8/5: Saratoga (Day 7/De La Rose)

[Kasept]

Ended Spa Week 1 on a very high note as nearly everything in the first three quarters of the card went my way. Opener produced $414 super before the 2nd delivered the $75 exacta and $300 tri. In the third, Tagg's Overlap might have been small in stature, but was big on the board ($23.20) with the $257 P3 a nice score an hour into the day.

Sheppard's Sermon of Love wasn't in my selections directly, but was a 'must include' on the P4 play which came in for $1,434 when the quad's single (Romans' Tapitsfly) romped home. That 'swept clean' the eight P4 plays of the meet's first six days ($576 invested) and opened a very comfortable profit buffer for the first week.

The message from Monday and Week 1 overall is that despite the tricky reads on the Spa slate, staying the course always pays off... If your handicapping is solid, the horses will run 'your way' and you will get paid for your opinion. At Saratoga, sometimes it takes a 5 days and sometimes it takes 5 weeks, but if you have the bankroll and patience, you will score. Hope you did well Monday and are ready for Week 2 of Saratoga!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Madison Avenue 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Driven by Seattle 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1e Contessa entry 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Touch of Perfection 7-2 4th


2nd: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Apple Grove 9-2 8th
Next Best: #1 Ten Carrot Nikki 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Cash Value 8-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Badgette 20-1 4th


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Abundantia 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Catnandu 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Mott entry 9-5 2nd/6th
Exotics Use: #2 Paracaidas 7-2 WON


4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Very interesting race with some well bred 2yo's going two turns on the lawn.. Shug's Precipice Trail, half to Carriage Trail, debuts here, and Trombetta stretches out Dixie Chatter sib Novel Notion (#11-AE, 9-2).. Many of the firsters have dams or siblings that were zippy on the grass, and while I'm siding with those that have already had afternoon spins, be cognizant of the numbers debuting from Mott, Weaver (AE) and Pletcher..

Best Value: #8 Paddy O'Prado 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Dean's Kitten 3-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Lucky Lead 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Mill Pond 20-1 8th


5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Submerge 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Eager Emma 6-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Rosie's Promises 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Two Moons 6-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4
3: 1-3-5
4: 5-8-10
5: 2-4-6-9

2x3x3x4 = $72


6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Too Amenable 3-5 WON
Best Value: #5 One Diamond 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Marscaponi 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 (AE) SCR


7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Easy Ashley 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Lost Without You 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #9 Seminole Lass 12-1 5th


8th: De La Rose (L), F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #2e Godolphin-Darley entry 6-5 WON/5th
Best Value: #5 Modern Look 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1e Haras Santa Maria de Araras entry 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 (AE) SCR


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Fateh Field 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Mesa Sunrise 9-2 7th
Best Vaue: #9 SCR
Super Add: #7 Echo in Eternity 6-1 6th


$150 P6 Play:

4: 5-8
5: 2-4-6-9
6: 10
7: 5-7-9
8: 1-2-5
9: 10

2x4x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (5-6-10-5-2-5) 5 Correct Paid $37.40


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 10
7: 1-5-7-9
8: 1-2-5
9: 3-4-5-6-7-10

1x4x3x6 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (10-5-2-5) 4 Correct Paid $73.50


Good luck!
Steve

[Lava]

Race 1 $2 Pick 3
1)4
2)1,5,8
3)1,3

$12

Race 2 $1 Pick 4
2)1,5,8
3)1,3
4)5,8,10
5)2,4,9

$54

[atolunch]

Another day, another P4 nailed!!

Chalky, but, we can't control the payouts. Good capping is good capping.

Way to go Steve!

[tigerfan]

Agreed. Well done yet again, Steve.

Another P4.
5 of 6 on the P6.

And you did predict at the very end of ATR on Tuesday that prices would be hard to find on the Wednesday card.

Keep up the good work!

[Kasept]

Thx but this was a day where taking the time to lay out the TicketMaker plays pays off handsomely for you... I hope people are using it to build their plays as I simply don't have time to do it with the changes. P6 was utterly hittable and the core of the P4 had potential to be played for $5-$10. (At least that's how the most serious players go after them.)

The biggest congrats on the day deserve to go to Andy for tabbing the Roy Lerman (Essex Ferry) winner. That handed you the key to the $8,000 early P4.