3/5: Gulfstream (5th-11th); Santa Anita (P4's)

[Kasept]

Took a nice swing at Thursday's bulky P6 carry at Santa Anita, but as anticipated, tricky skein had too many mid-priced horses to get on one ticket. The sequence didn't have a horse that reached 5-1, but still produced a $30k payout, as 'everyone's' single, (Baffert's Ranchero), fell to the second choice. Had 5 winners somewhere in the tabs, and focusing on Kathy Walsh's firster in the nightcap was a strong notion, but Marty Jones' 6th race winner Tonzatrouble was a horse I couldn't identify as a contender.

Hope you did well, and I know Brad Free and Rich Eng's input was invaluable as I've heard from several listeners who benefitted from ATR's coverage of the opportunity. On that note, HRTV's Kurt Hoover and DRF's Mike Welsch joined Gus, Nick, Hammer and I Friday to finetooth the good action at Gulfstream and Santa Anita today, and there could be many fruitful spots on which to capitalize at Hallandale and Arcadia.


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Getting late in the winter stands, but this event and Santa Anita's 6.5f 2nd (3:33p ET) well worthy of attention with sizeable number of potentially important sophs debuting or returning in both. Zito has a buzz colt in Bomber Boy, a debuting half brother of Summerly (whose first foal Kentucky Reign goes in the 7th) by Bernardini. But that one will need to be pretty special to win at first asking given the presence of Benergy, Jack London, Borrego's Boy, Fire With Fire and Break Up the Game, who all are eligible to score having already made their career bows against some fancy types..

Most Likely: #9 Break Up the Game 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Jack London 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Borrego's Boy 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Benergy 8-1 6th


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Indy's Alexandra 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Super Slash 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Folk Dancer 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Honchis'n Ponchis 5-2 2nd


7th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Exceedingly tricky race where lawn aptitude and rider savvy will spell difference. With potential pyrite littered throughout, you want to take chances with players that will provide value and have things to like about them. Toner first turf/first as soph Empiricist is bred stoutly up and down for today's assignment and is going to be utterly ignored on tote. And though I've tabbed obvious types from Mott, Brown and Kimmel underneath, 10-1 McPeek (1), 6-1 Pompay (2), 10-1 McGaughey and 12-1 Clement (12) all are worth employing in a race like this if you see something that bends your diving rod..

Best Value: #6 Empiricist 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Kentucky Reign 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Casino Host 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #5 Bombaguia 8-1 4th


8th: OC/N3X, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Sprint stake disguised as an OC/ALW..

Most Likely: #1 Apriority 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #9 Tahitian Warrior 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Aikenite 4-1 2nd


9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Another superb group..

Most Likely: #1 Baletti 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Avenuesnalleyways 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Alfarabi 4-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Kindergarten Kid 8-1 6th


10th: 26th Honey Fox (G3), F&M-4+, 1m-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Deep and contentious, and like the rest of the turf tests today, all about price and trip. As I said Friday on ATR, Bay to Bay makes first start as 4yo, often an effort to flash improvement, is in hands of clever conditioner/ace pilot, and will be long on the board. Will need to pass many of them in the late stages, but is the right candidate at the right number..

Cherokee Queen a LATE SCR (2:15pm)

Best Value: #11 Bay to Bay 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Never Retreat 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Aviate 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Trip for A. J. 6-1 4th


11th: MSW, F&M-4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Making it to this nightcap in the multis will be small consolation if tripped up by this solid group of relatively light-raced diploma seeking lawn distaffers. Deanallen'skitten appears 'better' than rest on paper, but that was true all the way back to Spa start!

Best Value: #1 Little Red Rider 12-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Deanallen'skitten 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rockettes Escapade 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sandesque 6-1 11th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 4-5-6-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-9
10: 5-7-8-11
11: 1-10

4x1x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-7-9
9: 1-2-4-9
10: 5-7-8-11
11: 1-3-10

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (Place P10, P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Trumpet Player Jay 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Justice Reigns 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 High Standards 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Seven Secrets 4-1 5th


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

As foreshadowed above, a fascinating group with several here possible for upper levels of division..

Most Likely: #2 Chico d'Oro 8-5: Edged by Albergatti; Repeat makes him tough at short number.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Rock So Hard 8-1: Baffert colt gets first try over a dirt main track.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Wilburn 5-2: Steady working $625k KEE yrlg from Stonestreet (Bernardini-Moonlight Sonata).. WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #1 Purely Awesome 6-1: Chased Albergatti & Chico in debut; Threat with improvement.. 2nd


3rd: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Classy Lion 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #8 Honor Among Us 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Diamond Touch 4-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Ransom Demand 7-2 6th


4th: 72nd Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

As Kurt Hoover pointed out Friday on ATR, race didn't really need many more considering balanced, well-matched bunch that assembles. At anything close to the 4-1 ML, Baffert's returning A Z Warrior is the right fresh face..

Best Value: #5 A Z Warrior 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Turbulent Descent 1-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Zazu 2-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-2-6
2: 2-3-7
3: 1-5-8-10
4: 5 (2-3-4)

Singling A Z Warrior:: 3x3x4x1 = $36 (Or $72 at $2)
Regular ticket: 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


5th: 2nd Clocker's Corner, F&M-4+, 6.5f-Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Top 3 finishers from G3 Monrovia plus some new shooters make this a terrific event..

Most Likely: #8 Unzip Me 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #9 Broken Dreams 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Reba Is Tops 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Ash Zee 3-1 6th


8th: Cal-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Liberal Arts 9-2 9th
Best Value: #5 Cat Talk 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Kingpin Ryno 4-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Tiz a Budman 6-1 WON ($11.60)


9th: 11th Kilroe (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent race but Jon White's sharp line means you have to find a price to make this a worthwhile betting affair. For me it's Mandella's 2nd/break Times Gone By who has several pattern positgives to like as I outlined onj ATR Friday..

Most Likely: #2 Fluke 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Times Gone By By 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Caracortado 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Jeranimo 3-1 3rd


10th: 74th Santa Anita Handicap (G1), 4+, 10f (DD, Super)

As was the case in the Malibu and Strub, the decision is whether or not you believe Twirling Candy is a bet against or too imposing to deny. On the con side, a 10th furlong is frequently the dividing mark between elongated sprint speed ability, which can get a mile and an eighth, and classic routing stayers. The fave is going to receive sustained pace pressure in this setting with a number of front end types involved including enigmatic First Dude who makes his first start for Bob Baffert off a series of sharp works and looms the play at anywhere close to his 5-1 ML..

Most Likely: #8 First Dude 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Twirling Candy 4-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Soul Candy 30-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Aggie Engineer 6-1 9th


11th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Excelling 5-1 10th
Best Value: #12 Le' Heat 20-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Renegade Storm 9-2 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #1 SCR
Hi-5 Play: #7 Short Memo 12-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7
9: 2-3-4-8-9
10: 5-8
11: 1-5-6-7-12

3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[athornton5]

Steve- Bay to Bay is #11 in the 10th race, not #10

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by athornton5

Steve- Bay to Bay is #11 in the 10th race, not #10

Got it! THX a/t.. G/L today..

[asudevil]

I think the other Dude is sitting on a big one.

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

GP SCR/CHG'S

CHEROKEE QUEEN IS A LATE STAKES SCR!

[Kasept]

Wowza! Nice debut by Wilburn..

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wowza! Nice debut by Wilburn..

He took a lot of $$ as well esp. in a race with a heavy favorite...........

I agree, that was a terrific race by Wilburn - he's pretty huge, maybe 17 hands?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Betsy

He took a lot of $$ as well esp. in a race with a heavy favorite...........

I agree, that was a terrific race by Wilburn - he's pretty huge, maybe 17 hands?

Took a lot of money? He was the 5-2 2nd choice on the morning line. He went off at 7-2. What should he have been?

I'll ask Scott Blasi how tall he is.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Betsy

He took a lot of $$ as well esp. in a race with a heavy favorite...........

I agree, that was a terrific race by Wilburn - he's pretty huge, maybe 17 hands?

He was the 2nd choice at 5/2 in the ML and looked like the only alternative to the favorite. Of course he took some money.

Go AP Indy!!!

[Kasept]

They just showed Spectacular Bid's 1980 Big Cap on the SA feed. Pretty amazing..

[Sightseek]

Heck of a race from Apriority!

[Dahoss]

I can't believe I used Tahitian Warrior. In terms of horrible Godolphin buys, and there have been many, he might be the worst.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Heck of a race from Apriority!

He was awesome. Watching the SunMill race from SA, you could see that he was getting sharp. I was a tad surprised Fawkes used him here. He'd have dusted the Tom Fool today. Fawkes really has a nice touch with one turn horses. I know that's trite, but he just seems to fine tune sprinters. The way he handled Take d' Tour made me really think he was a good trainer.

[Kasept]

7-1 on A Z Warrior is crazy attractive...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I can't believe I used Tahitian Warrior. In terms of horrible Godolphin buys, and there have been many, he might be the worst.

LOL.. I used all 3 in the P4 but singled Apriority in the P5.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

He was awesome. Watching the SunMill race from SA, you could see that he was getting sharp. I was a tad surprised Fawkes used him here. He'd have dusted the Tom Fool today. Fawkes really has a nice touch with one turn horses. I know that's trite, but he just seems to fine tune sprinters. The way he handled Take d' Tour made me really think he was a good trainer.

Take d' Tour is one of my favorite runners ever!

Turns out it's just another ugly Grade 1 with chalk.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Take d' Tour is one of my favorite runners ever!

I got to be around her a little when David was handling my man Malcolm's Funny Boy. She was nice.