1/29: Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, Santa Anita

[Kasept]

Very late start to writing up today's action, but needed to note interesting Friday action at GP with excellent returns in exotics and P3's between the 5th-7th. A troika of solidly-priced winners (9-2; 9-1; 5-1) brought back an outrageous overlay P3 of $633 ($1), while Best Value second suggestion Yes It's Valid ($13.80) tripped a $115 exacta and $444 triple when heavily favored Dee's Rose failed to hit the board. That was followed up by Exotics Use third choice Rockin Robbie ($20.80) wiring the 6th ahead of Best Value top tab Newsdad ($12.00) for the generous P3. Bill Mott had told you all that was necessary to know about Jim Karp's homebred when he visited ATR Wednesday. I was live for $1,200 in P3 payoffs to a pair going in to the 8th, but ran 4th and 5th with Major Momentum and Took It From Him to end the nice run.

I point out the P3 opportunities because I received an Email asking about ways to cut down costs of the P4 or P5. Yesterday was another example of how the overlays in the 'blind' pools at Gulfstream continue to be pay crazily above the parlay, and may be a perfect budget target. Given that P3 plays can be of the modest $8-$12 or $18-$24 variety, they offer a great alternative to those that don't want to spend $50-$100 on P5's or P4's.

Hope you did well Friday afternoon, and I hope some jumped aboard Jelly Cable, the Jamgotchian Sky Mesa named at my suggestion, who paid a generous $13.20 acing her career bow at Turfway later in the evening! Tons of action today from AQU to GP, FG to SA! Sunshine Millions and many more quality sequences around.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Will try to beat 2-1 Coljak who couldn't compete with NY ALW foes at FL 100 days ago but is suddenly supposed to best these off $7,500 claiming form?

Most Likely: #1 Gold Close to Home 5-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Barrel of Love 20-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Thunder Chief 4-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #5 Mr. Hooker 10-1 7th


6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Conflicted 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hadif 12-1 WON ($28.80)
Next Best: #13 Sound Chaser 9-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Hasten to Be King 20-1 12th


7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Key will be how easy Fuzzy's Story gets it on front end under Ramon. Interesting scenarios abound here..

Best Value: #9 Persian Ruler 20-1 WON ($66.00)
Next Best: #5 Fuzzy's Story 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Studley 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Admiralty 20-1 9th

$1 Pick 3 (4-5-9) Paid $1,635.00


8th: 71st Correction, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Meese Rocks 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Kid Kate 5-2 WON ($4.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Purrfect Bluff 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Honor Hymm 12-1 4th

$1 Pick 3 (5-9-6) Paid $1,129.50


9th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Lucky Leslie 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bellariffic 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Affable Athena 15-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Raffie's Bebe 8-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-13
7: 2-5-9
8: 6-8
9: 2-6-9-12

3x3x2x4 = $72



GULFSTREAM


POSt-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Haggai 3-1 4th
Best Value: #12 Girl Bar 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Fly Express 4-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Bella Moneta 6-1 WON ($16.60)


8th: 9th SunMill F&M Sprint, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tough to get overly enthused about embracing 3-1 Amen Hallelujah off the 7 month disappearence..

Most Likely: #3 Belle of the Hall 4-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Amen Hallelujah 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Wildcat Heiress 6-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Musical Romance 12-1 4th


9th: 9th SunMill F&M Turf, F&M-4+, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

SCRATCH NOTE: #15-AE Jet Blue Girl (15-1) has drawn in to the race, and while not necessarily a win candidate, could ignite exotic tix with Garcia aboard and forward progress identifiable in her form cycle..

Best Value: #8 Omega Cat 15-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Dynaslew 7-2 13th
Exotics Use: #5 Askbut I Won'ttell 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Trip for A. J. 6-1 WON ($14.40)


10th: 9th SunMill, 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 First Dude 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Duke of Mischief 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Birdrun 3-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Dry Martini 8-1 5th


11th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 9f (Super)

Best Value: #2 Wulfgar 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: ##6 Bull Hole 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 SCR
Super Add: #8 Stern 6-1 6th


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 3-9-11-12
8: 3-7
9: 5-8-9
10: 1-2-5
11: 2-6

4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-7-10
9: 1-2-4-5-8-9
10: 1-2-5
11: 2-6

4x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72



FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Battle Buster 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Frances Gardner 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Quick Breeze 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Born Indy U S A 5-1 WON ($12.20)


7th: OC/C, 4+, 1m-70y (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Glenwood Canyon 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Smarten Destiny 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Fast Alex 2-1 3rd


8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tapativity 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Sporting Holiday 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Santo Gato 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Smarter Than Ever 8-1 5th


9th: LA-OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #4 Ide Ball 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Seven Mile Bridge 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Hud's Rebel 5-1 WON ($7.20)


10th: Marie Krantz Memorial H., F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Single Solution 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Forest Uproar 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Avie's Tale 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 In the Slips 5-1 4th


11th: LA-MDN CLM, 4&5yo, 1m-70y (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Disco Bid 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #3 Kasos Pride 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 First Down Kory 9-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Generous Offer 3-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-4-9-12
9: 1-2-4
10: 3-5-7
11: 2-3-9-6

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: 9th SunMill Sprint, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Apriority 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Cost of Freedom 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Don Tito 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Quick Enough 4-1 6th


6th: 9th SunMill Turf, 4+, 9f-Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Jeranimo 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 The Usual Q. T. 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Caracortado 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #8 Precious Passion 4-1 5th


7th:SunMill Distaff, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Evening Jewel 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #4 Amazing 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 All Due Respect 3-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Briecat 4-1 5th


8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Pack Your Bags 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Detroit Donnie 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Sterling Outlook 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Domonation 4-1 4th


9th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Word Association 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Hot Affair 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Hopeful Union 5-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Serene Sophia 9-2 6th


10th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-Turf (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 A Lil Dumaani 9-2 -
Next Best: #3 Stoneside 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Exclamation 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Moudez 6-1 -
Hi-5 Play: #2 Galleta Monstruo 12-1 -


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-7
8: 2-6-7-8
9: 2-4-7
10: 3-5-6

2x4x3x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Very late start to writing up today's action, Steve

You're allowed to sleep in a Saturday or two, I'm sure Tina would agree!

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

GP SCR/CHG'S

FG SCR/CHG'S

[Ronnie]

Nice start to your BIg A pick 4. Good luck the rest of the way!

[randallscott35]

Fantastic pick 4 going. I am pulling for you.

[pointman]

Great call on Persian Ruler!! I am live in this pk4 as well, but to only the 2,4,12 in the last. Hopefully both of us to get this home, Good Luck!!!

[jms62]

Bring it home guys..

[infield_line]

that hurt

[jimmy the T]

thank you steve, thank you so very much. 2 monster pik 3's just got home from otb with 2 signers. WOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[dagolfer33]

I'm about to vomit........congrats Nick.

[Scav]

I have a feeling that Cost of Freedom is vunerable today. The workout reports say that he is 'being held together' and real dirt is a question, his last races were against short fields and I think he is gonna be tested the whole way around.

Thanks Steve, I too just got back from the OTB here in sunny AZ with a nice hit at AQU with your numbers in the P4 for a P3. Thanks again, AZDave

[Kasept]

Was out all afternoon... Happy some were able to take advantage of the wild results at Aqueduct today, but I'm very sorry for those who were let down in the the anchor leg. It was inexcusable to leave the Levine filly off the play, but she looked so crippled on the worktab that I let the doubts guide me. It was a bad bunch and it prompted a bad decision. The preceeding P3's and win totes were obviously wonderful rewards for having high opinions of Mr. Hafif's and Persian Ruler's chances, so at least there was that. Not much else went particularly right the rest of the day, but I hope everyone did OK. Sitting down to get back at it for tomorrow...

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by Kasept

but I'm very sorry for those who were let down in the the anchor leg.

I let myself down, I had all four horses that comprised the super in the last............I didnt use Persian Ruler. Thanx for all the hard work Steve, your opinions are helping alot.

[PSH]

Steve
Wonderful handicapping at AQU
Just wanted to let you know I played doubles in races 6 to 7 and 7 to 8 and hit them both
Thanks so much and my best to you and Tina
paul