10/24 (LRL): $300,000 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1)

[Kasept]

9th (5:07) Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G1)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Vineyard Haven Garcia Alan 116 L
2 Roaring Lion Trujillo E 118 LA
3 Ravalo Rose J 118 L
4 Fleet Valid Morales P 118 L
5 True Quality Lopez C C 118 LA
6 Peace Chant Chavez J F 118 L
7 Sacred Journey Cohen D 118 L
8 Saratoga Russell Hill C 118 LA
9 Ah Day Russell S 118 LA

[Gander]

What happened to Kodiak Kowboy and Fabulous Strike? Wasnt this supposed to have both of them? How disappointing to be left with this field.

[10 pnt move up]

Looks like a romp for Vineyard Haven, that last race looks totally legit.

[Gander]

I think Peace Chant runs big in here. I like the jockey change. Chavez rarely gets live horses in big races anymore. I wouldnt be surprised to see a good finish, maybe even the win.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Looks like a romp for Vineyard Haven, that last race looks totally legit.

Based on what? He was primed off the bench I can give you that, VH is a really good horse but I think he's a bet against tomorrow.
Other then CCMC no one has ran back to do a thing. CCMC race was a prep and on POLY.
Munnings ran like ****.
Flat Bold ran like ****.
Despite The Odds ran like ****.
Not For Silver ran pretty shitty IMO, and again that was on POLY.
Everyday Heros ran like ****.
Prince Joshua ran like ****.

Ok I get the winner came back and ran well, but there has not been one winner out of the Kings Bishop and the highest beyer has been a 103 over POLY, that number drops off to a 86 after CCMC. I thought a key race or legit race had to have at least 3-4 horses come back and run well, only 2 have came out of this to run at all, and really only 1 IMO.

Im betting this race tomorrow and Im betting Ravalo to win and using Ravalo and Peace Chant in the all stakes pick 3.
VH is a need the lead horse IMO and the rail should really hurt with at least 2-3 other horses have sub 21 speed for the opening quarter...
VH can win and I love Godolphin as much as anyone, but I get the feeling he wont tomorrow.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Based on what? He was primed off the bench I can give you that, VH is a really good horse but I think he's a bet against tomorrow.
Other then CCMC no one has ran back to do a thing. CCMC race was a prep and on POLY.
Munnings ran like ****.
Flat Bold ran like ****.
Despite The Odds ran like ****.
Not For Silver ran pretty shitty IMO, and again that was on POLY.
Everyday Heros ran like ****.
Prince Joshua ran like ****.

Ok I get the winner came back and ran well, but there has not been one winner out of the Kings Bishop and the highest beyer has been a 103 over POLY, that number drops off to a 86 after CCMC. I thought a key race or legit race had to have at least 3-4 horses come back and run well, only 2 have came out of this to run at all, and really only 1 IMO.

Im betting this race tomorrow and Im betting Ravalo to win and using Ravalo and Peace Chant in the all stakes pick 3.
VH is a need the lead horse IMO and the rail should really hurt with at least 2-3 other horses have sub 21 speed for the opening quarter...
VH can win and I love Godolphin as much as anyone, but I get the feeling he wont tomorrow.

I think you are wasting your money but good luck as I am not betting this race.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Peace Chant runs big in here. I like the jockey change. Chavez rarely gets live horses in big races anymore. I wouldnt be surprised to see a good finish, maybe even the win.

I agree.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

I agree.

I do to, he's one of only 2 I will be using in the picks. I doubt he will be much of a suprise though, GIANT MIDDLE MOVE IN LAST AND TONS OF SPEED TO SET THIS UP.

[ninetoone]

I like Ravalo & doubt he'll be 8-1...

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I like Ravalo & doubt he'll be 8-1...

I think we will get at least 6-1. VH should be around 4-5. Peace Chant should get bet, same with True Quality.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I do to, he's one of only 2 I will be using in the picks. I doubt he will be much of a suprise though, GIANT MIDDLE MOVE IN LAST AND TONS OF SPEED TO SET THIS UP.

You really need to chill out with the caps.

[Scav]

Saratoga Russell is a scratch

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Peace Chant runs big in here. I like the jockey change. Chavez rarely gets live horses in big races anymore. I wouldnt be surprised to see a good finish, maybe even the win.

what race has he won good enough to win this, if you are going with the fall apart scenario isnt a stronger closer like Ravalo a better play? (not that I think this scenario happens).

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Scav

Saratoga Russell is a scratch

That hurts my 2 a little. I still think there is enough speed though, CC will go.

[NTamm1215]

I hope the public goes nuts on Vineyard Haven as I think he's an incredibly beatable favorite. He only has one choice from that post and it's to go and I don't think he can stare Roaring Lion and/or True Quality in the eye and stay.

Ravalo is sharp right now and I think he'll be tough. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Ah Day get a piece.

NT

[Gander]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what race has he won good enough to win this, if you are going with the fall apart scenario isnt a stronger closer like Ravalo a better play? (not that I think this scenario happens).

I dont think Peace Chant is necessarily a closer. Hes usually shown pretty good speed to be very close to fast paces. He did take way back in his race at Turf Paradise and was lucky that the race completely fell apart, and stormed home to win. That was a fast enough race to win this, if the same scenario occured. Dpends on what the new trainer/jockey strategy is. I dont know if you can label him a closer off of 1 race. He was pretty close to that fast pace in the Forego and to me that was a complete throw out as it was his first one back off a long layoff. Hes clearly not the same horse he was in 07 but I dont think a win here is that far fetched. If you believe in trainer angles, this new trainer (Phipps) has a high win % with horses going first time for him. I dont know, not the worst stab in the world.

I also dont think Ravalo is that much of a closer either. Hes got pretty good speed to stay fairly close. Hes in awesome form and knows how to win, but these are much better horses than hes been beaten.

True Quality isnt in raging form either and he may go off 2nd choice in here. Why does this horse deserve such a high rating? Because he won 1 race at Laurel back when he was in really good form? As if the mere fact this race is at the same racetrack is going to bring him back to who he was?

[docicu3]

Warm and breezy here in Montgomery County Maryland at 9:20 AM, which may change before 5:09PM race time but at present it's a nice morning.

Steve D in Betting Thoro's in the 21st century talks about a conditioning bias that occurs from superior effort and gaining position on the turn in 6F and 7F races. The bulk of the field has worked or run at Laurel except VH.

Too often players who don't normally play Laurel regularly forget that home cooking is a big advantage here with works and races on this track seemingly an edge on big stakes days. 4 for 10 Roaring Lion ,the works of Rivalo over the Laurel quicksand and Ah Day's 8 for 14 at Laurel will likely be determining factors today.

Rose is having a wonderful fall as it seems everything he touches (NY,KY) recently is getting a picture taken. If VH wins I lose, but I'll take JR and Rivalo to gobble up VH during the long Laurel stretch run that is CD like in distance. VH is best on poly and will likely get an education today in the Dash.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by docicu3

VH is best on poly and will likely get an education today in the Dash.

VH has never run on poly to my knowledge.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Warm and breezy here in Montgomery County Maryland at 9:20 AM, which may change before 5:09PM race time but at present it's a nice morning.

Steve D in Betting Thoro's in the 21st century talks about a conditioning bias that occurs from superior effort and gaining position on the turn in 6F and 7F races. The bulk of the field has worked or run at Laurel except VH.

Too often players who don't normally play Laurel regularly forget that home cooking is a big advantage here with works and races on this track seemingly an edge on big stakes days. 4 for 10 Roaring Lion ,the works of Rivalo over the Laurel quicksand and Ah Day's 8 for 14 at Laurel will likely be determining factors today.

Rose is having a wonderful fall as it seems everything he touches (NY,KY) recently is getting a picture taken. If VH wins I lose, but I'll take JR and Rivalo to gobble up VH during the long Laurel stretch run that is CD like in distance. VH is best on poly and will likely get an education today in the Dash.

Jeremy Rose is also named to ride Fenway Faithful in today's 7th at Belmont. Thats kind of weird and would be hard for him to get to Laurel in the short time between when these races go off (4:07pm and 5:37 pm).

[Gander]

What an absolute horriffic beat if you needed Ravalo. Great race by the top 3 horses. Peace Chant looked like he may make late noise but the top 3 never stopped running. Fleet Valid sure has come a long way in a short amount of time.