8-1: Saratoga (Day 9-Ruffian; $82k C/O)

[Kasept]

Hope everyone enjoyed a crazy day of action at Saratoga Saturday and are excited about what should be an exceptional day Sunday. Front end was the place to be Saturday, as horses on or near the lead dominated. Pricey winners utilizing pace-setting thievery included Badgett's Exclusive Scheme in the 1st at $52.50, Levine's Quiescent Hit in the 3rd ($17.40), $90.00 Arcodoro from Champagne d'Oro madman Eric Guillot in the 7th and even Wow Wow Wow on the inner turf in the nightcap ($19.80). There was never a question of a carryover after Arcodero's win, and a fat $82k starts the jackpot in today's 5th.

The Jim Dandy result of A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve 1-2, 2-1 all the way around the track bodes well for the Travers, as Jimmy Jerkens' Afleet Express was getting into gear in the last 50 yards and should move forward going the additional eighth of a mile at the end of the month. There is also no reason for Friend or For and Fly Down not to challenge in the Midsummer Classic either, as the surface wasn't allowing for the making of inroads at thew time of the afternoon. Add in Leon Blusiewicz' Admiral Alex, who was as impressive as advertised debuting successfully at 9f in the 2nd, and the cast that will exit the Haskell, and we have the makings of an outstanding, and fascinating, Travers.

Knew I was in for a lousy afternoon Saturday as I struggled over final selections all the way through the changes at 11:00am. Hope you did OK. "At the Races' taping streaming on the Internet this afternoon live from 3-6p featuring all the SAR and MTH action!

LISTEN LIVE LINK


SARATOGA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Note going into Sunday how well speed held on every oval Saturday..

Most Likely: #3 Zip by You 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Bob's Dylan 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Acquired Cat 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #10 Citifiesta 15-1 9th


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Witchy One 5-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Abide 7-2 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Dora 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Bizzy Caroline 15-1 8th


3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Considerate 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 I Dreamt I Was 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Notell 5-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Strikealinethruit 12-1 5th


4th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Stormin Bolt 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Six Flings 10-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #6 Success Fee 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Fenway Faithful 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta Paid $16.60
$1 Trifecta Paid $131.00


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$82k P6 Carryover starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Atlantic Beauty 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Aprilmayjune 4-1 WON ($17.70)
Best Value: #3 Alwaysinmydreams 6-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Magical Feeling 7-2 4th

$1 Exacta Paid $24.90


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-8-9
3: 1-7-9
4: 5-7
5: 2-3-5-10

3x3x2x4 = $72


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Almost a subset of the Lake George run Wednesday. Wonderfully deep and intriguing group of quality ALW gals that should make for a tremendous betting opportunity with 7-2 Its Tea Time and 4-1 Silk Route absolutely no better than the next 8-9 options. This is exactly the kind of race that fans and players are referring to when talk turns to the lack of real horses available to racing secretaries nationwide..

Most Likely: #8 Queen Hazel 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Empire Spring 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Loxy Lady 12-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Beautician 6-1 3rd


7th: 26th Fourstardave H. (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note cross-entries with MTH stake..

Best Value: #6 Wesley 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Pubic Speaker 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Pinckney Hill 3-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Get Stormy 7-2 WON ($5.10)


8th: 2nd Curlin, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Regal Warrior 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Winslow Homer 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #7 So Elite 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Winaholic 4-1 3rd


9th: 35th Ruffian (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Unrivaled Belle 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Malibu Prayer 2-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #3 Starship Angel 12-1 4th


10th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #8 Enniskillen 10-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #11 Jacky Juice 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 My Two Cents 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Sammy's Goodasgold 12-1 DNF

$1 Exacta Paid $$27.00
$1 Trifecta Paid $64.00


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-5
6: 1-4-8
7: 6-8
8: 1-4-7
9: 2
10: 8-11

2x3x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-8-9
8: 1-4-7
9: 2
10: 3-6-7-8-11

5x3x1x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[atolunch]

Steve,

Any thoughts on the Haskell? I'm going with IceBox, looks like it may be tough for closers, but should be an entertaining race.

Best of luck today, and congrats and thanks again for all the insights and sharing the unbelievable tear you've been on!

[declansharbor]

Steve,

May your 'capping 'stay gold' and again BOP the windows over the head. I'm foaming at the mouth to get my meat-hooks all over Notell (3rd race) and Empire Spring (6th race), the latter of which being my play of the day. Knowing that they are your 'next best' horses in their respective races makes me feel more confident in my selections. Both horses should be right there at the finish, or at least their replay's of their last races tell me so.

Best of Luck to everyone on a beautiful day of racing!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Steve,

Any thoughts on the Haskell? I'm going with IceBox, looks like it may be tough for closers, but should be an entertaining race.

Best of luck today, and congrats and thanks again for all the insights and sharing the unbelievable tear you've been on!

Larry,

Ran out of time to get the MTH thoughts out in full... As I said Friday though, I think among the favorites, the Haskell goes through Trappe Shot. Get the feeling that Baffert is still playing from behind with Looking at Lucky after the brief illness, and Super Saver will need to beat me again to garner respect. I think you want Afleet Again in your plays as the right price horse. First Dude is the one to fear as I don't think he has to have the lead but will take it if it comes his way.

MTH 12: 43rd Haskell (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Trappe Shot 3-1
Best Value: #2 Afleet Again 12-1
Next Best: #4 First Dude 6-1
Super Add: #5 Our Dark Knight 15-1

Thank you for the kind compliment. Has been a nice opening quarter to the Spa session... Good luck today!

[Sightseek]

No love for Get Stormy?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Steve,

May your 'capping 'stay gold' and again BOP the windows over the head. I'm foaming at the mouth to get my meat-hooks all over Notell (3rd race) and Empire Spring (6th race), the latter of which being my play of the day. Knowing that they are your 'next best' horses in their respective races makes me feel more confident in my selections. Both horses should should be right there at the finish, or at least their replay's of their last races tell me so.

Best of Luck to everyone on a beautiful day of racing!!

Mike,

G/L today! Agree that there are some very good opportunities today..

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

1-11

2-

3-12, 13, 14, 15, 16

4-

5-11, 12, 13, 14, 15

6-10, 13, 14, 15, 16

7-1, 1a, 5, 10, 11

8-3, 8

9-

10-4

[tjfla]

For Haskell

#7 is scratched