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#1
06-05-2010, 08:12 AM
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6/5: Belmont Park (Belmont Stakes Day)
Carryover cards at Belmont and Hollywood both proved trickier than they looked Friday as New York went unhit and California returned $65k to clever ducats. At Elmont, Sciacca struck again to contribute to the double carryover into Belmont Stakes Day, with overlay Loyal Shadow, the on top 'Best Value' tab, flying late down the stretch to pay $24.60. At that point, I felt good about the P6 play that was 3 for 3, but the wheels came off the rest of the way. The double carryover is something of a moot point in terms of the pool today given that NYRA is offering a $1,000,000 guarantee anyway. There is also a $1MM P4 on the all stakes 8th-11th. The Belmont card is a varied and fun slate that should produce some surprises. At Inglewood, no 'impossible' horse won, but just enough iffy includes scored to reward those that invested. Hope you did well, and hope you've enjoyed the Met Mile-Belmont Week coverage live from 'American Ascot'...
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 1st: NY-CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Seis de Mayo 6-5 6th Next Best: #7 I Got Swagger 9-2 7th Best Value: #9 Timber Cat 15-1 9th Super Add: #10 Prince Cody 10-1 3rd 2nd: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Tapaline 9-5 WON ($4.30) Best Value: #1 Soo's Purse 6-1 6th Next Best: #7 Gracilla 6-1 2nd Super Add: #4 Eliza Grace 15-1 8th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Best Value: #1e J. Jerkens entry 5-1 WON ($7.00) Next Best: #7 SCR Exotics Use: #6 Wonder Beyond 5-1 9th SCR ADD: #10 Pagan Ruler 15-1 8th 4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Trappe Shot 2-1 WON ($4.50) Best Value: #2 Monte Carlo 8-1 5th Next Best: #6 Zio Tony 4-1 7th Super Add: #1 Top It 15-1 3rd 5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Strong Commitment 5-1 4th Next Best: #6 Cherokee Speed 7-2 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Xodo 10-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Manhattan Fox 3-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 1-2-7 3: 1-6 4: 1-2-3-6-8 5: 3-6 3x2x5x2 = $60 6th: 26th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD) Considering the 5 horse field, a curiously difficult race with the 2 faves coming off flops.. Most Likely: #1 Eightyfiveinafifty 9-5 Next Best: #5 D' Funnybone 2-1 WON ($4.40) Best Value: #2 Remand 10-1 3rd 7th: 17th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Proviso 8-5 WON ($4.20) Best Value: #2 My Princess Jess 4-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Fantasia 5-1 5th 8th: 32nd True North (G2), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 SCR Next Best: #8 Checklist 5-1 3rd Best Value: #7 Elusive Warning 8-1 5th Super Add: #3 Bribon 3-1 WON ($7.50) SCR ADD: #6 Formidable 10-1 4th 9th: 80th Acorn (G1), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Wild assembly of soph filly talent with Oaks runners cutting back and sprinters stretching out. Suppose Amen Hallelujah is the likeliest winner if she runs her "A" race, but there are plenty of alternative scenarios including Jimmy Toner's daughter of the wonderful Soaring Softly (#8) Much Rejoicing who has unlimited upside after two impressive performances in her debut and second start. One implausible but potentially lucrative development could be wickedly fast Champagne d'Oro loose on the lead. She will be an enormous price (30-1 ML with chance to float higher), and could get very brave down the stretch if allowed any leeway early.. Most Likely: #6 Amen Hallelujah 9-2 2nd Next Best: #8 Much Rejoicing 10-1 10th Best Value: #12 Champagne d'Oro 30-1 WON ($81.00) Super Add: #3 Dances With Ashley 20-1 11th 10th: 109th Manhattan (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super) Outstanding, deep edition of this august standard.. Most Likely: #5 Take the Points 9-2 4th Next Best: #1 Gio Ponti 2-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Strike a Deal 12-1 5th Super Add: #9 Just as Well 10-1 10th 11th: 142nd Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD, Super) Slightly offbeat Triple Crown season draws to a close with a very well-matched set of sophomores that offer varying degrees of experience, aptitude and ability. As always, the mile and a half provides the intrigue, and though the Derby and Preakness runners up are the obvious players, the race 'feels' wide open. As I wrote though in the Xpressbet Wagering Guide, horses exiting the TC events have been overwhelmingly successful in the Test of the Champion, and are the keys to my approach today. I'll include Uptowncharlybrown and Stay Put on my tickets as well. Hope you have enjoyed ATR coverage of the Triple Crown, and I hope everyone has a great Belmont Day... Most Likely: #6 Ice Box 3-1 8th Best Value: #4 Make Music for Me 10-1 9th Next Best: #11 First Dude 7-2 3rd Super Add: #9 Stately Victor 15-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 8: 7-8 9: 3-6-8-12 10: 1-2-5 11: 4-6-11 2x4x3x3 = $72 <$250 P6 Play: 6: ALL 7: 5 8: 7-8 9: 6-8 10: 1-2-5 11: 4-6 5x1x2x2x3x2 = 120 x $2 = $240 12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Empty Handed 12-1 4th Next Best: #5 Bold Vindication 6-1 6th Exotics Use: #7 Coronation Day 5-1 9th Super Add: #1 Lt. John 9-2 8th 13th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (Super) Most Likely: #8 Quick Money 5-2 11th Best Value: #10 Conflicted 12-1 2nd Next Best: #9 L. C. Bulgari 5-1 7th Super Add: #2 Mustang Island 7-2 3rd <$75 P4 Play: 10: 1-2-5-11 11: 4-6-11 12: 5-6 13: 8-9-10 4x3x2x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-05-2010 at 09:43 PM. 
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#3
06-05-2010, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
06-05-2010, 10:11 AM
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Custom for Carlos out of the True North..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
06-05-2010, 10:18 AM
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
1ST 1 Gold Prospect Early 3RD 2 (poe) Upper Afleet Early 3 Unprecedented Early 3X Ulterior Motive Early 7 Cheyenne Nation Early 11 Don Cavallo Early 12 Enclosure Early 13 Vision d'Amour Early 4TH 4 Endless Circle Early 5TH 7 Pretty Boy Freud Early 10 Stargleam Early 11 Metulla Early 8TH 2 Custom for Carlos Early 4 Strasbourg Early 9TH 1 Hot Trip Early 12TH 2B Senor Enrico Early 11 Spartan King Early 12 Eagle Strike Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
06-05-2010, 11:01 AM
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Did it rain at BEL last night at all?
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#8
06-05-2010, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
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#9
06-05-2010, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
06-05-2010, 04:54 PM
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Great call on the Guillot longshot in the Acorn.
__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#14
06-05-2010, 04:55 PM
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Thank you Steve! Remarkable call on Champagne D'oro! Your guidance has kept my P4 ticket alive!
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#15
06-05-2010, 05:02 PM
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Thanks Steve I had $5 box exacta 6,8,12 in 9th!! Quick grand!!!
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#16
06-05-2010, 05:03 PM
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I had $1,000,000 to place on the 12. Should've bet her to win!!
Nice call Steve.
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#17
06-05-2010, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"Success does not consist in never making blunders, but in never making the same one a second time." - Josh Billings
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#20
06-05-2010, 10:37 PM
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Thx Team.. This was a nice one. Glad so many benefited as I started getting texts and Email seconds after she crossed the wire. It turned into the kind of day where one good hit could save or make your day, and she was certainly that. ATR listeners also heard the whole funny backstory behind her too. Will be a memorable race.
Long, circuitous day... Hope all did well. Wednesday's P6 becomes the focus!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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