Rachel Alexandra - what would her odds be in the BC Distaff?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If she came out of retirement and trained into the BC Distaff - I think she's probably be an even money favorite or less - and would probably win comfortably.

I don't think Life At Ten would be going on any more suicide missions to press her - and while the Siamese twins at the wire tandem of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck are nice 3yo fillies ... both of them would need a lot more.

The last time RA ran at Churchil - she romped by double digits and her final time was faster than Blame's at the same distance in the Foster that same day. She had that great KY Oaks performance for Hal Wiggins last year.

Cutting back off of a 10f race - where she ran an absolutely supersonic pace figure - she'd be loose and totally unpressured on a cakewalk lead unless someone like Hollendorfer would be able to get a rabbit entered in the race.

Every horse who has ever fought her early in a duel has paid a giant price for it. If she's really healthy ... it's pretty amusing that a horse is retired sound and healthy just a few weeks before going off a strong favorite in a Breeders Cup race.

I see a tight battle for favortisim between Life At Ten and Blind Luck ... with Rachel Alexandra in there - Borel at Churchill - almost certain to be jogging on an unpressured early lead for the first time since the '09 Fantasy Stakes .. that really feels like an even money favorite at most.

[miraja2]

An even-money favorite?!?

Wait....how can that be?

Did you forget to consider that she was a miserable, broken-down horse who hates racing and completely embarrassed herself in every race this year?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I hear ya.

Those people saying stuff like that don't have the slightest clue - and unfortunately - don't actually bet money.

[NoLuvForPletch]

I agree, more than likely a public workout for more than $1M. But I guess when your JJ, is it worth a million dollars to risk something bad happening to what you hope will be producing champion after champion for you? She doesn't have anything to gain by running. My guess is JJ keeps all of her babies, so the BC Distaff champion moniker means nothing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What's to risk? - the odds of racing fatality are pretty remote if he's sound and well.

I have to think the odds of a Jess Jackson fatality before the first RA foal sired by Curlin hits the track are a lot greater.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What's to risk? - the odds of racing fatality are pretty remote if he's sound and well.

I have to think the odds of a Jess Jackson fatality before the first RA foal sired by Curlin hits the track are a lot greater.

Ok Drugs. I laughed. Not bad indeed.

[Thunder Gulch]

Betting odds- probably 6-5.

Fair value odds- 3-1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Betting odds- probably 6-5.

Fair value odds- 3-1

How would she be 3/1 fair value?

Who would be your fair value favorite? Life At Ten? Blind Luck? Havre De Grace?

More importantly - if they came out before the race and said they were sending with RA - who would be willing to go with her on the lead? Life At Ten already tried that once ... and it resulted in a 79 Beyer for her in her only defeat of the entire year. No one would be stupid enough to hook her. She hasn't been allowed an uncontested easy lead since April of '09. She'd jog.

[2Hot4TV]

RA is beat again and we would hear how another improving filly ran a life time top that was to high to chart and beat the Horse of the year. Thats with her racing on her prefered surface, Dirt.

Another lose to add to her money burnin march to the Breeders Cup Classic.

She was great as a 3yo, but even Hal Wiggen's said she was gutted in the Woodward, yet you saw something else. Go figure?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

RA is beat again and we would hear how another improving filly ran a life time top that was to high to chart and beat the Horse of the year. Thats with her racing on her prefered surface, Dirt.

Another lose to add to her money burnin march to the Breeders Cup Classic.

She was great as a 3yo, but even Hal Wiggen's said she was gutted in the Woodward, yet you saw something else. Go figure?

What language is this?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How would she be 3/1 fair value?

Who would be your fair value favorite? Life At Ten? Blind Luck? Havre De Grace?

More importantly - if they came out before the race and said they were sending with RA - who would be willing to go with her on the lead? Life At Ten already tried that once ... and it resulted in a 79 Beyer for her in her only defeat of the entire year. No one would be stupid enough to hook her. She hasn't been allowed an uncontested easy lead since April of '09. She'd jog.

She already lost 3 times this year to ones that aren't good enough for this race. Now throw in Blind Luck and a 10+ horse field.

[cmorioles]

She would have a VERY hard time with Blind Luck if she received any pressure at all. Blind Luck should probably be in the Classic.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If she came out of retirement and trained into the BC Distaff - I think she's probably be an even money favorite or less - and would probably win comfortably.

I don't think Life At Ten would be going on any more suicide missions to press her - and while the Siamese twins at the wire tandem of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck are nice 3yo fillies ... both of them would need a lot more.

The last time RA ran at Churchil - she romped by double digits and her final time was faster than Blame's at the same distance in the Foster that same day. She had that great KY Oaks performance for Hal Wiggins last year.

Cutting back off of a 10f race - where she ran an absolutely supersonic pace figure - she'd be loose and totally unpressured on a cakewalk lead unless someone like Hollendorfer would be able to get a rabbit entered in the race.

Every horse who has ever fought her early in a duel has paid a giant price for it. If she's really healthy ... it's pretty amusing that a horse is retired sound and healthy just a few weeks before going off a strong favorite in a Breeders Cup race.

I see a tight battle for favortisim between Life At Ten and Blind Luck ... with Rachel Alexandra in there - Borel at Churchill - almost certain to be jogging on an unpressured early lead for the first time since the '09 Fantasy Stakes .. that really feels like an even money favorite at most.

Can I please have the moments I wasted reading this post? This ranks up there with the most worthless topics of all time.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I agree, more than likely a public workout for more than $1M. But I guess when your JJ, is it worth a million dollars to risk something bad happening to what you hope will be producing champion after champion for you? She doesn't have anything to gain by running. My guess is JJ keeps all of her babies, so the BC Distaff champion moniker means nothing.

No offense but this warped view of the sport is absolutely ruining the game at the highest level.

[letswastemoney]

How old is Jess Jackson?

Why the heck would he retire Rachel if he's just going to spend his last days looking for the exact same quality? Even a 90% Rachel is VERY difficult to find and you could spend a lifetime without finding a horse this talented.

Good luck with that JJ. What you want is already yours, and apparently you have decided to retire her.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How old is Jess Jackson?

Why the heck would he retire Rachel if he's just going to spend his last days looking for the exact same quality? Even a 90% Rachel is VERY difficult to find and you could spend a lifetime without finding a horse this talented.

Good luck with that JJ. What you want is already yours, and apparently you have decided to retire her.

The reasoning behind retiring the horse seems pretty simple. Jess Jackson knew that he and his filly were going to be overshadowed if she were to run in the Distaff and that she had no shot in the Classic. How much would it kill him if Zenyatta were to win the Classic and dominate the headlines regardless of what RA did??? So he decided to take his ball and go home.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Can I please have the moments I wasted reading this post? This ranks up there with the most worthless topics of all time.

The most worthless topics/posts though that we see are the ones written by you.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The reasoning behind retiring the horse seems pretty simple. Jess Jackson knew that he and his filly were going to be overshadowed if she were to run in the Distaff and that she had no shot in the Classic. How much would it kill him if Zenyatta were to win the Classic and dominate the headlines regardless of what RA did??? So he decided to take his ball and go home.

ding ding ding, we have a winner!

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The reasoning behind retiring the horse seems pretty simple. Jess Jackson knew that he and his filly were going to be overshadowed if she were to run in the Distaff and that she had no shot in the Classic. How much would it kill him if Zenyatta were to win the Classic and dominate the headlines regardless of what RA did??? So he decided to take his ball and go home.

someone said this was a winner...but, i don't know. the woodward and the schedule as a 3 yo was a killer for her. i thought she would retire last year. after she lost and they did not run her in the appleblossom ...i thought she would not race again....but, she did and lost a couple more times to horses that could not touch her the year before. so face it, those saying she was 90% are not even close. she is probably like 80% the horse she was. jackson probably came to his senses (unlike the emotional fan base) and said this horse has had enough. i saw the race up here and we felt bad for her after...she ran her guts out. bullet work outs are meaningless if the horse does not have it in the afternoon. i really believe that jackson did the right thing for this horse....even though he was actually late doing it. he was riding the same emotions that all the people that are mad about it are still riding. it was pretty much over after last season.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No offense but this warped view of the sport is absolutely ruining the game at the highest level.

I never said I wouldn't run her. Nor do I say I agree with the decision not to run her.

But honestly, it does seem as though she has more to lose than to gain running in the Distaff.