Breeders Cup Juvenile Subsequent Form

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Believe it or not - only four horses have run back from that race ...

Rouge Romance - 3rd beaten 10.25 lengths with a 90 Beyer. Was 3rd trying to close against a slow pace when 1st off layoff in Risen Star - ran an 89

Stay Thirsty - 5th by 14.5 lengths with a 83 Beyer. Won the Gotham with an 89 in first start off of layoff.

JP's Gusto - 6th by 15.5 lengths with a 81 Beyer. Was 2nd at 9/2 odds with a 92 figure next out in the Gr 1 Hollywood Futurity. Was 2nd in the Southwest with an 87 in his return to dirt.

Riveting Reason - 8th by 16.25 lengths with a 79 Beyer. Has run Beyers of 88 and 90 in his two subsquent starts on dirt - including a nose defeat in the Grade 2 Bob Lewis Stakes.


Everybody to run back has made the kind of improvment you expect from a healthy young colt.

It gives you an idea of what should be expected of Uncle Mo and Jaycito on Saturday. If any horse had a right to improve - it was Jaycito. He was all over the friggen track.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Believe it or not - only four horses have run back from that race ...

Rouge Romance - 3rd beaten 10.25 lengths with a 90 Beyer. Was 3rd trying to close against a slow pace when 1st off layoff in Risen Star - ran an 89

Stay Thirsty - 5th by 14.5 lengths with a 83 Beyer. Won the Gotham with an 89 in first start off of layoff.

JP's Gusto - 6th by 15.5 lengths with a 81 Beyer. Was 2nd at 9/2 odds with a 92 figure next out in the Gr 1 Hollywood Futurity. Was 2nd in the Southwest with an 87 in his return to dirt.

Riveting Reason - 8th by 16.25 lengths with a 79 Beyer. Has run Beyers of 88 and 90 in his two subsquent starts on dirt - including a nose defeat in the Grade 2 Bob Lewis Stakes.


Everybody to run back has made the kind of improvment you expect from a healthy young colt.

It gives you an idea of what should be expected of Uncle Mo and Jaycito on Saturday. If any horse had a right to improve - it was Jaycito. He was all over the friggen track.

Does Jaycito have a Facebook page?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

You should start one.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Believe it or not - only four horses have run back from that race ...

Wasn't there only like 6 horses in the race to begin with?

It gives you an idea of what should be expected of Uncle Mo and Jaycito on Saturday. If any horse had a right to improve - it was Jaycito. He was all over the friggen track.

I think you're being a little too absolute with the "improvement" claim. JP's Gusto and Riveting Reason have raced enough pre-and-post BC to be known quantities. While their Beyer figures may have crept up slightly, I wouldn't hold my breath for further advancement.

Generally speaking, Pletcher 3yos come back with their best stuff right of the bench, if Stay Thirsty's lugging in 89 is the best he can uncorked, that bottle might already be empty (all those puns intended).

I don't even want to discuss Rogue Romance until he actually threatens to reach contention in a race on the main track.

[blackthroatedwind]

I should hope the top 2YOs of a given year improve in subsequent starts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Wasn't there only like 6 horses in the race to begin with?

10 horse field. The race was over 4 months ago - and only 40% of the field has run back.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think you're being a little too absolute with the "improvement" claim. JP's Gusto and Riveting Reason have raced enough pre-and-post BC to be known quantities. While their Beyer figures may have crept up slightly, I wouldn't hold my breath for further advancement.

Generally speaking, Pletcher 3yos come back with their best stuff right of the bench, if Stay Thirsty's lugging in 89 is the best he can uncorked, that bottle might already be empty (all those puns intended).

I don't even want to discuss Rogue Romance until he actually threatens to reach contention in a race on the main track.

regarding the improvement claim - I only said they "made the kind of improvment you expect from a healthy young colt"

I don't know if I agree that Pletcher's 3yo's "come back with their best stuff right of the bench" .... there was a pretty strong pattern last year of them improving sharply 2nd off the layoff - running about as strong 3rd off the layoff ... and a lot of them fell hard to injury... and the ones that don't rarely get any better and are more likely to go backwards.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I should hope the top 2YOs of a given year improve in subsequent starts.

The healthy ones should anyway.

A LOT of them don't. Especially with fillies.

You had a three year run where the champion 2yo fillies were Tempera, Storm Flag Flying, and Halfbridled. All of them were pretty awesome 2yo fillies whos form took a sharp nose dive.

[blackthroatedwind]

No sane person doubts that if Uncle Mo moves forward, all the other 3YOs are in major trouble. It's a complete mismatch. However, others moving forward doesn't increase the chances of Uncle Mo doing so....or staying sound.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Generally speaking, Pletcher 3yos come back with their best stuff right of the bench.

Here was a picture I posted in a thread I started about Super Saver last year. At the time - Super Saver was 3rd in the Tampa Derby to Oddyseus and Schoolyard Dreams - first off the layoff - without any excuse.

These are all Todd Pletcher trained horses improving sharply 2nd off the layoff last winter.




In a lot of cases ... you'd get a blah race 1st off the layoff ... followed by a huge race 2nd off the layoff. The 3rd race off the layoff was typically also a strong one.

Most of these horses got injured or ran like the life had been sucked out of them by the end of the season. Super Saver obviously included.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No sane person doubts that if Uncle Mo moves forward, all the other 3YOs are in major trouble. It's a complete mismatch. However, others moving forward doesn't increase the chances of Uncle Mo doing so....or staying sound.

I never said it did.

The whole point - and I know it was kind of a MOTO one - was "It gives you an idea of what should be expected of Uncle Mo and Jaycito on Saturday." ... if they are healthy.

I say that because there have been some questions and rumors surrounding the health of both horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The finalists for the '2010 Todd Pletcher Profile in Equine Courage' award would have to be Quality Road, Life At Ten, and Malibu Prayer.

While the life was sucked out of them - at least they were the trio that stood up to his stuff all year and stayed sound enough to make the Breeders Cup.

QR and Malibu Prayer both ran about 60 Beyers in the BC - and Life At Ten ran the best of the trio because at least she had a visable excuse.

Pletcher had no other runners in the Distaff, Classic, Sprint, BC Turf, or BC Mile. Just those three. Quality Road last by a mile. Life At Ten and Malibu Prayer a long way behind everyone else in the Distaff.

They were certainly the stables warriors.

Devil May Care, Eskendreya, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, Battle Plan, Understatement, etc etc etc all fell from the riggors.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The finalists for the '2010 Todd Pletcher Profile in Equine/Handicapper Courage' award would have to be Quality Road, Life At Ten, and Malibu Prayer.

Cant forget all the $ burned on blind faith.

[randallscott35]

As was pointed out, horses improve from 2 to 3. Not shocking.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In a lot of cases ... you'd get a blah race 1st off the layoff ... followed by a huge race 2nd off the layoff. The 3rd race off the layoff was typically also a strong one.

Nice collection of older horses and grass mares. Any 3yos with 2yo form on dirt besides Eskendereya?

I think you made a big stink about Devil May Care getting ear-twitched in the gate at FG and IIRC the pseudo-sprinter Discreetly Mine was banged around on the inside in the sloppy Spectacular Bid, so I'm withdrawing those from consideration.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

As was pointed out, horses improve from 2 to 3. Not shocking.

Point totally missed.

However ... here are some of the past BC Juvie winners...

'09: Vale of York
'08: Midshipman
'07: War Pass
'05: Stevie Wonderboy
'04: Wilko
'03: Action This Day
'02: Vindiacation (at least he never raced again)
'01: Johanesburgh
'00: Macho Uno (injury's kept him out till he lost an alw comeback at SAR)
'99: Anees
"98: Answer Lively
'97: Favorite Trick
'96: Boston Harbor

And that group looks like a stellar collection of improvers compared with the fillies.

Obviously - most of the ones above didn't improve because of physical issues. Some like Favorite Trick were just very precocious sprinters. A lot of them raced in poor 2-year-old crops.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nice collection of older horses and grass mares. Any 3yos with 2yo form on dirt besides Eskendereya?

Of the big names ... Super Saver and Mission Impaz off the top of my head ... to go along with Esk, Devil May Care, and Discreetly Mine

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Point totally missed.

However ... here are some of the past BC Juvie winners...

'09: Vale of York
'08: Midshipman
'07: War Pass
'05: Stevie Wonderboy
'04: Wilko
'03: Action This Day
'02: Vindiacation (at least he never raced again)
'01: Johanesburgh
'00: Macho Uno (injury's kept him out till he lost an alw comeback at SAR)
'99: Anees
"98: Answer Lively
'97: Favorite Trick
'96: Boston Harbor

And that group looks like a stellar collection of improvers compared with the fillies.

Obviously - most of the ones above didn't improve because of physical issues. Some like Favorite Trick were just very precocious sprinters. A lot of them raced in poor 2-year-old crops.

That is one horse in each race. Take the entire group they raced against and you see something different.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of the big names ... Super Saver and Mission Impaz off the top of my head ... to go along with Esk, Devil May Care, and Discreetly Mine

Well, the difference with Stay Thirsty is that he showed up with a winning effort, but didn't run particularly fast. I take that as a sign that he's more or less at his ceiling. Aside from Eskendereya, the others you mentioned had an array of excuses (eg off track, gate trouble, long layoffs, etc.) in their comebacks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Cant forget all the $ burned on blind faith.

Pletcher's horses who star in the winter - and somehow survive injury - all went through withdrawls in the Breeders Cup last year.

People call Quality Road "a miler" .. he was already trailing Pleasant Prince after a mile in the BC Classic... and the jock hadn't yet even moved on PP.

The Quality Road who showed up that day wouldn't have been competitive with $15,000 claimers. Something was seriously wrong with him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That is one horse in each race. Take the entire group they raced against and you see something different.

Now you're catching on. The healthy ones improved. The ones with issues mostly did not.