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#1
10-27-2009, 06:52 PM
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Steve Asmussen in synthetic track stake races
Year - starts- wins - seconds - thirds - $2 ROI
2009 - 31-0-1-5 ($0.00) 2008 - 56-5-7-7 ($0.96) 2007 - 32-4-6-6 ($0.73) 2006 - 1-0-0-0 ($0.00) 2005 - 2-0-0-1 ($0.00) Lifetime total: 9 wins from 122 starts with a microscopic $0.63 ROI. With 2-year-olds: 7-for-58 With ages 3yo and up: 2-for-64 
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#2
10-27-2009, 07:01 PM
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Bang up stats.
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#3
10-27-2009, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
10-27-2009, 07:59 PM
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Quote:
0-for-14 at Keeneland 2-for-14 at Turfway 1-for-18 at Arlington 3-for-46 at Woodbine 0-for-4 at Santa Anita 1-for-4 at Hollywood 0-for-1 at Del Mar
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#5
10-27-2009, 08:13 PM
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PID horses are coming in and killing at Keeneland.
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#6
10-27-2009, 08:17 PM
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By the way ... I thought Amen Hallujah would win the Alcibiates because she had good figures at Arlington in a MCL race and opt Claimer when Asmussen trained her ... and she was going 1st time Dutrow.
Amen Hall ran 3rd at 10/1 odds despite being extremely wide on both turns. She was also a Montbrook out of Concorde's Tune stretching way out in distance and trying a route for the 1st time. Still... it was very puzzling to me how a horse can go from all Asmussen synthetic races ... to 1st time Dutrow and not run off the screen. But looking at Dutrow Jr.'s syn stats ... it's too early to tell, but he doesn't exactly seem to have the surface figured out himself. Rick Dutrow Jr. in all synthetic track races: 2009 - 6-0-1-2 ($0.00) 2008 - 6-0-1-0 ($0.00) 2007 - 22-1-2-7 ($0.24) 2006 - 5-1-0-1 ($0.76) 2005 - 0-0-0-0 (-----) Lifetime: 2-for-39 ($0.23 ROI) In stakes races: 10-0-0-2 His two 3rds coming with Amen Hall and Stardom Bound at Keeneland. Kip Deville only managed an 8th place finish in his one synthetic try in a race won by the immortal Buzzard's Bay.
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#7
10-27-2009, 08:49 PM
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Quote:
I think a combo of those two factors alone are the reason why a lot of people seem surprised yet again by how well the PID horses have performed at Keeneland. I think if you asked people which female horse ran the highest Beyer in a race at PID this year ... they'd have said Informed Decision. If you asked them which horse had the highest Beyer in the history of PID in a two-turn race. They'd have probably guessed at one of the winners of the Presque Isle Mile .. the 250K stake race for older males. Satan's Quick Chick was actually the answer for both questions though. She had a 100 in an alw race two starts back - Informed Decision only ran a 95 in her Masters win. The three Presque Isle Mile winners were Independant George (83), Summer Doldrums (94), and Cherokee Artist (95) She had that big PID number two starts back, and a big trip excuse last time, I'm not so sure you would have been able to get quite her 23/1 odds to win that Grade 2 at KEE last weekend if those races weren't at PID. There have been 5 triple digit Beyers in the history of PID racing. 1. 2007 Indian Chant (105) 5.5fs 2. 2007 Miss Macy Sue (103) 6fs 3. 2009 Street Magician (102) 5.5f 4. 2008 Fatal Bullet (100) 6fs 5. 2009 Satans Quick Chick (100) Mile and 70 yards Here are the top Beyers ever run at the major American synthetic tracks Santa Anita: Midnight Lute (112) Hollywood Park: Rail Trip (111) Del Mar: Tie between Zensational & Cost of Freedom (110) Turfway: Hard Spun (109) Keeneland: Silent Name (109) Arlington: Spotsgone (107) PID might be home to some of the most retarded executives in horse racing history ... but the racing is respectable thanks to the slots.
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#11
10-28-2009, 02:38 AM
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Overall on synthetic:
1,149-168-158-159 - ($1.25 ROI) - 14.6% wins Overall on dirt this decade: 15,050-3,548-2,658-2,182 - ($1.66 ROI) - 23.6% wins Here's a comparison of Asmussen's stats on Keeneland dirt versus Keeneland synthetic. Overall KEE Synthetic: 17-for-136 ($1.27 ROI) 12.5% wins Overall KEE Dirt: 63-for-327 ($1.84 ROI) 19.3% wins KEE 4.5 furlong 2yo races Synthetic: 10-for-40 ($2.52 ROI) 25.0% wins KEE 4.5 furlong 2yo races Dirt: 16-for-62 ($2.88 ROI) 25.8% wins KEE all races except 4.5f 2yo races Synthetic: 7-for-96 ($0.75 ROI) 7.3% KEE all races except 4.5f 2yo races Dirt: 47-for-265 ($1.60 ROI) 17.7% KEE all two-turn Synthetic races: 0-for-23 ($0.00 ROI) 0.0% wins KEE all two-turn Dirt races: 9-for-44 ($2.48 ROI) 20.5% wins I think this breakdown is very telling of what's going on. Asmussen remains very dominant and profitable on synthetic with his 2yo's going 4.5 furlongs at KEE. However, he struggles badly in the synthetic races beyond 4.5fs in distance.. and is downright terrible in the races a mile or further. He's never even won a race at Keeneland on synthetic beyond a mile. Synthetic racing is mostly about being able to finish. Go watch last years Breeders Cup Classic. Pay attention to how flat 4th place finisher Curlin was in the stretch run. Pay attention to how flat 11th place finisher Student Council was the entire race. Asmussen won 2 Horse of the Year's with Curlin on dirt. Student Council ran just 3 times on dirt for Asmussen .. a Grade 1 win in the Pimlico Special, a Grade 2 win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and a 112 Beyer 2nd place finish in the Whitney. Go watch last years Blue Grass Stakes. Pyro always comes with something late on dirt. He was a flat 10th by 11.5 lengths to Monba at even money.
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#13
10-29-2009, 06:00 PM
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No idea. Probably has to do with training routines and methods ... but you can't pretend to know for sure.
Jamie Ness struggled badly up here for almost half of the meet. He was complaining about the track. At about the exact point in which he told me he was going to change a bunch of things up ... within two or three weeks he was on fire ... and he was insanely strong by the end of the meet. It's not something like with a Glenn Wismer ... where you have a guy who has almost half of his horses sired by Cozar. Since Nov 20th of 2006 ... Wismer is 2-for-173 in dirt races. Since March 21st of 2007 ... he's 1-for-145 in dirt races. Since March 5th of 2008 ... he's 0-for-75 in dirt races. He's 37-for-175 on PID's synthetic track - that's 21.1% wins with a mind-boggling $3.45 ROI. On Keeneland's synthetic track, he's 2-for-16 with a $5.44 ROI. Forget about the extreme difference in win percentage ... the difference in ROI is insane. From $0.02 on dirt to $3.45 on PID synthetic. One's a 99% loss on investment .. the other is a 72.5% gain. - and you're talking about triple digit sample sizes with both.
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#14
10-29-2009, 06:12 PM
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Great stats as usual Doug... the Asmussen stuff is mind boggling. Been really doing well at KEE essentially tossing his horses in 90% of situations based on your data. For example his 2yo firster in the 6th went off favored, and while I didn't completely toss him I certainly weighted him less than had it been normal dirt and used the winner heavier. Incidentally, the winner will probably be a stakes winner and his 2nd place finisher will win next out at CD.
I'd love to know Lukas' stats on the synthetic. I can't remember the last time he had a winner on it. Hell, the last time he had a horse even run well on it I can think of was the Smarty Jones filly in the Alcibaides last year.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#16
10-30-2009, 11:09 AM
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Looking like a 2 man show in Tampa.
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#18
10-30-2009, 11:49 PM
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Real Dirt: 193 for 1,669 ($1.34 ROI) Fake Dirt: 31 for 264 ($1.50 ROI) Turf: 12 for 249 ($0.77 ROI) Looks like 11% on both dirt and syn - and 4% on turf. He's been statistically terrible on everything for a very long time in terms of ROI. One of the all-time great consistant bad ROI trainers.
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