Hypothetical Derby Trainer Prop Bet

[dalakhani]

Is there a prop/future bet available right now where you can bet on a trainer to win the derby?

Where would you set the odds for Todd Pletcher to win the 2011 derby? It would seem to me that he would have to be no higher than 2/1 but that's just pulling a number out of the air based on uncle mo's closing odds in pool 1 along with his other contenders. Would 2-1 be a good price?

Where would you set baffert's line?

If this is a widely available wager, please pardon my ignorance.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

DrugSFair.com odds:

Todd Pletcher: 5/2
Bob Baffert: 6/1
Nick Zito: 8/1
Kiaran McLaughlin: 10/1
Bill Mott: 10/1
Ken McPeak: 18/1
Steve Asmussen: 20/1
Kathy Ritvo: 20/1
John Sadler: 25/1
Neil Howard: 30/1
Cannon Shell: 90/1

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

DrugSFair.com odds:

Todd Pletcher: 5/2
Bob Baffert: 6/1
Nick Zito: 8/1
Kiaran McLaughlin: 10/1
Bill Mott: 10/1
Ken McPeak: 18/1
Steve Asmussen: 20/1
Kathy Ritvo: 20/1
John Sadler: 25/1
Neil Howard: 30/1
Cannon Shell: 90/1

5/2 on Pletcher is a joke and you obviously aren't thinking clearly.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'd make Uncle Mo either 7/2 or 4/1 right now.

After him - you have what - Stay Thirsty (50/1) Bretheran (50/1) Cal Nation (50/1)

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'd make Uncle Mo either 7/2 or 4/1 right now.

After him - you have what - Stay Thirsty (50/1) Bretheran (50/1) Cal Nation (50/1)

I smell a second bet in 7 hours.

Will you seriously give me 50-1 on Bretheren and Stay Thirsty?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

I smell a second bet in 7 hours.

Will you seriously give me 50-1 on Bretheren and Stay Thirsty?

Bretheren is going to take such an easy path into the KY Derby - and because of his pedigree and connections - he's almost certain to be wildly overbet. It's pretty safe i'll be playing against him in the markets if he wins soft at Tampa.

Stay Thirsty will also be MUCH shorter than 50/1 if he makes the race - but I'd put his true chances at that right now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bretheren is going to take such an easy path into the KY Derby - and because of his pedigree and connections - he's almost certain to be wildly overbet. It's pretty safe i'll be playing against him in the markets if he wins soft at Tampa.

Stay Thirsty will also be MUCH shorter than 50/1 if he makes the race - but I'd put his true chances at that right now.

Be kind to Justin, he's not very good at math.

You actually think Stay Thirsty is 2% to win the Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

DrugSFair.com odds:

Todd Pletcher: 5/2
Bob Baffert: 6/1
Nick Zito: 8/1
Kiaran McLaughlin: 10/1
Bill Mott: 10/1
Ken McPeak: 18/1
Steve Asmussen: 20/1
Kathy Ritvo: 20/1
John Sadler: 25/1
Neil Howard: 30/1
Cannon Shell: 90/1

I can scrape up 1/2 a mil and will go all in that Cannon Shell will not win the derby if anyone is interested.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

DrugSFair.com odds:

Todd Pletcher: 5/2
Bob Baffert: 6/1
Nick Zito: 8/1
Kiaran McLaughlin: 10/1
Bill Mott: 10/1
Ken McPeak: 18/1
Steve Asmussen: 20/1
Kathy Ritvo: 20/1
John Sadler: 25/1
Neil Howard: 30/1
Cannon Shell: 90/1

If you moved Cannon Shell up to 175/1, I'd like it for 10 pesos please.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

If you moved Cannon Shell up to 175/1, I'd like it for 10 pesos please.

I'm fearful GBBob/Cannon Shell are going to a pull a War Emblem move - and buy something that wins the fastest Derby prep race.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

It best represents the odds in which I'd have no interest taking either side on - in an exchange.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

Pretty much.

As DrugS said, it's the price I have no interest in betting.

If I could have booked Backtalk at 20:1, or even 30:1, it was free money. I bet he was offered MUCH higher on exchanges with nobody biting. That is the Giacomo Factor.