Oracle - Songster

[Scav]

He ran his number in his last race, not sure what the argument was with other people, I'll look it up later,just wanted to let you know

Originally Posted by Scav

He ran his number in his last race, not sure what the argument was with other people, I'll look it up later,just wanted to let you know

So you figure that Beyer is accurate huh? I highly doubt that Court Folly moved that far forward as compared to his most recent races. I also highly doubt that beating Too Much Bling gets you a one point slower number than losing to Court Folly. Its kind of far fetched. Unless you discount the fact that Court Folly was a complete nothing prior to his latest race. Which I simply cannot do.
Songster was on the track this morning. I didn't really see what he did though. I don't know if he breezed or if he just galloped.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

So you figure that Beyer is accurate huh? I highly doubt that Court Folly moved that far forward as compared to his most recent races. I also highly doubt that beating Too Much Bling gets you a one point slower number than losing to Court Folly. Its kind of far fetched. Unless you discount the fact that Court Folly was a complete nothing prior to his latest race. Which I simply cannot do.
Songster was on the track this morning. I didn't really see what he did though. I don't know if he breezed or if he just galloped.

I am talking about his TG number

I also think that Songster can upset Henny in the Kins Bishop. He was just dead short last time and if he fires his "a" race he can beat Henny. Hes kinda like the "Bluegrass Cat" of the King's Bishop.

Originally Posted by Scav

I am talking about his TG number

The only knock I have with any sheet numbers, and have always had, is that when there is a dead rail and you are wide like both of the top two finishers in the Amsterdam, you get credit for being wide when it is in fact a positive. Means you get credit for being wide even though it was indeed the place to be. The inverse is that if you are on a dead rail you don't get any path credit points even though you took the worst of it.
I would caution anyone betting the lats part of this meet and the early part of Belmont Fall to consult with charts and write down the days up here when the rail was no good and inside speed horses were compromised, you better have a lot of ink your pen because their were so damn many. And a few days where the bias was split because of rain that fell during the card or the inverse, when the track started wet and finished dry.

[Scav]

"And I find it beyond incredible that anyone who claims to be an expert could say that the horse ran as well yesterday as he did in his prior races. I have no knowledge of his sheet numbers or Beyer from yesterday's race but its 1-9 that he takes a significant drop in figs on Rags, Thoro graph, and Beyer. To make it sound like he ran his typical race and simply got beaten to me is as far fetched as the tampa bay Devil rays winning the World Series this year.
"

"We simply disagree on that race. His opinion that Songster wasn't as good as advertised in general is one with merit that I happen to agree with. You may remember how gleeful I was when Bling got what I felt was a bad ride and I was lucky to have Songster get a perfect trip that day.
That certainly is a different issue however than the fact that the field he was facing yesterday was less than stellar to say the least. We disagree that he ran the same race as he had always run and I think that when the figs come out you will see that he droppewd severely on both sheet companies and on the beyers."

Ah and the one I was looking for

08-01-2006, 03:05 PM
oracle80
The Curragh Join Date: May 2006
Location: Saratoga
Posts: 2,429

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

The only knock I have with any sheet numbers, and have always had, is that when there is a dead rail and you are wide like both of the top two finishers in the Amsterdam, you get credit for being wide when it is in fact a positive. Means you get credit for being wide even though it was indeed the place to be. The inverse is that if you are on a dead rail you don't get any path credit points even though you took the worst of it.
I would caution anyone betting the lats part of this meet and the early part of Belmont Fall to consult with charts and write down the days up here when the rail was no good and inside speed horses were compromised, you better have a lot of ink your pen because their were so damn many. And a few days where the bias was split because of rain that fell during the card or the inverse, when the track started wet and finished dry.

This I agree with but TG is usually pretty dead on when the rail is dead, ESPECIALLY in NY, at least in my experience

Originally Posted by Scav

"And I find it beyond incredible that anyone who claims to be an expert could say that the horse ran as well yesterday as he did in his prior races. I have no knowledge of his sheet numbers or Beyer from yesterday's race but its 1-9 that he takes a significant drop in figs on Rags, Thoro graph, and Beyer. To make it sound like he ran his typical race and simply got beaten to me is as far fetched as the tampa bay Devil rays winning the World Series this year.
"

"We simply disagree on that race. His opinion that Songster wasn't as good as advertised in general is one with merit that I happen to agree with. You may remember how gleeful I was when Bling got what I felt was a bad ride and I was lucky to have Songster get a perfect trip that day.
That certainly is a different issue however than the fact that the field he was facing yesterday was less than stellar to say the least. We disagree that he ran the same race as he had always run and I think that when the figs come out you will see that he droppewd severely on both sheet companies and on the beyers."

Ah and the one I was looking for

08-01-2006, 03:05 PM
oracle80
The Curragh Join Date: May 2006
Location: Saratoga
Posts: 2,429

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

Hey Scav, the horse was short. A clocker I talked to told me as much the day after the race. Now if you want his number you can feel free to tell a guy who has trained grade one winners and watches every horses work every day that you know more sitting in your house in Chicago, pardon me while I trust in the other guy more ok?

Originally Posted by Scav

This I agree with but TG is usually pretty dead on when the rail is dead, ESPECIALLY in NY, at least in my experience

Whatever you say chief, all I know is that a horse who couldnt win allowance races beat a horse who beat Too Much Bling(who returned to another 500 grander in his next race). If you truly believe that Court Folly improved that much with no regression from the other horse, well good luck. So you must love Court Folly on Saturday then right? To at least get a piece of it?

[Scav]

Just saying, these were things that you said and I said I would note when we got the sheet number, that is all, he paired exactly, three in a row now actually

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Whatever you say chief, all I know is that a horse who couldnt win allowance races beat a horse who beat Too Much Bling(who returned to another 500 grander in his next race). If you truly believe that Court Folly improved that much with no regression from the other horse, well good luck. So you must love Court Folly on Saturday then right? To at least get a piece of it?

Not at all, I am singling HH on every ticket and dropping close to a tuiton bill on him to win

Originally Posted by Scav

Not at all, I am singling HH on every ticket and dropping close to a tuiton bill on him to win

WIthout even knowing how the track is playing? Chance of rain on Friday night into Saturday. Track could be ANYTHING. Better keep an open mind when capping that card to the possibility of different track conditions.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

WIthout even knowing how the track is playing? Chance of rain on Friday night into Saturday. Track could be ANYTHING. Better keep an open mind when capping that card to the possibility of different track conditions.

An earthquake, along with a tornado and hurricane like conditions could be going on AT THE SAME TIME, and HH would still win the race by 3 lengths

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Scav

Not at all, I am singling HH on every ticket and dropping close to a tuiton bill on him to win

Scavs.. how much do you think the HH/Bernadini double will pay?

[Gander]

I read your post before Scavs about Henny possibly hugging the rail and Johnny V trying to shoot through. Are you implying that Henny may possibly not be on the lead in here and try to win this race stalking?

I hope for your sake Henny makes the lead out of the gate because I dont think he passes horses too often. I wouldnt want to relying on Johnny shooting through if I had a tuition payment on him to win. Seems dicey to me.

[Gander]

Scavs.. how much do you think the HH/Bernadini double will pay?

Not even sure one will be offered but if it is, my guess is the double would pay between $4 and $5 for a $2 bet.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Gander

I read your post before Scavs about Henny possibly hugging the rail and Johnny V trying to shoot through. Are you implying that Henny may possibly not be on the lead in here and try to win this race stalking?

I hope for your sake Henny makes the lead out of the gate because I dont think he passes horses too often. I wouldnt want to relying on Johnny shooting through if I had a tuition payment on him to win. Seems dicey to me.

Henny can stalk--I don't think he can close.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Gander

Scavs.. how much do you think the HH/Bernadini double will pay?

Not even sure one will be offered but if it is, my guess is the double would pay between $4 and $5 for a $2 bet.

I don't know for sure, but there usually is.. if so... you think it'll be that low Gander? I know they're both big favs, but Songster and Bluegrass Cat have to take some of that $$ don't they? (and the King's Bishop is a big field.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

Henny can stalk--I don't think he can close.

he can most definitely stalk if needed

Unless they are doing something special, they will not be a double in this race.

I would highly consider a pick three HH/Bern/5 horses

I am going to crunch the numbers tonight and figure some probables, with the best way to make a wager

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Scav

he can most definitely stalk if needed

Unless they are doing something special, they will not be a double in this race.

I would highly consider a pick three HH/Bern/5 horses

I am going to crunch the numbers tonight and figure some probables, with the best way to make a wager

NYRA.com has a double listed for those two races.

http://www.nyra.com/chart/recap.asp?...date=8/26/2006