ben was very sharp and if anything, the main track may have become a bit more even as it dried out. However, Just Ben was capable of doing something like that, he had shown the ability at GP.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

For those of you who still believe. . .

Munnings - 110 - Huge performance - Phil wasn't beating him, but maybe he would've made it interesting had he had a better trip. Munnings was also flattered by Just Ben earlier on the card, but I have some doubts about that one's performance.

Interesting, I thought he ran lights out & certainly well within himself. I would be curious what others thought of his performance. Munnings race was not really a surprise given the hints he gave in his 'prep' race at CD. I would think his next race is one you have to try to beat him off of that top. This Sat was definitely the time to be on him.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Just Ben was very sharp and if anything, the main track may have become a bit more even as it dried out. However, Just Ben was capable of doing something like that, he had shown the ability at GP.

NT

Agreed.

[philcski]

Obviously they split the variant again multiple times (unnecessarily in my opinion), had they not the differential between Munnings and Just Ben would have been 6 points, Convocation and Gabby's Golden Gal 6 points, and the Fab Strike race should have been 8 points higher. What good are these numbers the way they're doing things these days??

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What makes you think the 4 turf races weren't honestly run? Pennington won because he walked on the lead and the runner-up received an embarassingly poor ride.

Diamondrella won because she got a very good ride and a great pace setup and the favorite was taken to what was probably the worst part of the course. Gio Ponti was able to win from way back because he's good and the race featured a particularly sharp pace. The horses that turned for home 1-2are also known for having distance limitations.

Just Ben was very sharp and if anything, the main track may have become a bit more even as it dried out. However, Just Ben was capable of doing something like that, he had shown the ability at GP.

NT

Thanks. I think i have to watch the races again. It seemed from just watching the pennington race that it was favoring speed because it seemed like no horses were making up any ground at all.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thanks. I think i have to watch the races again. It seemed from just watching the pennington race that it was favoring speed because it seemed like no horses were making up any ground at all.

That race featured, and I'm as big a Desormeaux detractor as any, an absolutely flawless ride. He did an excellent job taking the initiative and then once in front he did his job perfectly. It also illustrated something that NY racing fans are seeing far too often and that's that Edgar Prado (who was hesitant out of the gate to begin with) is getting even worse. He never made any effort to put Radical Sabbatical into the race, even with his far outside post. That enabled KD to take the lead, coast, and have plenty left, with some thanks to Garcia for his masterful display on Expansion.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

I always whine about beyers, but I am going to whine about 'em again.

For the Belmont, I believe the race should have been between 105-110.
2:27.54

1. - the primary reason being the way the race was ran.
The Beyer is a final time speed figure. Often enough we see paceless Belmonts in which the riders attempt to save plenty for the finish. Not this time. We witnessed as fast a pace as you would want for 12 furlong 3yos. By running fast early they almost guaranteed a fast final time comparitive to other historical Belmonts.

2. - Comparing a recent historical Belmont = Rags to Riches and Curlin got a 107 beyer in their SLOW 2:28.75 race. Even Beyer would admit that the R2R Belmont was so slow because of the way the pace was run. The finish in that race was in fact very very fast. However a 107 for that race is a perversion of a pure final time figure into the realm of "performance figures" which the Beyer is not. 2009 Belmont's track was much faster but the track speed is NOT the primary cause of that difference. Whether or not 107 was wayyy too high for R2R's Belmont, Summer Bird should have scored higher than R2R.


You have to fudge a figure here and it has to be done with common sense, and historical comparison.
This was a relatively fast Belmont. No doubt about it. I don't care what Summer Bird got in the past.
You have to start with a very high Beyer figure and then lower it according to how fast the track was.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I always whine about beyers, but I am going to whine about 'em again.

For the Belmont, I believe the race should have been between 105-110.
2:27.54

1. - the primary reason being the way the race was ran.
The Beyer is a final time speed figure. Often enough we see paceless Belmonts in which the riders attempt to save plenty for the finish. Not this time. We witnessed as fast a pace as you would want for 12 furlong 3yos. By running fast early they almost guaranteed a fast final time comparitive to other historical Belmonts.

2. - Comparing a recent historical Belmont = Rags to Riches and Curlin got a 107 beyer in their SLOW 2:28.75 race. Even Beyer would admit that the R2R Belmont was so slow because of the way the pace was run. The finish in that race was in fact very very fast. However a 107 for that race is a perversion of a pure final time figure into the realm of "performance figures" which the Beyer is not. 2009 Belmont's track was much faster but the track speed is NOT the primary cause of that difference. Whether or not 107 was wayyy too high for R2R's Belmont, Summer Bird should have scored higher than R2R.


You have to fudge a figure here and it has to be done with common sense, and historical comparison.
This was a relatively fast Belmont. No doubt about it. I don't care what Summer Bird got in the past.
You have to start with a very high Beyer figure and then lower it according to how fast the track was.

So do you also believe that Jazil should have got about a 110 figure in his Belmont? He ran almost the same time as Summer Bird and I don't think the track was anywhere near as fast.

Beyers at seldom run distances are largely useless and every dirt Beyer has the chance it will be heavily impacted by pace. The 100 for this year is probably right while the higher figure for Rags and Curlin was one that was fudged to account for the slow pace (which is something that should either be consistently done or never done rather than done selectively).

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you also believe that Jazil should have got about a 110 figure in his Belmont? He ran almost the same time as Summer Bird and I don't think the track was anywhere near as fast.

Beyers at seldom run distances are largely useless and every dirt Beyer has the chance it will be heavily impacted by pace. The 100 for this year is probably right while the higher figure for Rags and Curlin was one that was fudged to account for the slow pace (which is something that should either be consistently done or never done rather than done selectively).

technically, yea.
I'd like to see a consistent approach where the horse's name is meaningless. The only thing that should matter is the final time, and how fast the track was playing.

So we should be able to compare historical belmonts if we have an accurate measure of how fast the track was each time.

100 might actually be one of the more accurate beyer scores for recent Belmonts, but then a race like R2R's should receive around a 95...
I don't believe in adjusting Beyers for pace at all.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

technically, yea.
I'd like to see a consistent approach where the horse's name is meaningless. The only thing that should matter is the final time, and how fast the track was playing.

So we should be able to compare historical belmonts if we have an accurate measure of how fast the track was each time.

100 might actually be one of the more accurate beyer scores for recent Belmonts, but then a race like R2R's should receive around a 95...
I don't believe in adjusting Beyers for pace at all.

Then I pretty much agree with you.

[nomad]

I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.

Does that make sense?

[King Glorious]

My biggest problem with them is that they are adjusted to fit. I've always felt that a race should be left alone to tell whatever story it tells, not what story the figure maker wants to believe it should tell. One of the things I don't understand is that figure makers feel like a number should fit in with a certain pattern a horse may have. I think that's very dangerous to do because the objective of a horse is not the same everytime. Take 2yo/3yo during the winter and into the spring. Often, in each new race, they are taking on new challenges. A horse might run his first race of the year at 7f around one-turn and earn a 95. His second race might be his first try at 8.5f or his first try at two-turns and he might be shipping and running on a new surface. Also, that first race, the trainer might only have him at 70% cranked because he doesn't want him peaking too early but this race he's now at about 80-85% tightened. How can an accurate projection be made on what he's supposed to do? Or it could be a horse that has run 100-110 for five straight races, all sprints, being stretched out for the first time. He then runs a figure of 85 going 9f. How does anyone know that he didn't run his race? How does anyone know what his normal 9f figure would be? How can you project accurately? Why should you expect the same effort in the Jim Dandy that you do in the Travers? Why should you expect the same effort in the Fountain of Youth that you get in the Florida Derby? That's never made sense to me.

[letswastemoney]

maybe it's all a scam to make people bet the wrong horses, so that the beyer figure makers can rake in all the real money j/k

[Kasept]

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*True North (Bel): Fabulous Strike (T. Beattie/R. Dominguez) - 111
*Woody Stephens (Bel): Munnings (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 110

*Longfellow (Mth): Go Go Shoot (B. Levine/E. Castro) - 109
*Woodford Reserve Manhattan (Bel): Gio Ponti (C. Clement/G. Gomez) - 106
*Hill Prince (Bel): Despite the Odds (M. Trombetta/J. Rose) - 104
*Just a Game (Bel): Diamondrella - GB (A. Penna Jr./R. Maragh) - 104
*Karl Boyes Memorial Northwestern Pa. (PID): Street Magician (M. Trombetta/J. Pimentel) - 102
*Charles Whittingham Memorial (Hol): Midships (R. Frankel/V. Espinoza) - 101
*Brooklyn (Bel): Eldaafer (D. Alvarado/J. Chavez) - 100
*Belmont (Bel): Summer Bird (T. Ice/K. Desormeaux) - 100

*Woodbine Oaks (Hol): Milwaukee Appeal (S. Fairlie/S. Elliott) - 99
*Ack Ack (Hol): Noble Court (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) - 99
*Rumson (Mth): Great Love (J. Robb/J. Bravo) - 98
*Satin and Lace (PID): Libor Lady (M. Pino/M. Pino) - 97
*Redondo Beach (Hol): Tuscan Evening - Ire (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano) - 97
*Hollywood Oaks (Hol): Carlsbad (J. Mullins/T. Baze) - 96
*Acorn (Bel): Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/J. Castellano) - 96
*Tin Man (AP): Silverfoot (D. Stewart/C. Emigh) - 96
*Eatontown (Mth): All Is Vanity - Fr (C. Clement/J. Bravo) - 95
*Early Times Mint Julep (CD): Acoma (D. Carroll/C. Lanerie) - 94
*Eclipse (WO): Ice Bear (M. Benson/C. Sutherland) - 94
*Victoria Park (WO): Awesome Rhythm (J. Ross/J. McAleney) - 93
*Steady Growth (WO): Michael's Bad Boy (N. Gonzalez/E. Da Silva) - 93
*Washington State Legislators (EmD): Gadget Queen (B. Wright/R. Frazier) - 93
*John Longden 6000 (Hst): Bank Emblem (R. Gilker/F. Fuentes) - 92
*Slipton Fell (Mnr): Crimson Comic (M. Shuman/R. Feliciano) - 92
*Senate Appointee (Hst): Wind Storm (D. Forster/R. Hamel) - 91
*Alyssum (Bel): Malibu Beach (S. Klesaris/R. Dominguez) - 90
*Brooks Fields (Cby): Spider Power - Ire (M. Biehler/J. Ferrer) - 90

*Manhattan Beach (Hol): Strawberry Tart (J. Bonde/M. Garcia) - 88
*Panthers (PrM): Don'ttalktome (J. Hicklin/T. Thompson) - 87
*Liberada (Crc): Eclisse - Fr (M. Wolfson/J. Santiago) - 87
*Coin Collector (CT): Gabriel's Smile (R. Schiano-Dicola/L. Reynolds) - 87
*Prairie Mile (PrM): Proceed Bee (S. Becker/T. Thompson) - 86
*Glowing Honor (Bel): J Z Warrior (W. Mott/J. Velazquez) - 85
*Free Press (AsD): Monsoon Rain (C. Torevell/C. Marquez) - 85
*Alywow (WO): Woodsmoke (M. Keogh/T. Pizarro) - 85
*John D. Marsh (Cnl): Hugo (H. Smith/R. Homeister Jr.) - 84
*Hoist Her Flag (Cby): Adhsilver (G. Scherer/T. Hebert) - 81
*Nicoles Dream (AP): Taylor Madison (M. Dini/J. Campbell) - 81
*President's (NP): Robo Willie (G. Tracy/R. Walcott) - 80

*Candy Eclair (Mth): Reata's Quik Punch (J. Orseno/C. Marquez Jr.) - 79
*Its Binn Too Long (CT): Beware of the Bop (T. Grams/L. Reynolds) - 77
*Willard L. Proctor Memorial (Hol): Classical Slew (D. O'Neill/M. Baze) - 75
*Golden Boy (AsD): Theglow (C. Torevell/R. Singh) - 75
*Oakley (Cnl): Trophy Collector (R. Jenkins/E. Camacho) - 75
*TTA Sales Futurity (fillies) (LS): Tin Top Cat (W. Calhoun/R. Zimmerman) - 73

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My biggest problem with them is that they are adjusted to fit. I've always felt that a race should be left alone to tell whatever story it tells, not what story the figure maker wants to believe it should tell. One of the things I don't understand is that figure makers feel like a number should fit in with a certain pattern a horse may have. I think that's very dangerous to do because the objective of a horse is not the same everytime. Take 2yo/3yo during the winter and into the spring. Often, in each new race, they are taking on new challenges. A horse might run his first race of the year at 7f around one-turn and earn a 95. His second race might be his first try at 8.5f or his first try at two-turns and he might be shipping and running on a new surface. Also, that first race, the trainer might only have him at 70% cranked because he doesn't want him peaking too early but this race he's now at about 80-85% tightened. How can an accurate projection be made on what he's supposed to do? Or it could be a horse that has run 100-110 for five straight races, all sprints, being stretched out for the first time. He then runs a figure of 85 going 9f. How does anyone know that he didn't run his race? How does anyone know what his normal 9f figure would be? How can you project accurately? Why should you expect the same effort in the Jim Dandy that you do in the Travers? Why should you expect the same effort in the Fountain of Youth that you get in the Florida Derby? That's never made sense to me.

KG... Honestly, you don't understand what figure-making is all about or how it works based on this... There are multiple horses in a race and multiple races on a card. The figures aren't made in an isolated fashion based on the performance of one horse in one race in a vacuum. They're formulated on the day's racing in its' entirity.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by nomad

I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.

Does that make sense?

Where has Beyer Associates ever claimed that the figures 'give you a winner' a third of the time or more?

Figures are a tool to provide at a glance the comparative speed of horses at different tracks, at different distances. Period. How you utilize them in your capping is your business. Hell, Beyer himself politely argued with me last week on ATR when I said there are patterns I can gleen from his figures to project performance.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by nomad

I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.

Does that make sense?

I think that you're skipping a step here. Favorites win 1/3 of the time as everybody knows. Due to the widespread availability of Beyer numbers, horses that have run the highest figure on the page of PP's, or their personal best figure in their last race, tend to become favorites. So it's not that "Beyer claims 1/3 winners", it's more like "The best Beyer pick, as a favorite, wins 1/3 of the time."

[joeydb]

Hey Steve, is there a page we can get to that has all the Beyers from the race (not just the winner), like in a "results chart" format?