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#1
07-25-2009, 06:58 AM
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7/25: BEL (P4); DMR (P6); CBY (Crown)
Glaring omission of Frank Martin Flying Zee winner in Belmont nightcap Friday cost me a shockingly overlaid $786.50 P4 payoff. Patron Saint didn't look any better than several when capping initially, but not getting a chance to ammend the plays post-scratches/changes hurt, as Sebastian Morales had been booted in favor of Ramon Dominguez... a significant upgrade. Still not sure why the sequence, with $7.90, $7.10, $10.80 and $4.40 had such inflated will pays. Good news on the day were back to back exotics sweeps mid-card including the $200 tri and $380 super in the 7th.
Later at Del Mar, took deflating beat at the wire on 15-1 single Ale's Pride to squash P6 C/O try and sizeable win bet. Discussed at length with National Turf's Bob Selvin on "At the Races" Friday, Ale's Pride worked a little too hard to make the lead to have enough in the defining stages. This was a heartbreaker with a $33.20 win price hinged on the outcome. Caught three winners in the sequence after that, but no one negotiated the sextet successfully and a $382,000 carry is available today. Expect a $2,000.000 pot for the good skien today. Hope you did OK Friday and are ready for a fun Saturday that includes Dee Tee running Aldebutante and Kickin N Screamin at Arlington, the Belmont P4, Del Mar C/O and Claiming Crown at Canterbury! BELMONT PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Sydney Road 8-1 WON Next Best: #11 New Yawker 3-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Prince Dubai 20-1 4th Super Add: #4 Mr. Petersson 12-1 6th 8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #1 Stormy Success 6-1 5th Most Likely: #7 Extra Zip 8-5 WON Next Best: #9 Gold Pageantry 6-1 9th Super Add: #2 SCR 9th: 93rd Copaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Wynning Ride 8-1 3rd Most Likely: #1 Livin Lovin 3-1 5th Next Best: #8 Funny Moon 5-2 WON Super Add: #3 Don't Forget Gil 15-1 2nd 10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super) Most Likely: #2 Fair Catch 5-2 4th Next Best: #1 Winloc's Big D 3-1 7th Best Value: #10 Donquityerdayjob 8-1 5th Super Add: #8 New York Bobby 8-1 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 7: 10-11 8: 1-7 9: ALL 3 10: 1-2 2x2x8x2 = $64 DEL MAR PRE-SCRATCHES 5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Terrific and challenging ALW to start P6 with many impossible to toss.. Most Likely: #4 Great Siege 8-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Trumpet Player Jay 15-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Dehere Again 7-2 7th Super Add: #8 Fiery Trippi 12-1 10th 6th: 24th Fleet Treat (R), Cal-bred 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 ULTRA BLEND 7-2 Best Value: #7 Pretty Unusual 10-1 Next Best: #3 Century Park 5-1 Super Add: #8 Suacey Evening 5-2 7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Brutally difficult set of nicely-bred and well-meant looking babies.. Most Likely: #10 Tiny Woods 5-1 Best Value: #2 Majestic Peak 8-1 Next Best: #8 Sidney's Candy 8-1 Super Add: #11 Wings of Sound 12-1 8th: 36th Eddie Read (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Monterey Jazz 2-1 Best Value: #7 Richard's Kid 20-1 Next Best: #4 Thorn Song 8-1 Super Add: #3 Global Hunter 12-1 9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Bet On Victor 3-1 Best Value: #1 Spirit of Cochise 12-1 Next Best: #7 Position A 6-1 Super Add: #6 Best Dressed 12-1 10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #10 Quality Plus 2-1 Best Value: #6 Class Dismissed 12-1 Next Best: #5 Big Mahogany 7-2 Exotics Use: #14 (AE) Barney Bass 5-1 Super Add: #4 Bonkersforbinkers 10-1 $200 P6 Play: 5: 1-3-4-7-8-10 6: 6 7: 2-8-10-11 8: 1 9: 1-2-6-7 10: 10 6x1x4x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-4-7-8-10-11 8: 1 9: 1-2-6-7 10: 5-6-10 6x1x4x3 = $72 CANTERBURY PRE-SCRATCHES 3rd: CC Iron Horse, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Calm and Collected 7-2 2nd Best Value: #2 Bright Hall 4-1 WON Next Best: #4 Mr. Meso 3-1 6th Super Add: #7 Mr. Grumpy Stripes 10-1 5th 4th: CC Tiara, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3) Most Likely: #1 Love to Tell 2-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Mizzcan'tbewrong 7-2 WON Next Best: #6 R Vicarious Girl 3-1 4th 5th: CC Rapid Transit, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #1 Grand Traverse 2-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Pete's Pride 6-1 6th Next Best: #2 Max Ahead 5-2 5th Super Add: #6 All Joking Aside 5-1 4th 6th: CC Express, 3+, 6f (P3, Super) #8 Ready's Rocket a major reaction candidate.. Cover in P4 but bet against within race.. Most Likely: #9 Chasing the Prize 7-2 WON Best Value: #10 Mojito Man 10-1 10th Next Best: #2 Norjac 4-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Jacob's Run 12-1 6th 7th: CC Glass Slipper, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super) Most Likely: #7 Met a Miner 3-1 9th Best Value: #3 Gatorize 5-1 4th Next Best: #4 Miranda Diane 4-1 6th Super Add: #1 Thunder and Belle 6-1 2nd 8th: CC Emerald, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super) Best Value: #3 Hard Top 10-1 2nd Most Likely: #6 Gran Estreno 4-1 WON Next Best: #7 T Harry 12-1 Super Add: #12 Spicy Dubai 12-1 <$75 P4 Play: 5: 1-2-4 6: 2-8-9-10 7: 3-4-7 8: 3-6-7-12 3x4x3x4 - 144 x .50 = $72 9th: CC Jewel, 3+, 9f (DD, P3) Small field but a super competitive race.. Most Likely: #2 Furthest Land 5-2 Best Value: #3 Repenting 8-1 Next Best: #6 Glamour Guy 7-2 10th: Lady Canterbury, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Euphony 9-5 2nd Best Value: #6 Adhsilver 6-1 Next Best: #4 Happiness Is 7-2 WON Super Add: #7 Lady Carlock 4-1 3rd Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-25-2009 at 07:26 PM. 
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#3
07-25-2009, 08:26 AM
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Pick4 payoffs
Not sure if this is the case in the Belmont late Pick 4 yesterday but with the scratch of the #2 in the 8th after the P4 had started did all those P4 tickets including the #2 move to the post time favorite #5 in the 8th (which didn't win)? Is this why the prices seemed inflated for a winning Pick 4 ticket?
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#4
07-25-2009, 08:30 AM
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Quote:
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#5
07-25-2009, 10:24 AM
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Quote:
__________________
Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed
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#7
07-25-2009, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
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#9
07-25-2009, 05:50 PM
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j,
Thx! Felt the board was going to be screwy in there. Anyone that listened to Dasilva and I talk about the Oaks yesterday should have blown that triple apart. And thanks juice for the heads up on MontJazz. Just back from Saratoga working on the Barbecue. Hope everyone is doing well...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#11
07-25-2009, 06:44 PM
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Looks like the Del Mar Pick 6 pool is over $1.2 million with 20 minutes before post.
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#12
07-25-2009, 07:26 PM
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Ooof. That was tough...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#17
07-25-2009, 11:38 PM
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Thanks Steve! I played it at DMR - made me look like a hero in from of GF 
__________________
We've Gone Delirious
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