Free25 pick for BC Friday!!!! Good Luck

[free25]

Breeders' Cup Marathon
1 3/4 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up*Stakes | Purse: $500,000
# Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Comments Med ML
1 Black Astor Solis A Lewis Lisa L 126 Is a stayer but class-wise is not up to par with these. L 12
2 Muhannak (IRE) Moore R L Beckett Ralph 126 Has been dismal since this race last year. No reason to expect a form reversal here… TOSS! L 12
3 Nite Light Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 Gets respect of the odds maker for the strength of his connections. Still seems a big underlay against the Euros L 4
4 Cloudy's Knight Homeister R B Jr Sheppard Jonathan E 126 Is an old class horse with lots of stamina from a barn that is known for training steeplechasers.. You know he can get the distance but can he possibly still have his class?? L 8
5 Father Time (GB) Ahern E Cecil Henry 122 Trained up to this well and has looked well in his gallops over the surface. His trainer is legendary and if Mastery is just a bit off, he can capitalize.. FTL 3
6 Mastery (GB) Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 122 Won the St. Leger, which is the equivalent of our Belmont Stakes, the 3rd jewel of the euro triple crown.. His presence in here will be tough to beat. Dettori won 2 BC races last year.. FTL 9-5
7 Sir Dave Rosario J Carava Jack 126 Class is a question on this one… L 20
8 Eldaafer Bejarano R Alvarado Diane 126 respect the jockey here but that’s all I can muster up on this one L 30
9 Man of Iron Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 From Ireland so you know he can probably stay the distance… has shown to be a bit below these over there though… FTL 8
10 Gangbuster Desormeaux K J Desormeaux J Keith 126 The Cajun brothers team up on this one but they seem to be dreaming way too big!!! L 30
Selections 5-6-4-9
The Play: Not really much value to be found in here. Leaning heavily toward the #6 and #5 as the only possible winners…use those two on top in you pick 3's. Box the exacta and use a small saver with #4 included on the bottom of your exactas.
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta* Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Daily Double / Pick 6 (Races 3-8) / BC Special H2H*


4th (1:08)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds*Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Comments Med. ML
1 Potosina Velazquez J R Shuman Mark 122
Was a winner last out at Bel but this class jump is a whole other story…likely a pace factor but no more… L 20
2 Elusive Galaxy (IRE) Bejarano R Cecil B D A 122
Was backed to favoritism in her last at Woodbine and failed. Was rated favorably overseas, so maybe better is forecast here. L 12
3 Smart Seattle Rose J Motion H Graham 122
Well bred filly by Smart Strike made a decent impression this week in the mornings but I think she has her work cut out here… L 8
4 Rose Catherine Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 122 Exploded when switched to the turf in her last at Bel. Not sure if a maiden winner only has ever won a BC race. Her connections are strong.. A pace factor for sure…. L 8
5 La Nez Smith M E Kruljac J Eric 122 Is a consistent performer for the home team but she has done nothing spectacular to suggest she can win in here. L 20
6 Jungle Tale Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 122 Is in from Canada where she failed to distinguish herself in 4 starts, she seems really up against it in this spot, despite her connections.. L 15
7 House of Grace Luzzi M J McPeek Kenneth G 122 I mentioned earlier about the brilliant season her barn has had and she seems to be coming to the race in impeccable fashion…can't dismiss in here. L 4
8 Lillie Langtry (IRE) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 Aiden said this filly was his best chance to win a BC race. That comment put me over the top on her and she will be my solid selection to win this.. I saw her galloping and she looked fit and ready….reportedly traveled well…all systems go!!! 3
9 Hatheer Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 122 Was beaten by a couple of these in her last off the turf try. She was favored in there and is bred to be a champion. Her early speed may be an asset in a race where the notables come off the pace…Watch out!!! L 10
10 Tapitsfly Albarado R J Romans Dale 122 Been train well according to all known sources…Another with speed to keep an honest pace…she has her work cut out for her here… L 8
11 Junia Tepzia (IRE) Fallon K Schiergen Peter 122 Interesting Italian filly reportedly with talent. Purchased by Team Valor who does well with their acquisitions globally. Off her form, she is a major, major player in this…. 8
12 Lisa's Kitten Leparoux J R Maker Michael J 122 Had to go t o Retama Park to get her latest victory. You would think that says enough about her chances for winning here… L 12
13 Dad's Crazy Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 122 Another overmatched speedster… L 15
14 In the Slips Gomez G K Lloyd James 122 A Mullins acquisition that looks over here head in this kind of spot!!! L 12
Selections 11-8-9-4-7 The Play: Obviously I feel this is one of the tougher races to decipher the outcome of…I feel like #11 can improve in here and if she does then her chance of success is high. I think a boxed exacta of 11-8-9-7-4 is a decent play in here.. Use those plus #2 in multi-race wagers... TOUGH RACE!!!!
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta* Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Daily Double*


5th (1:45)
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies*(G1)
1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds*Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Comments Med. ML
1 Zilva Rose J Motion H Graham 122 Although Motion is one of my favorite trainers, her lack of class and her post position make her a non factor in here.. L 30
2 Ms Vanenzza Rocco J S Jr Vazquez Juan C 122 No reason to believe this filly is anywhere near the best in here.. True throw out… L 30
3 Blind Luck Baze T C Hollendorfer Jerry 122 After she won her last start I told my friend that Dorf might finally win a BC race. Her training was the best of the day according to one of the private clockers and she has a big shot in this… L 3
4 Beautician Albarado R J McPeek Kenneth G 122 McPeek is coming of a training title at Keeneland and this filly had a rough trip in the Alcibiades but was not going to beat the winner anyway…Hmm! L 6
5 Bickersons Rosario J Breen Kelly J 122 I liked her latest workout and her only try here was a decent effort. She may be fully cranked now but this seems ambitious placement.. L 20
6 Connie and Michael Desormeaux K J McPeek Kenneth G 122 Was no secret in her tour de force debut at Keeneland.. I was really impressed. You would think she might need more seasoning than jumping in with the sharks but talent goes a long way in these races. L 4
7 Devil May Care Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 This one is one to pay attention to even though she has never tested the synthetic surface…Was said to be one of TP's best chances this year to win a BC race.. L 8
8 She Be Wild Leparoux J R Catalano Wayne M 122 Was impressive in her wins at Arlington and then disappointed in her try at Keeneland at short odds. Her trainer has won this race before but I think she is of average ability in this field. L 8
9 Champagne d'Oro Garcia M Guillot Eric 122 This trainer has been rather warm lately with young stock….but she seems over her head against these top fillies. L 50
10 Negligee Maragh R Terranova, II John P 122 Was as impressive as a winner can be at Keeneland. Very professional when blocked for a good portion of the stretch, she exploded when she found room and is a major player in here off that win. L 6
11 Always a Princess Gomez G K Baffert Bob 122 Drew poorly for this, but Bob know how to win these kind of races…over bet off of her connections and I will be looking elsewhere for the winner L 5
12 Biofuel Da Silva E R Baker Reade 122 won impressively in the Mazarine at Woodbine but really drew poorly here too…Would need to be a monster to win in here from the wide barrier. L 15
Selections 3-6-10-7-4 The Play: I give the hometown advantage in this race and am going to wheel #3 on top of 6,10,7, and 4…Spreading in this race in the pick 3 using all 5 of my selections and feeling safe to move on to the next leg!!!
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta* Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Daily Double / Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)*


6th (2:23)
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf*(G1)
1 1/4 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up*Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Comments Med. ML
1 Visit (GB) Velazquez J R Frankel Robert 124 Is a confirmed hanging type that could possibly round out a superfecta from the rail but that’s all in my opinion. L 10
2 Forever Together Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 People may want to write her off as a win candidate but I feel like here last was a remarkable effort to be 25 length off the pace and only get beat by 4-5.. She will appreciate the firm going here and is all class… L 5-2
3 Rutherienne Garcia Alan Clement Christophe 124 another who may be past her prime but usually runs a very solid race each time.. I'm not high on her win chances in here but she must be used underneath. L 8
4 Magical Fantasy Solis A Gallagher Patrick 124 Never really been a huge fan of this one but she keeps winning.. It's well documented how I feel about Solis riding on the turf… She will be outkicked by some of these others here. L 3
5 Pure Clan Gomez G K Holthus Robert E 124 Was a tigress last out on the bog at Keeneland…Was impressive for sure though and I guess I have always underrated this one in my mind. L 5
6 Midday (GB) Queally T P Cecil Henry 120 Is reportedly coming in to this race in tip top shape and if that’s the case then she is my bet of the first day of the BC. A master trainer in Cecil said she was short in her last…Watch out for this one to show her superiority to this field. FTL 4
7 Dynaforce Desormeaux K J Mott William I 124 Has always preferred give in the ground which she won't get in here… thought her connections are to be respected, she appears up against it. L 8
8 Maram Lezcano J Brown Chad C 120 Wow…why are they even trying here in this spot.. She could not win last time so why now…I know she is a past champ but this is crazy placement by her connection. L 15
Selections 6-2-5-3 The Play: Clearly #6 is one of my best plays of the entire BC. I think she will make quick work of these gals. A big exacta 6-2, smaller savers on 6-5, 6-3. Midday appears a solid single in the pick 3's!!! Would only consider using #2 on wider multi-race wagers
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta* Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Daily Double / Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)*


7th (3:02)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint*(G1)
7 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up*Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
Prg. # Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Comments Med. ML
1 Free Flying Soul Smith M E Headley Bruce 124 Ambitiously placed in here…no no!!! L 50
2 Sara Louise Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 122 Yes, she has beaten Rachel Alexandra before, and ran a creditable race last out, but the top tow in here seem better than her. L 9-2
3 Game Face Prado E S Pletcher Todd A 124 Is a filly that like to be placed near the front and ran well early on in the year. Her form is tailed off and she is overmatched in G1 races L 10
4 Only Green (IRE) Peslier O Head Freddie 122 Overseas reports are not high on her chances here and neither am I. FTL 20-1
5 Silver Swallow Solis A Headley Bruce 124 Loves SA but has never been able to consistently compete on this level of competition. Pass!!! L 30-1
6 Evita Argentina Rosario J Sadler John W 122 Is a hard trying filly for Sadler but her class and form against the likes of these will be exposed!! L 20-1
7 Informed Decision Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 Has never lost on the synthetic tracks and has beaten Ventura before. Her connections are impeccable, her record is great and her training appears to be tip-top also. Good Chance. L 5-2
8 Seventh Street Maragh R bin Suroor Saeed 124 Godolphin sends two in here and maybe this is the better of them… I still think there are only 2 that can win in here and she is not one of them. L 4
9 Ventura Gomez G K Frankel Robert 124 Yes she will be favored and the outside draw will be no problem for her. The turn of foot she showed in her last race was simply breathtaking. Her win in this race last year was electrifying… This is Gomez's little baby girl…Hold your breath as she will be mowing them down!!! L 8-5
Selections 9-7-8-2 The Play: Another race with absolutely no value…I will be shocked if Ventura gets beat in here exacta 9-7. Tri 9-78-278. Use both 9 &7 in pick 3's…
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta* Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double*


8th (3:45)
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic*(G1)
1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up*Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Comments Med. ML
1 Careless Jewel Landry R C Carroll Josie 121 Is one of my bet against plays of the BC. She will be a low price off of her wins . Her training pattern has left something to be desired here for me and she will be on the lead in here. Not good!!! L 2
2 Life Is Sweet Gomez G K Shirreffs John 124 Stable mate of Zenyatta must be happy not to have to face her again in here. Her races earlier in the year are enough to make her a contender in here, but is she back to that form?? L 8
3 Mushka Desormeaux K J Mott William I 124 Got lucky to be put up in the Spinster.. Yes it was an obvious DQ but she was clearly not the best horse on the day… 12
4 Lethal Heat Solis A Abrams Barry 124 Is an Iron Filly that’s also been chasing the queen. Her heart is as big as they come and she is easy to root for but hard to like on the win end… L 20-1
5 Proviso (GB) Velazquez J R Frankel Robert 124 I feel strongly that she will be a major factor in this race. She was miles the best at Keeneland…Her training since then is focused and brilliant…Call me a huge fan of her win chances… L 8
6 Cocoa Beach (CHI) Migliore R bin Suroor Saeed 124 Apparently she is coming into this race as well as she can if you watch her sharp morning drills. Still underneath is where I find her. L 8
7 Music Note Maragh R bin Suroor Saeed 124 Has been the beast of the east this year but not on synthetic surfaces… She ran ok to be 3rd here last year. L 9-5
8 Rainbow View Leparoux J R Gosden John H M 121 Interesting to see this one show up here on the synthetic…Looked ok at woodbine but her training has looked even better. Watch for this one to run well. L 6
Selections 5-8-2-7 The Play: #5 caught my eye last time and looks well suited for another giant performance. I will use her on top 5-2,7,8 for exactas and tri's 5-278-23678… To be safe use all four in pick 3's and 4's!!! Don't forget to play the Double linking this race to the Classic on Saturday 5 with 3,4,5,10,12


Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / SuperHi5* BC Special Daily Double*

[Chalky]

Very interesting and thorough analysis.

I agree that in the Pick 3 and Pick 4, one should take a stand on Midday.

Good luck.

[fpsoxfan]

Great analysis. Good luck!

[kgar311]

Since Steve says Careless Jewel is not on the top of her game out there I have to go with Proviso here in the ladies classic also. I have to admit CJ was my horse without looking at the form but since looking at Proviso here I think she is the real deal.

Junia Tepzia in the FJT also looks like a monster.